Swing State Pres

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Daily Dash...No Late Shift To Romney (November 4, 2012)

Not much change from yesterday despite a number of new polls.  Everything still lines up for Obama.  He edged up in the national polls from a 0.5 to 0.8 point lead.  This is the average of 13 polls within the last several days.  Obama leads in 7 of them, is tied in 5 (including the Republican leaning Rasmussen) and is losing only one, the Gallup poll, which suspended it’s daily tracking 6 days ago and therefore is the most dated poll of the 13.

Even the Charisma Factor moved toward Obama, with two new polls bringing the margin to within a point, though still favoring Romney.  The Obameter, at +5.4, would suggest about a 2-point win for Obama.

Daily Dash 11/4
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
Obama
0.8
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
5.4
Charisma Factor
 Romney
-0.4
Senate
Dems
53-47
House
Repubs
240-195

The states varied only minutely from yesterday.  Obama still leads in 7 of the 8 swing states, and barely trails Romney in Florida. 

A new Senate poll in Montana, the first in weeks, showed, as I suspected, Republican Rehberg 4 points ahead of incumbent Democrat Tester.  So that swings Montana back into the Republican column and we’re at 53-47 again for the Senate.

Back tomorrow with my final predictions!

DAILY DASH

10/29
10/30
10/31
11/1
11/2
11/3
11/4









National Polls
Obama
47.7
47.49
47.4
47.6
47.7
47.6
48.2

Romney
47.5
47.48
47.5
47.2
47.0
47.1
47.4

Difference
0.3
0.01
-0.1
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.8









Obameter

2.6
4.7
4.6
8.0
5.7
5.7
5.4









Charisma Factor

-3.8
-3.0
-3.0
-1.8
-1.8
-1.8
-0.4









Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.9
3.0
Nevada
6
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
Wisconsin
10
3.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
4.6
4.6
4.2
Iowa
6
3.0
3.0
4.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
Colorado
9
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Virginia
13
1.3
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.1
2.4
2.3
New Hampshire
4
0.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
3.3
2.8
2.3
Florida
29
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6









Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
66
66
66
66
66
66
66

Obama
303
303
303
303
303
303
303










Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
29
29
29
29
29
29
29

Romney
235
235
235
235
235
235
235









Senate
Democrat
52
53
53
53
53
54
53
Projection
Republican
48
47
47
47
47
46
47









Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
Ohio
Brown-Martel
4
6
6
6
6
5
6
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
6
6
6
6
6
8
8
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
4
6
6
6
8
5
6
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
2
2
2
1
3
1
2
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
2
1
1
3
3
2
2
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
1
-2
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-5
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5
-5
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
0
4
4
4
7
7
7









House
Democrat
200
200
195
195
195
195
195
Projection
Republican
235
235
240
240
240
240
240


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