Swing State Pres

Friday, November 2, 2012

Daily Dash....Obama's Swing State Leads Widen (November 2, 2012)

There were many new swing state polls reported today and Obama did quite well.  You can see below that his lead expanded a bit in Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin, the three states that I’ve said have been “firming up” for him, and the only three he needs to get to the magic 270.  His lead also grew in New Hampshire, held in Colorado and Virginia, and Romney’s Florida lead has shrunk to a dead heat.  Things seem to be breaking Obama’s way at the right time, and with the jobs report behind him, mixed bag that it was, it is hard to see anything Romney can do to re-shift the momentum back to him.

DAILY DASH

10/27
10/28
10/29
10/30
10/31
11/1
11/2
Swing States
ElectoralVotes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
Nevada
6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.0
3.3
Wisconsin
10
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
4.6
Iowa
6
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.5
2.5
2.5
Colorado
9
0.8
2.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
Virginia
13
1.0
1.3
1.3
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.1
New Hampshire
4
2.0
0.3
0.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
3.3
Florida
29
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.1


Obama now leads the national polls by 0.6 points, and the other measures are about as they were, heading into the final weekend.  By this count, he will crack through the 300 mark in electoral votes, and, if his Modest Mo continues, he may even pick up Florida.  Oddest decision I’ve heard?  Romney is campaigning in Pennsylvania, which is about a +5 for Obama, a wider margin than any of these swing states.

Daily Dash 11/2
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
 Obama
0.6
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
5.7
Charisma Factor
 Romney
-1.8
Senate
Dems
53-47
House
Repubs
240-195



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