Swing State Pres

Monday, August 6, 2012

Dashboard Update: Getting the Red Out (August 6, 2012)

There was some major movement in the Dashboard this week, all of it favorable to Obama.  He “got the red out” on the Charisma Factor and regained his supremacy there.  The Obameter turned a bit bluer.  Perhaps more importantly, swing state polling gaps increased in the big races, and national polls widened as well. 

We’ll see if Harry Reid’s audacious attacks do further damage to Romney this week.  Harry has no scruples and is very cagey….he’s claimed that a “credible source” told him that Romney has paid no taxes in the last ten years.  Romney denies it and Republicans are (rightly) sputtering with rage at the unsubstantiated claims.  Harry doesn’t care and knows that any day Romney is talking about his own taxes is a day the news cycle is not focused on the economy.

The Obameter.  The Obameter increased significantly, up to +12.3.  This means that since January, when the race was a dead heat, the macro environment has gone Obama’s way:  the unemployment rate, while it ticked up a notch in July, is below the January baseline.  The stock market is up 1,000 points.  Consumer confidence is edging up.  Gas prices rose and then fell.  Romney’s favorability rating went up and then fell off a bit.  And last week was a particularly good week as most measures went Obama’s way.

Obameter
Baseline




1-Jan
23-Jul
30-Jul
3-Aug
Unemployment Rate
8.7
8.2
8.2
8.3
Consumer Confidence
65.0
62.0
62.0
65.9
Price of Gas (average for week)
3.32
3.49
3.51
3.51
Dow-Jones (average for week)
      12,076
      12,842
       12,796
       13,006
Romney Favorability (average)
38.0
43.1
43.1
43.0
"Events"
0
5
5
5





Unemployment Rate
0.0
5
5
4
Consumer Confidence
0.0
-3
-3
1
Price of Gas (average for week)
0.0
-2
-2
-2
Dow-Jones (average for week)
0.0
8
7
9
Romney Favorability (average)
0.0
-5
-5
-5
"Events"
0.0
5
5
5





OBAMETER
0.0
7.9
7.2
12.3
Obama versus Romney
1.1
0.2
1.3
3.5




The Charisma Factor.   Obama regained the charisma factor lead on the basis of two polls that more conformed with the long-term polls than the blip we saw two weeks ago.  Obama is now “out-netting” Romney by 5.5 points, and his own favorability is at 50% while Romney’s remains stuck at 43%.


Fav
Unfav
Net
Obama
50.0
46.0
4.0
Romney
43.0
44.5
-1.5
Net


5.5



Latest Polling.  A new Pew Research poll had Obama +10, the first to break double digits in quite a while.  Pew polls tend to favor Obama in the same way Rasmussen tends to favor Romney.  But on the strength of the average of four new polls this week, Obama is up on average by 3.5 points and is up to 48%.


Nat'l Polls
Obama
48.0%
Romney
44.5%



Swing States.   I looked at all the state’s again and made one change in the swing states, swapping out Missouri (putting it in the “Solid Romney” column) and bringing in New Hamsphire which had been leaning Obama.  While this makes Romney’s solid base a bit larger and closer to Obama’s (180 versus 201), the overall swing state math is compelling for Obama; on average he is up 2.6 points, including 7 states that he leads by 4+ points.  These states include the biggies, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida.  Romney has been unable to make any progress in those critical states (and others), and he must in order to win.

5 Aug
Electoral
         Polling
 Since
 July 15

Votes
Obama
Romney
Obama +/-
Pennsylvania
20
50.0
43.0
7.0
Michigan
16
48.3
42.0
6.3
Ohio
18
48.3
43.0
5.3
Wisconsin
10
49.0
44.0
5.0
Nevada
6
49.7
44.7
5.0
Iowa
6
48.0
43.0
5.0
Florida
29
49.0
45.0
4.0
New Hampshire
4
47.3
44.3
3.0
Virginia
13
46.8
44.0
2.8
Colorado
9
45.0
44.0
1.0
North Carolina
15
46.0
49.0
-3.0
Arizona
11
41.0
54.0
-13.0

157


2.6




Electoral College Projection.   Thus Obama’s electoral college projection lead remains strong.  Romney has to pick up 89 swing state electoral college votes, and at this point he only has 26, and even North Carolina keeps swinging back and forth.


Solid
Swing
Total
Obama
201
131
332
Romney
180
26
206



Popular Vote Projection.  Obama’s projected popular vote lead remains up by 2.7 percentage points..


Vote
%
Obama
 65,755,244
50.6%
Romney
 62,208,567
47.9%
Other
   1,988,683
1.5%



As always, comments welcome! 


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