That last night’s Republican debate was staged in Las Vegas
draped an appropriate metaphor over the proceedings, as the candidates each
seemed to have made a strategic bet about how to play his or her hand. While
there were no seismic eruptions that will fundamentally reshape the campaign,
what happened in Vegas is not going to stay in Vegas, and there will be lasting
consequences for the race. Ben Carson is fading into irrelevance, and Jeb Bush
and Chris Christie may have staved off extinction. But the core narrative
centers on the odd mating dance between Trump and Cruz, who sought to make the
evening into a tea party, just for two.
So Cruz – who memorized
the constitution in high school – was unwilling to condemn Trump’s recent torpedo
to the first amendment proposing that Muslims who are not citizens be barred
from entering the United States. When challenged to repeat in public the
questions about Trump’s judgment that Cruz had aired in a supposedly private
meeting with donors, Cruz weaseled his response – and Wolf Blitzer chose not to
press the matter. In turn, Trump, who only days ago characterized Cruz’s
behavior in the Senate as that of a “maniac,” did a triple salchow, pirouetting (which is very different from a Romney
“flip-flop,” mind you) into the most ardent defender of Cruz’s statesmanlike
demeanor. Their agenda was clear: there’s another debate in January, and they
are both content to wait until then, find out who is really leading in Iowa,
and only then attack if falling behind.
It’s my party, cry if you want to. The other very big news from Trump was his
seemingly spontaneous, off-the-cuff promise to not run a third-party candidacy.
Now, we all know that a promise from Donald Trump is worth only the hot air
with which it is blown hard, but this is actually a very big deal. Trump’s threat of a third party candidacy absolutely
terrified the party machinery, as that was the scenario that everyone agreed
would hand the White House – if not all of Congress – to the Dems. Trump’s threat gave him amazing leverage: no
one wanted to anger him so much that he would actually bolt. Now, the PAC-MEN
of every Republican candidate can feel free to start dropping anti-Trump bombs
with less worry that they are digging their own graves.

The two squabbled and accused each other of advocating
legislation that weakened our surveillance capability, having inconsistent or
ill-considered policies for regime change, and making poor choices in their advocacy
for differing aspects of the military budget. In a campaign that has been
generally denigrated for its breathtaking scope of vacuous bombast, there was real
substance and detail in these exchanges.
Perhaps too much so: Unfortunately for these two policy
wonks, their debate got so into the weeds that it gave Chris Christie a
spectacular opportunity to stomp on them both, and the big guy landed hard.
“Are your eyes all glazing over?” he asked the audience. “This is the U.S. Senate!” He proceeded to excoriate the two
senators as “debaters,” which Christie spat out as if it was a disorder to be
treated with Viagra, before concluding that only a governor who actually had to
make tough decisions could possibly be qualified to be Commander-in-Chief.
Chris Christie had a good night. Yes, he is a blowhard; and
to hear him talk about his role as a United States Attorney for New Jersey
after 9/11, you’d think Osama Bin Laden’s true goal was to take out the Garden
State from the Outerbridge Crossing clear down to Cape May. But Christie
connects with the audience. While Trump appears to be take stances and
calculate his comments solely to elicit the most press coverage, Christie grounds
his fervent exhortations in passionate belief. The Jersey Boy’s second sterling
moment came when Rand Paul seemed incredulous that Christie declared
unequivocally that he would shoot down a Russian plane if necessary after
delineating a Syria no-fly zone. “Yes, I would,” Christie snarled, declaring
that he is “not the same feckless weakling that we have in the White House
now.” You lefties might find this an obscene characterization of the guy who
did, after all, kill Osama Bin Laden, but then again, a Fox News commentator
called Obama a “pussy” last week on national TV. Safe conclusion: In Tea Party
Town, it is simply impossible to be too
disrespectful to Barack Obama.
Rand Paul, whose antipathy for Christie is well documented
quickly turned to the audience and noted, “Well, if you are in favor of World
War III, you have your candidate… this type of judgment is incredibly
important… like shutting down a bridge because they don’t like democrats.” Poor
Rand. When your big take-down is aimed at a guy whose own campaign is in the
ICU, you are on a fast track to the kiddie table.

Later, when Trump spoke about treating the families of
terrorists as fully complicit and therefore fair targets, Jeb called it
“another example of a lack of seriousness… Trump is not a serious candidate.”
Trump’s retort was to once again question Jeb’s “energy,” and Bush crushed it.
“Donald, you’re not going to be able to insult your way to the Presidency.” A
few minutes later, Bush teased Trump for getting his information from the
weekend morning shows, though he noted that he “was not sure Trump watched on
Saturday or Sunday.” It was a Colbert-quality one-liner, deftly delivered.
My theory: Bush may have already resigned himself to the
fact that he will not be the candidate. But now – finally – he has a sense of
purpose for his candidacy. He is determined to take Donald Trump down. Trump
has been messing with the Bush legacy, and Jeb is going to make him pay for it.
And Bush staying in the race hurts Trump in many ways… the most concrete being
the simple math: More candidates means a greater chance of a brokered
convention.
Ben Carson had another night of enigmatic and puzzling
fuzzy-speak; it is getting to the point where his non-sequiturs outnumber his sequiturs.
More important: Ever since Paris and San Bernardino made testosterone the lingua franca of a fractured party,
Ben’s slow-it-down, heavy-lidded Yoda act is suddenly the wrong pace at the
wrong time.
Carly Fiorina had a defining moment last night. During a
particularly intense verbal pile-on that involved Trump, Bush, and others, the
shouting and interruption reached a level of unruliness not previously
witnessed in these debates. At that point, Fiorina hurled herself into the
fray, condemning this behavior as exactly the sort of thing the electorate is
sick of. Unfortunately, she did this by shouting even louder and interrupting
more forcefully. The irony appeared lost on her. She, like Rand Paul and John
Kasich, are beginning to appear desperate at their lack of traction.
There is one candidate who had a particularly outstanding
night, but unfortunately no one knows. Lindsey Graham’s performance in the
undercard debate was one of the most assertive, compelling, and principled
presentations we’ve seen from any candidate. He at one point apologized on behalf of the United States to
the Muslim world. He spoke passionately about his long-standing belief that
the United States must send troops to defeat ISIS. It is a pity that he will in
all likelihood never get a shot at the main stage, because he may be the one
guy who is not afraid of going up Donald Trump’s nose, and has the debating
skill to pull it off.
A quick word on CNN: Wasn’t it delightful to watch a two
hour Republican debate and not have a single instance of a candidate vilifying
a moderator as the evil elite East-coast establishment media incarnate? Give
points to Wolf Blitzer, Dana Bash, and Hugh Hewlitt. There were no painfully
overt “gotchas,” just good hardball. And CNN was much, much tougher about
cutting off the time violators (Cruz and Fiorina are consistently the most
egregious offenders) than any network thus far. Bravo.
When they cashed in the chips in Vegas last night, the
ingoing odds held. Rubio continued to perform very well, and although he took
some direct hits, he continues to solidify his position as the consensus choice
of the centrists. For the rest of the candidates, it is crunch time. We expect
Bush and Christie to score small gains at the expense of Paul, Fiorina, and
Kasich.
The biggest crisis after last night is Carson’s: If he does
not do well in Iowa, his game is over.
And give the devils their due: The Trump and Cruz “Tea
Party for Two” strategy worked. It will enable them both to float along on top
of the polls for the next month until they have their reckoning in Iowa.
Steve, as always, very cogent, insightful piece that's also fun to read. Thanks! I watch every minute of every debate yet I always gain new perspective from reading your essays. The debates are entertaining, but when you step back and look at this, it's all more than a little unnerving.
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