Swing State Pres

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Song Parody...Four AM in Ohio (November 6, 2012)

I give you one last pre-election post….a combined brief Daily Dash with a song parody.  There were, indeed, a slew of new national and swing state polls yesterday, but nothing to shake my predictions. Obama’s national lead grew from 0.8 to 1.1 points.  On the other hand, the GOP will leap all over a slight tightening of swing state polls in Wisconsin, Iowa and Virginia, chalking it up to “Republican Enthusiasm,” that mystical force that appears to magically overcome both the cold, hard facts of the polls as well as the awe-inspiring Obama ground game.

Daily Dash 11/5
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
Obama
1.1
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
5.4
Charisma Factor
 Romney
-0.6
Senate
Dems
53-47
House
Repubs
241-194











But Obama still has the lead in 7 out of the 8 swing states, and the Big Three for him – Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada – remain steady at 3-point-plus leads.  In those three states, I count 26 polls in the last 10 days or so, and Obama was ahead in 21 of them with 4 ties.  Romney won exactly 1 of those 26 polls.  And, again, those three states have 34 electoral votes, and when you add these to Obama’s “solid” base of 237, that gives him 271 – enough to win.  (Plus he’s ahead in Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado.)

So…on to Election Night!  It was inevitable, I think, that this particular song parody would be my final one…of course it is based on Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young’s classic “Ohio.”  I call this one….”Four AM in Ohio”….

Obama or Romney coming
We’re finally gonna know
Get set for some late night summing
Four AM in Ohio

Gotta countdown to it
Phone banks are tracking us down
Sick of it long long ago
What if we watch it and
It’s a dead heat all around?
Time for the Jim Baker show?

Gotta countdown to it
Swing states will finally ground
Lawyers line up, recounts grow
What if Wolf calls it and
Then they switch it around?
How can you sleep if you don’t know?

Obama or Romney coming
We’re finally gonna know
Get set for some late night summing
Four AM in Ohio
Four AM in Ohio
Four AM in Ohio
(How many more?)
Four AM in Ohio
(Five?)
Four AM in Ohio
(Six?)
Four AM in Ohio
(Chadds?)
Four AM in Ohio
(The Courts?)
Four AM in Ohio

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