The
Republican Congressional campaigns this November are being run on two basic
themes: 1) Obamacare is a disaster and
emblematic of a Federal government that is out of control, both economically
and in encroaching on the “rights” of private citizens, and 2) Obama’s economic
policies are failing and we are stuck in a rut accordingly. (The GOP knows that Benghazi
and Ukraine
Both tenets
have had currency in the marketplace, and if the election had been timed for
November, 2013 instead of November, 2014, it is highly likely the mid-terms
would have been the rout many still expect.
But the
last month has been sobering for the Republicans. Obamacare soared past 8 million in enrollment,
well exceeding the 7 million goal, and payment data, trickling out from private
insurers, is validating premium payment rates in the 85-90% range. And last month’s unemployment report showed a
robust 288,000 new job figure and the unemployment rate dropping to 6.3%. All of a sudden, the scenario I put forth
last month looks ever more likely; you will recall my conceptual “formula” to
guarantee that Democrats hold the Senate and not lose many, if any, House
seats:
□ Meet goal of 7 million sign-ups for
Obamacare
□ Unemployment rate drops below 6%
□ Obama approval rating at 50% or
above
The first
box has been checked, the second box is suddenly far more likely, though not a
laydown (we’ve seen the economic promise of spring turn into summer stalls
before). Will the third follow? Not as yet (as we’ll see below), but possibly
in time.
On the
Republican presidential side, the buzz around Jeb Bush has ramped up in the
wake of the Chris Christie implosion.
The “will he or won’t he” dance is in full flower, as well as press
pieces finding the skeletons in his closet (big-time consulting to Lehman
Brothers, for goodness sake). The sudden
potential for yet another Bush-Clinton brawl is setting off the predictable
frenzy. (And for you generational
dynasty fans, there is already talk of Chelsea
One thing
for sure…this is not a great time to be a Tea Party devotee. The Cliven Bundy spectacle was the latest
debacle, as FOX News’s Glenn Beck gave Bundy the biggest embrace one can
imagine in his standoff over land-use rights with the Federal Government, only
to recoil in the face of his Donald Stirling-esque pronouncements on race (“Let
me tell you about the Negro…”). Not a
good scene for those on the far right.
Meanwhile,
for the Democrats, status quo reigns when it comes to 2016. Hillary remains a 66/12 preference over Joe
Biden. Chelsea Benghazi
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
The good
news on healthcare and the economy has yet to translate into political gain for
Obama, as his approval rating remains solidly in the 44-45% range and the net is
sticking at about -7 points. But I would
bet a month from now we will see a modest uptick. And that’s all the Dems may need for Obama to
become the rising tide that carries the boats upward in tight Congressional
races.
|
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
11-Feb
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
43.8
|
44.6
|
44.2
|
44.5
|
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
51.4
|
51.7
|
51.9
|
51.4
|
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-7.6
|
-7.0
|
-7.7
|
-6.9
|
OBAMACARE RATINGS
As
predicted, Obamacare ratings continue to improve. Opposition to the law is abating, down to
about 50% (from a high of 57%) and the net negative is now in single digits,
having dropped from -18 points in early December in the wake of the website fiasco,
to about -9 currently. Nothing is
scarier to Republicans than the thought that this net negative could close by
Election Day. Continued payment data,
and, over the summer, the announcement of premium increases for next year, are
the next important milestones. But one
interesting indicator…for the first time, a prominent Republican Congressperson
(Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington
|
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
11-Feb
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
39.0
|
40.0
|
39.8
|
41.7
|
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
52.1
|
55.2
|
52.0
|
50.2
|
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-13.1
|
-15.2
|
-12.2
|
-8.5
|
ECONOMETER
The
Econometer held in the low 50’s, as the good news on unemployment was offset by
rising gas prices and an anemic (and weather driven) 1st quarter GDP
growth rate of 0.1%. This underscores
that the economic story is not completely rosy, nor is the unemployment figure
the only data point. Personal income has
remained flat, and thus economic improvement has not really penetrated to Main Street
|
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
11-Feb
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
50.6
|
48.1
|
53.3
|
52.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
6.6
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
6.3
|
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
80.7
|
78.6
|
83.9
|
82.3
|
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.38
|
3.48
|
3.62
|
3.74
|
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
15,993
|
16,208
|
16,339
|
16,339
|
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
3.2
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
0.1
|
CONGRESSIONAL GENERIC BALLOT
The
Democrats continue to retain a slim lead in the generic ballot, under a
point. That is way too close for
comfort.
|
Generic
Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
11-Feb
|
10-Mar
|
6-Apr
|
4-May
|
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
39.9
|
41.0
|
41.0
|
43.0
|
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
40.7
|
39.2
|
39.4
|
42.5
|
|
Net
|
0.3
|
-0.8
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE
March/April
polling gives evidence of the Christie demise.
The other candidates are all hanging within close range, none making a
move. Paul Ryan seems to be fading, as
he plays his own Hamlet maneuver, raising skepticism that he will actually take
the plunge. The Republican leadership is
surely unhappy to see Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul at the top of the polls. Is it possible that only Jeb Bush is really
“electable” among this group? Yes, it
is…the plight of the GOP in bold-faced type.
The only viable nominee shares the same last name as both our last
one-term President (41) and one of the most reviled Presidents of all time (43).
|
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014
|
2014
|
|
|
Jan-Oct
|
Nov/Dec
|
1/1 - 2/11
|
Mar/Aprl
|
|
Paul
|
13
|
14
|
11
|
14
|
|
Huckabee
|
13
|
13
|
15
|
14
|
|
Bush
|
12
|
10
|
12
|
12
|
|
Christie
|
16
|
19
|
13
|
11
|
|
Ryan
|
14
|
11
|
12
|
10
|
|
Cruz
|
10
|
12
|
8
|
7
|
|
Rubio
|
14
|
9
|
8
|
6
|
|
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
Perry
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
5
|
|
Jindal
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
In case you
missed it, our President did a fabulous job at the White House Correspondents
Dinner, check it out: https://movies.yahoo.com/news/president-obama-correspondents-dinner-digs-fox-news-cnn-031434519.html
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