We are back with our projection of the GOP Nevada Caucus, which
is tomorrow, Tuesday, February 23.
Nevada represents a clear opportunity for Donald Trump to
build on his momentum coming off a solid win in South Carolina. He has led in the polls in Nevada by about 20
points (there have been only two recent polls, but they have had similar
outcomes). While the media has been
fixated on the “race for second place” between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio (and,
of course, John Kasich and Ben Carson are still in the field), that is becoming
borderline irrelevant unless someone actually beats Trump – soon.
A narrowed field might slow him down, but that seems
unlikely in the near term. Neither Cruz
nor Rubio, who tap into different sectors of the GOP (Tea Party and mainstream,
respectively), are likely to drop out soon.
Carson should drop out, and when
he does, his followers will likely shift to Cruz. Kasich, counting on big support in the
Midwest, will certainly hold out until March 8, when Michigan is up, and even
March 15, when Illinois and home-state Ohio have their primaries. If he drops out at some point, Rubio is the
likely beneficiary.
But by March 15 it may be over. The GOP will have selected 60% of its
delegates by then, and Trump may have an insurmountable lead if he wins big on
Super Tuesday. GOP primaries tend to be “winner
take all” rather than “proportional” in terms of delegate awards, so wins count
for a great deal. This is less true on
the Democratic side, where staying close, as Bernie did in both Iowa and Nevada,
yields significant delegates.
So, if Trump is going to be derailed, he has to start
losing. Nevada would be a good place to
start, but again, he has a big lead as of last week.
BTRTN PREDICTION
Our
BTRTN prediction is that Donald Trump will win the Nevada caucus rather
handily. Ted
Cruz will nose out Marco Rubio for second, and John Kasich will get by Ben
Carson for fourth. Trump has led every
poll here since July, all six of them.
That won’t change tomorrow.
|
Nevada (GOP)
|
BTRTN Prediction
|
|
Trump
|
40
|
|
Cruz
|
23
|
|
Rubio
|
21
|
|
Kasich
|
9
|
|
Carson
|
7
|
President Trump?
ReplyDeleteIt will take decades to recover if the unthinkable happens and Trump wins in November
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