Daily Dash...Some Tweeks Here and There (November 3, 2012)

The new day brought several fresh polls, but did not change my overall narrative – Obama is looking good.   The new polls did yield some interesting tidbits, however.  Obama modestly expanded his lead in Ohio and Virginia, while a new poll gave Romney just a bit of breathing room in Florida, though the Sunshine State remains the tightest swing state battle.

Daily Dash 11/3	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Obama	0.5
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	5.7
Charisma Factor	Romney	-1.8
Senate	Dems	54-46
House	Repubs	240-195

Obama remains half-a-point ahead in the national polls and, more importantly, holds a narrow lead in 7 of the 8 swing states, thus projecting, if those leads hold, to over 300 electoral votes – and victory.

In addition, on the Senate side, a new poll in Montana – the first in weeks – showed the Democratic incumbent Tester just ahead of Republican challenger Rehberg, 49-48, a virtual tie considering the MOE, of course, but it had been a deadheat.  Significantly, this was a Rasmussen poll, which usually have a Republican bias of a couple of points.  I’m not sure I believe Tester will win, or will predict it, but as it is, the data points now to a 54-46 majority for the Democrats in the Senate.

DAILY DASH		10/28	10/29	10/30	10/31	11/1	11/2	11/3
National Polls	Obama	47.7	47.7	47.49	47.4	47.6	47.7	47.6
	Romney	47.2	47.5	47.48	47.5	47.2	47.0	47.1
	Difference	0.5	0.3	0.01	-0.1	0.5	0.6	0.5
Obameter		3.6	2.6	4.7	4.6	8.0	5.7	5.7
Charisma Factor		-3.7	-3.8	-3.0	-3.0	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.4	2.9
Nevada	6	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.7	2.0	3.3	3.3
Wisconsin	10	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	4.0	4.6	4.6
Iowa	6	3.0	3.0	3.0	4.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Colorado	9	2.0	2.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0
Virginia	13	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.1	2.4
New Hampshire	4	0.3	0.3	2.5	2.5	2.3	3.3	2.8
Florida	29	-1.2	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6	-0.8	-0.1	-0.5
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237	237	237	237	237
Projection	Swing Obama	66	66	66	66	66	66	66
	Obama	303	303	303	303	303	303	303
	Solid Romney	206	206	206	206	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
	Romney	235	235	235	235	235	235	235
Senate	Democrat	52	52	53	53	53	53	54
Projection	Republican	48	48	47	47	47	47	46
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	4	4	4	4	3	3	3
Ohio	Brown-Martel	3	4	6	6	6	6	5
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	4	6	6	6	6	6	8
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	5	4	6	6	6	8	5
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	2	2	2	2	1	3	1
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	2	2	1	1	3	3	2
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	6	4	4	4	4	4	4
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-5	-5	-4	-4	-4	-4	-4
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-3	-3	-4	-4	-5	-5	-5
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	0	0	4	4	4	7	7
House	Democrat	200	200	200	195	195	195	195
Projection	Republican	235	235	235	240	240	240	240