With the Iowa caucus a mere ten and a half months away (mark
your calendars, January 18, 2016) and announcement season just ahead, we take
our first look at the GOP field in the race for the Presidency. It is a huge field and at this juncture, no
candidate has formally announced, and only two – as it happens, the two who
headed the ticket in 2012, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan – have declared themselves
“out.”
Their departure has narrowed the field to 21 contenders. Perhaps you know of more -- feel free to let
me know. (And no, I am counting neither
Donald Trump nor Sarah Palin.) The only
way to handle such a field is to lump them into categories and go from
there. And then, fasten your seats belts
as we follow the candidates throughout 2015 and early 2016, as they lurch from
far right to right and back again, until one lucky one takes the crown and
pulls out the Etch-a-Sketch (to recall an unforgettable and all-too-true 2012
image created by Romney aide Erick Fehrnstrom) and tacks abruptly to the middle
for the general election.
Under each grouping I will give a thumbnail assessment of
each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses as a contender, as well as a completely
unscientific view of the odds of their becoming the GOP 2016 nominee.
Announcements will be coming soon enough; I would imagine
they would all be in by June. And
certainly some of those listed below will opt out, having assessed dismal results
in the “silent primary” now underway.
For readers who cannot wait to see where the polls currently
stand (national, Iowa, and national all contenders versus Hillary Clinton),
scroll on down to the bottom.
THE ESTABLISHMENT
There are really only two members of the field that the
traditional GOP money wants to see win; they are the only GOP candidates with
moderate enough stances to stand a chance in the general election. And in reality, most establishment GOP types would
be very happy to crown the first name as soon as possible and forget the
second.
·
Jeb Bush (40%).
Bush is, of course, the former Governor of Florida and member of the
GOP’s leading dynastic family. Bush has
much going for him, starting with huge name recognition, an established
fundraising network (built on the strength of 41’s massive Christmas card
list), policy chops, a decent governing record in Florida and a Hispanic wife
who could help the GOP reach that crucial demographic that it otherwise insults
almost every day. But his weaknesses are
readily apparent. His relatively
moderate stances on immigration and education are anathema to the hard right
that controls the primary process. His
name alone will hurt him, from both a “Bush fatigue” standpoint as well as
guilt-by-association with his brother.
He is an indifferent backslapper, a notoriously dull speaker, and
appears to lack that fire-in-the-belly quality so necessary to sustain a
600-day campaign. He has not yet been to
Iowa, his business record has Romney-like issues but without the fabulous
personal wealth, he hasn’t held office in 8 years, hasn’t run for office in 12,
and his wife hates politics. Shall I go
on?
·
Chris Christie (5%). We have not even started yet and already
Chris Christie is the silent primary’s first major casualty. It is too early to write him off, but the
Governor of New Jersey has already had more swings than Jack Nicklaus in his
remarkable career. A brief encapsulation
of the major ups and downs is instructive, and all of it has happened since Jeb
Bush last held office. He came out of
nowhere to beat John Corzine to become Governor of New Jersey in 2010, smacked
down (sort of) the teacher’s union to become a darling of the right; perhaps
missed his moment by declining to run in 2012; blew a chance at Obama-like fame
by spending most of his keynote speaker’s spot by talking about himself rather
than Romney, failing to mention the nominee’s name until Minute 16; further
alienated his party by his utter embrace of Obama on the eve of the 2012
election in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy; got clobbered by BridgeGate and
the ensuing deep dive into his Nixon-esque manner of running his state; clawed
back as head of the Governor’s Association to score big points in the 2014
landslide; only to backslide again in his early days of the “silent primary,”
that is, right now, as he fails to impress the hard right -- right when he
needs to the most. Whew!
THE HOLDOVERS
They got their feet wet, and in some cases, their faces
reddened, in the 2008 and 2012 campaigns, and are back for more.
·
Mike Huckabee (5%). Many people think that Mitt Romney was “next
in line” after the 2008 campaign (which was won by John McCain) but in truth
Mike Huckabee won the second most delegates.
He sat out 2012, content to rake in the fees on the circuit and a cushy
stint on Fox, but he surprised many by resigning the latter and making noise
about 2016. Huckabee has a folksy way
about him that makes him appear to be less threatening than the other true
right-wingers in the field (that is, virtually everyone else in the field
except Bush, Christie and perhaps Lindsey Graham, unless you count George
Pataki.) He could do well in Iowa, but
does not have a fundraising network at all, and feels a bit like old news amid
the vast array of newcomers he is fighting on the right.
·
Rick Santorum (0%). Santorum, the former Senator from
Pennsylvania, actually is the “next in line” from 2012, having been the last
person standing to challenge Mitt Romney among the embarrassing set of far
right candidates with whom Mitt jousted that year. He followed Michelle Bachmann, Donald Trump,
Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich to the top of the polls just in time for Iowa,
where he squeaked out an 8-vote win. He
parlayed that into just enough strength to hang around to win the second most
delegates (hence “next in line’). But if
he could not win in 2012, he has zero chance in 2016, when he faces much more
capable competition in his hard-right wheelhouse.
·
Rick Perry (8%). Perry has just finished his long run as the
Governor of Texas (how long? He
succeeded W in 2001), and has forgotten enough about 2012 that he considers
himself viable. But forgetting is his
specialty, right? Who can forget his
brain-lock on the Department of Commerce in 2011? No one.
But…believe it or not, he may have a chance to duke it out with Jeb
Bush. He is telegenic, he’s hardcore
right wing (despite one “oops” on immigration, his tuition policy for
undocumented students), he’s still a “good lookin’ rascal” (as Bill Clinton
famously gushed) and money will be no problem.
And everyone loves a comeback story, right?
NATIONAL NAMES, FIRST TIME OUT
Here is where it gets interesting. Can any of these new faces (sort of) get
themselves to the top of the heap? All
are national figures, relatively young, strong on policy, reasonably articulate
– and crazy right wingers. The Democrats
dream of one of them shoving Jeb Bush aside.

·
Rand Paul (8%).
No one has tougher needles to thread than the Kentucky Senator and son
of the leading libertarian of his time, Ron Paul. Rand Paul has to convince the hard right that
he is tough as nails on defense (and not an isolationist like his father), and
that he is one of them despite modest overtures to Hispanics. The early returns are not encouraging – he
failed to impress the big hard right money in a recent confab, and the blue
jeans did not help. He has process
issues to wade through as well – under Kentucky law he cannot run for both
Senator (he is up for re-election in 2016) and President. He will attack this restriction, perhaps
suing his own state, or trying to get it to turn the presidential contest into
a caucus. But if he manages to scrape
through it all, he could do well in both Iowa as well as famously libertarian
New Hampshire, and thus emerge from the two as a top tier contender. (He’s another candidate without a college
degree, though he did manage to get a medical degree from Duke.)
·
Marco Rubio (8%). The Senator from Florida has a bit of
‘splaining to do over his immigration policies – he led Senate passage of
reform legislation that the House failed to even consider, a huge black mark to
the far right. And he also would have
trouble taking his own state against fellow Floridian Jeb Bush. On the other hand, he has much going for him,
as telegenic as Rick Perry and a policy wonk worthy of Bush himself.
·
Ted Cruz (5%).
The Senator from Texas is the biggest personality in the room, and I
would love to see a Bush-Cruz one-on-one debate. He is unabashedly hard right and has carved
out a leadership position among the shutdown crazies who see him as the
One. Cruz is hardly cuddly but he can
sure fire up a crowd, and one could easily see him making the victory speech in
Iowa.
·
Bobby Jindal (0%). The Governor of Louisiana has never rebounded
from his disastrous State of the Union Republican response in 2009, widely
derided by members of both parties, He’s
still only 44 but feels like a has-been (or a never-was) and it is hard to
imagine him beating this field.
LONGSHOTS
This set of standing Governors have little name recognition
and might use a run this time to get some impetus for a 2020 run.
·
John Kasich of Ohio tried once, forming an
exploratory committee in 1999. The
silent primary went so poorly that he dropped out before the Iowa Straw Poll –
not the caucus, the Straw Poll.
·
Rick Snyder of Michigan is a businessman who
was briefly considered to be Mitt Romney’s running mate. You would have to ask why, since his resume,
full of CEO-ships and venture capital stints, would not seem to complement
Romney’s own resume.
·
Mike Pence of Indiana is kind of a poor man’s
Mitch Daniels, a predecessor of his as Governor. Daniels built a strong track record as
Governor, leaving Pence little room to maneuver within the traditional GOP ouevre
of tax cuts and economic stimulus.
Daniels chose not to run for President despite his credentials because
of a messy family circumstance (in a nutshell, he has married the same woman
twice).
·
Rick Scott of Florida, another businessman, has
had a tumultuous run, rejecting federal funds for high-speed rail, forcing
welfare recipients to undergo drug testing and, most recently, refusing to take
the stage for seven long minutes in a debate with challenger Charlie Crist in
his re-election campaign because Crist had a small fan in his podium to prevent
sweating. He was ridiculed, but managed
to beat Crist nonetheless.
CURIOUSITIES
That is a kind heading.
Suffice to say, none of these people will ever be President of the
United States.

·
Carly Fiorina is the former CEO of
Hewlett-Packard and and the GOP nominee for the Senate in California in 2010. Neither worked out well. She was fired from H-P and lost the Senate
race to incumbent Barbara Boxer 52% to 42%.
·
Representative Peter King from New York
achieved some modest level of notoriety when he chaired the House Committee on
Homeland Security.
·
Former Governor George Pataki of New York has
been out of office even longer than Jeb Bush.
There was a time when I might have taken a Pataki candidacy seriously,
but, unlike Bush, he has not spent his intervening years in any high profile
manner, nor does he have a brother or father who was once President.
·
Former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton was a
controversy a minute in his brief stint at the U.N. under George W. Bush,
beginning with his recess appointment in 2005 (he resigned a year later). A classic neocon in the Wolfowitz school of
diplomacy (ask for neither permission nor forgiveness), he has no chance
whatsoever of gaining any traction against this field.
·
Former Governor Bob Erlach of Maryland barely
makes even this list. Another little
known ex-Governor who last served in 2007.
·
Former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia also
barely makes the list. He last served in
the last century…not really, but in 2002.
The polls continue to show a tight race, though Scott
Walker is enjoying his early boomlet and Chris Christie continues to drop like
a stone. Walker’s national lead over
Bush is, not surprisingly, accentuated in Iowa.
None of the GOP field approaches Hillary Clinton head-to-head at this
juncture; what is surprising about this chart is that neither Jeb Bush nor
Chris Christie do any better than their more conservative rivals. The normal pattern is for the more moderate
candidates to do better in head-to-head polls with the Dems. This result should be disconcerting for Bush.
NATIONAL
|
Dec
'14
|
Jan
'15
|
Feb
'15
|
IOWA
|
Feb
'15
|
NATIONAL
|
GOP
|
Clinton
|
Diff
|
||
Walker
|
5
|
8
|
18
|
Walker
|
21
|
Paul
|
40
|
47
|
-7
|
||
Bush
|
14
|
13
|
16
|
Bush
|
12
|
Rubio
|
41
|
48
|
-7
|
||
Huckabee
|
7
|
9
|
12
|
Huckabee
|
12
|
Perry
|
41
|
48
|
-7
|
||
Carson
|
7
|
10
|
10
|
Paul
|
10
|
Walker
|
40
|
48
|
-8
|
||
Paul
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
Christie
|
7
|
Carson
|
40
|
48
|
-8
|
||
Christie
|
9
|
5
|
6
|
Carson
|
7
|
Christie
|
40
|
48
|
-8
|
||
Rubio
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
Rubio
|
6
|
Huckabee
|
41
|
50
|
-9
|
||
Cruz
|
5
|
7
|
4
|
Santorum
|
5
|
Bush
|
40
|
50
|
-10
|
||
Perry
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
Cruz
|
4
|
Cruz
|
40
|
50
|
-10
|
||
Santorum
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
Perry
|
4
|
||||||
Jindal
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Jindal
|
2
|
||||||
Graham
|
|
|
2
|
||||||||
Kasich
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
||||||||
Fiorina
|
1
|
|
1
|
||||||||
Ryan
|
6
|
3
|
|
||||||||
Romney
|
20
|
25
|
|
||||||||
All other/DK
|
6
|
3
|
8
|
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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