Swing State Pres

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Daily Dash...Some Tweeks Here and There (November 3, 2012)

The new day brought several fresh polls, but did not change my overall narrative – Obama is looking good.   The new polls did yield some interesting tidbits, however.  Obama modestly expanded his lead in Ohio and Virginia, while a new poll gave Romney just a bit of breathing room in Florida, though the Sunshine State remains the tightest swing state battle.

Daily Dash 11/3
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
Obama
0.5
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
5.7
Charisma Factor
 Romney
-1.8
Senate
Dems
54-46
House
Repubs
240-195

Obama remains half-a-point ahead in the national polls and, more importantly, holds a narrow lead in 7 of the 8 swing states, thus projecting, if those leads hold, to over 300 electoral votes – and victory.

In addition, on the Senate side, a new poll in Montana – the first in weeks – showed the Democratic incumbent Tester just ahead of Republican challenger Rehberg, 49-48, a virtual tie considering the MOE, of course, but it had been a deadheat.  Significantly, this was a Rasmussen poll, which usually have a Republican bias of a couple of points.  I’m not sure I believe Tester will win, or will predict it, but as it is, the data points now to a 54-46 majority for the Democrats in the Senate.










DAILY DASH

10/28
10/29
10/30
10/31
11/1
11/2
11/3









National Polls
Obama
47.7
47.7
47.49
47.4
47.6
47.7
47.6

Romney
47.2
47.5
47.48
47.5
47.2
47.0
47.1

Difference
0.5
0.3
0.01
-0.1
0.5
0.6
0.5









Obameter

3.6
2.6
4.7
4.6
8.0
5.7
5.7









Charisma Factor

-3.7
-3.8
-3.0
-3.0
-1.8
-1.8
-1.8









Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.9
Nevada
6
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.0
3.3
3.3
Wisconsin
10
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
4.6
4.6
Iowa
6
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Colorado
9
2.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
Virginia
13
1.3
1.3
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.1
2.4
New Hampshire
4
0.3
0.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
3.3
2.8
Florida
29
-1.2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.1
-0.5









Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
66
66
66
66
66
66
66

Obama
303
303
303
303
303
303
303










Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
29
29
29
29
29
29
29

Romney
235
235
235
235
235
235
235









Senate
Democrat
52
52
53
53
53
53
54
Projection
Republican
48
48
47
47
47
47
46









Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
Ohio
Brown-Martel
3
4
6
6
6
6
5
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
4
6
6
6
6
6
8
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
5
4
6
6
6
8
5
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
2
2
2
2
1
3
1
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
2
2
1
1
3
3
2
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-5
-5
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-5
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
0
0
4
4
4
7
7









House
Democrat
200
200
200
195
195
195
195
Projection
Republican
235
235
235
240
240
240
240


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