Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Iowa 2016 Results: A Good Night For Cruz and Rubio, Clinton and Sanders...and BTRTN (We Called It!)


After months and months of endless campaigning and media coverage, the 2016 Iowa Caucus is (almost) in the history books.

Who Won:  While nothing is quite official yet, Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz appear to be the winners of the Iowa caucus.  Hillary won a 49.9% to 49.6% squeaker over Bernie Sanders, while Cruz edged out Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in what emerged as a three-way race, by a 28%/24%/23% count.

Who Really Won:  In the vital expectation games, the real story is a bit more complicated.  Cruz is certainly a winner, but so is Marco Rubio with his top tier third place finish.  This gives Rubio strong momentum into New Hampshire (on February 9), where he will try to give a knockout blow to the rest of the “mainstream” wing of the GOP with a strong second place finish (to Trump) or even a win (unlikely).  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton did well to eke out a victory, preventing the specter of Sanders taking the first two events of the campaign season.  But Sanders can claim enormous credibility as a candidate (though I doubt that will translate to wins in the South after he takes New Hampshire.)

Who Lost:  Donald Trump proved fallible, which is a blow to his brand but not necessarily his prospects.   The Donald is in for a long slog now again both Cruz and (presumably) Rubio, but his prospects remains good.  The prior two winners of the GOP Iowa Caucus, Rick Santorum (in 2012) and Mike Huckabee (in 2008) did very poorly.  Huckabee has already dropped out, as has Martin O’Malley, more will follow either before or after New Hampshire.

And We Won Too:  It was an excellent night for Born To Run The Numbers, having called both races in the proper rank order and nearly the correct percentages, particularly on the GOP side.  We get credit for seeing the Rubio burst at the end, and for assessing that Trump’s broad appeal would not overcome Cruz’s organization (despite Cruz’s numbers fading toward the end).  Here is a comparison of the projected results versus the actuals…I have not found any other site that did better!  (See the article below for our predictions.)

IOWA GOP
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
IOWA DEM
BTRTN
Prediction
Actual
Cruz
25
28
Clinton
50
50
Trump
24
24
Sanders
46
50
Rubio
22
23
O'Malley
4
0
Carson
7
9
Paul
5
5
Bush
4
3
Fiorina
2
2
Kasich
3
2
Huckabee
4
2
Christie
3
2
Santorum
1
1


Back soon with thoughts on New Hampshire...stay tuned.

3 comments:

  1. I defy anyone to find a better, more accurate prediction of the outcome of these caucuses by any other pundit, pollster or news source in the United States of America. What a coup for BTRTN. Spread the word to your friends... this site is the real deal.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You really nailed it! I was pretty sure Trump was going to win Iowa.

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  3. Good Gawd "Mot" -- you NAILED it!! I am out of country, but did Nate come near as close? How do you do it? CONGRATS you superior pundit you!

    ReplyDelete

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