Swing State Pres

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

March 8 Predictions: Clinton and Trump Will Sweep "Super Tuesday 2" Convincingly

If Ted Cruz is going to mount a serious “alternative” challenge to Donald Trump, the four March 8 GOP primaries and caucuses are a good place to start.  To date Cruz had generally shown regional strength, winning home state Texas, neighbor Oklahoma and near-neighbor Kansas.  He has also done well in caucuses, winning three of those smaller contests that reward passionate ideology and strong organizations, Iowa, Alaska and Maine.

But for Cruz to truly challenge Trump, he has to start winning races not as narrowly defined.  So, races that are primaries in non-Texas-neighbor states would be a fair gauge of whether Cruz is “catching on” and can catch Trump over the long haul.  Michigan is a perfect test case for Cruz, a primary with 59 delegates at stake.  Also on tap tomorrow are primaries in Mississippi (40) and Idaho (32), as well as a caucus in Hawaii (19).

Winning any of these will be a challenge for Cruz.  Polling has been extensive in Michigan, and Trump is leading Cruz and Kasich by a two-to-one margin, with Marco Rubio fading behind.  Mississippi, a Texas neighbor, looks no better.  There is only one poll there, from late February, but Cruz trailed Trump by two-to-one in that one as well.  Cruz is fairing slightly better in the one poll in Idaho, but still trails by 10.  There had been no polling in Hawaii at all.

On the Democratic side, there are only two races, primaries in Michigan (147 delegates) and Mississippi (40).  Both are shaping up (given the polls) to be Clinton routs, and the Bernie faithful, hopes raised after a weekend with three victories out of four (but a net gain of a piddling three delegates), may become a bit demoralized when the counting is done tomorrow.

BTRTN PROJECTIONS

This is a day when the leaders will show no mercy and sweep.  BTRTN projects that Donald Trump will win all four GOP contests and Hillary Clinton will win both Democratic primaries.

March 8 GOP
Michigan
Mississippi
Idaho
Hawaii
Delegates >>
59
40
32
19
Primary/Caucus
P
P
P
C
Trump
42
46
43
39
Cruz
22
28
28
25
Rubio
12
17
19
22
Kasich
24
10
10
14

March 8 DEM
Michigan
Mississippi
Delegates >>
147
41
Primary/Caucus
P
P
Clinton
63
75
Sanders
37
25


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