Swing State Pres

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Dashboard Update...Obama Extends the Lead (August 12, 2012)

An abundance of new national polls all show the same trend:  Obama’s lead is expanding.  And a look at the Dashboard makes it clear why….the Obameter is quite strong and the Charisma Factor is deep blue.  Most importantly, Obama is maintaining his solid edge in most swing states, giving him an enviable electoral map.

BUT…it’s still early.  Lots can change.  Remember all the amazing things that happened during/after the conventions in 2008!

The Obameter.  The Obameter held steady at +10.6.  The stock market had another good week, but that was offset by a modest up tick in Romney’s favorability ratings.  Essentially, the macro environment, while not wonderful, is more favorable for Obama than it was in January, and thus it is actually not helping Romney.

Obameter
Baseline




1-Jan
30-Jul
3-Aug
10-Aug
Unemployment Rate
8.7
8.2
8.3
8.3
Consumer Confidence
65.0
62.0
65.9
65.9
Price of Gas ( avg. for week)
3.32
3.51
3.66
3.66
Dow-Jones (average for week)
      12,076
       12,796
       13,006
       13,167
Romney Favorability (average)
38.0
43.1
43.0
44.8
"Events"
0
5
5
5





Unemployment Rate
0.0
5
4
4
Consumer Confidence
0.0
-3
1
1
Price of Gas (avg. for week)
0.0
-2
-3
-3
Dow-Jones (average for week)
0.0
7
9
11
Romney Favorability (average)
0.0
-5
-5
-7
"Events"
0.0
5
5
5





OBAMETER
0.0
7.2
10.8
10.6
Obama versus Romney
1.1
1.3
3.5
4.7

The Charisma Factor.   Obama continues to be viewed far more favorably than Romney, with over 50% favorability in the latest polls and a net of +8, while Romney cannot sustain a net positive.  In a close election, when it comes down to how the undecideds “feel” as they step in the voting booth, this likeability stuff – that net +9.8 pt lead in the Charisma Factor – really matters.


Fav
Unfav
Net
Obama
52.3
44.3
8.0
Romney
44.8
46.6
-1.8
Net


9.8



Latest Polling.  Following the Pew poll Obama +10 last week came four other new polls that echoed that outcome…one by Fox News (Obama +9) and CNN/ORC, Reuters/IPSOS and IBD/CSM/TIPP all at +7.  The Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking continued to show a more even race, so the average is a strong +4.4 point lead for Obama, his widest in a very long time.


Nat'l Polls
Obama
47.7%
Romney
43.0%


Swing States.   There were not too many new swing state polls this week, and little material change, with the exception of Iowa which swung Romney’s way in a new poll (by 2 points).  Thus Obama maintains 3-point plus leads in 8 swing states, a commanding position.


12-Aug
Electoral
         Polling
 Since
July 15 

Votes
Obama
Romney
Obama +/-
Pennsylvania
20
50.0
43.0
7.0
Ohio
18
48.3
43.0
5.3
Nevada
6
49.7
44.7
5.0
Wisconsin
10
50.0
45.3
4.7
Florida
29
49.0
45.0
4.0
New Hampshire
4
49.0
45.0
4.0
Michigan
16
46.7
43.0
3.7
Virginia
13
48.5
45.5
3.0
Colorado
9
47.0
46.7
0.3
North Carolina
15
46.5
47.5
-1.0
Iowa
6
44.0
46.0
-2.0
Arizona
11
41.0
52.0
-11.0

157


2.4

Electoral College Projection.   Thus Obama’s strong swing state lead, added to his solid states, puts him comfortably ahead in the overall electoral vote projection, and well over the 270 required to win.


Solid
Swing
Total
Obama
201
125
326
Romney
180
32
212

Popular Vote Projection.  Obama’s projected popular vote lead is now at 3.2 percentage points, and I continue to forecast him receiving over 50% of the vote.


Vote
%
Obama
 66,055,421
50.8%
Romney
 61,917,628
47.6%
Other
   1,988,683
1.5%


 As always, comments welcome! 


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