Swing State Pres

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Final Days....A Quick Look at the Senate Before Final Predictions on Monday NIght

There are no changes in the Senate races since my last update on October 28th, despite many new polls.  The GOP clings to a 51-49 lead, and seven of the ten “battleground races” remain “toss ups,” that is, with the frontrunner’s leads within the margin of error.  To maintain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to win the four races in which they currently have a very tenuous lead – New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska and Kansas (assuming Independent Greg Orman, who leads, caucuses with them) -- plus one more.

Where might that winning race come from?  The best hope is Iowa, where Bruce Braley is finally making a modest move on Joni Ernst, and is now behind by just one point on average.  Georgia is just as close, but Michelle Nunn would have to win not only on Election Day, but, assuming she did not achieve the 50% mark in doing so, a runoff in January as well, which would be very difficult.  Finally, Mark Udall still has a shot in Colorado, especially if Hispanics have been underrepresented in the polling to date, as they were in 2010 and 2012.

But as of now…nothing has flipped in the last half-week.  Summary tables are below, including a race-by-race look at the ten battleground states.

Democrats Total
49
Dem Not Up
34
Dem Solid
11
Dem Lean
0
Dem Toss-up
4
Rep Toss-up
3
Rep Lean
3
Rep Solid
15
Rep Not Up
30
Republicans Total
51


                SENATE BATTLEGROUND STATES



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Vs. Last
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Update
New Hamp.
D
Shaheen
Brown
D + 3
D Toss-up
n/c
N. Carolina
D
Hagan
Tillis
D + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Alaska
D
Begich
Sullivan
D + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Kansas
R
Orman (I)
Roberts
I + 1
I Toss-up
n/c
Georgia
R
Nunn
Perdue
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Iowa
D
Braley
Ernst
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Udall
Gardner
R + 3
R  Toss-up
n/c
Kentucky
R
Grimes
McConnell
R + 5
R Lean
n/c
Arkansas
D
Pryor
Cotton
R + 6
R Lean
n/c
Louisiana
D
Landrieu
Cassidy
R + 6
R Lean
n/c


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