Bernie Sanders came up with a shocking win in Michigan last
night, defying a bevy of polls that had Clinton ahead by anywhere from 13 to 37
percentage points, to pull out a squeaker by two points. This was a state Clinton had been counting on
for some time, and her loss proves that even juggernauts hit speed bumps.
But let’s give this win a reality check. Sanders picked up only 9 net delegates in
Michigan, due to the wonders of proportional allocation of delegates. The other primary was in Mississippi, which
Clinton won by an astonishing margin (87/13) and picked up 29 delegates to
Sanders 4. So, on Bernie’s big night, he
actually netted out by losing 16 delegates to Clinton, 88 to 72, falling even
further behind in the only thing that matters, the delegate count.
For the time being, let’s ignore the superdelegates
(Clinton has 472 to Sanders 23). Clinton
now has a 215 lead in pledged delegates.
For Sanders to overtake her in the primary season, he has to win 55% of
the vote in the remaining contests. Now,
recognize that Clinton is likely to win big in North Carolina, Florida and New
York…let’s say 65/35 in each. That means
Sanders now has to win more than 60% of the remaining vote…and again, that’s
ignoring the superdelegates. The math
facing Sanders is overwhelming.
So, a big night for Bernie and a big win, for sure. Moral victory? Of course. Meaningful in the delegate count?
Not so much.
On the GOP side, Donald Trump won Michigan, Mississippi and
Hawaii, while Ted Cruz took Idaho. This was, of course, an excellent night for
Trump. Trump is looking for a double
knockout blow on March 15, over Rubio in Florida, and over Kasich in Ohio. This night set him up for that outcome,
though that outcome is hardly a foregone conclusion. Rubio ran very weakly, making neither double
digits nor the delegate threshold in Michigan and Mississippi.
But Ted Cruz did not build on his weekend momentum. He did pick up 7 net delegates on Trump overall, but that
will not make much of a dent in Trump’s overall margin (now 101 delegates), and
Trump picked up solid momentum for March 15.
BTRTN PROJECTIONS
This was not the sweep we forecasted for Clinton and Trump,
but we did pick four out of the six elections correctly. Clinton lost Michigan and Trump lost Idaho.
State
|
Party
|
Candidate
|
Predict.
|
Actual
|
Abs. Diff
|
Pred. Rank
|
Act. Rank
|
Abs Rk Diff
|
Delegates Won
|
March 8
|
GOP
|
6.0
|
0.4
|
||||||
Michigan
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
42
|
37
|
5.5
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
25
|
Michigan
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
24
|
24
|
0.4
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
17
|
Michigan
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
22
|
25
|
2.9
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
17
|
Michigan
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
12
|
9
|
2.7
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
Mississippi
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
46
|
47
|
1.3
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
13
|
Mississippi
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
28
|
36
|
8.3
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
24
|
Mississippi
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
17
|
5
|
11.9
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
Mississippi
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
10
|
9
|
1.2
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
Idaho
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
43
|
28
|
14.9
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
12
|
Idaho
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
28
|
45
|
17.4
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
20
|
Idaho
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
19
|
16
|
3.1
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
Idaho
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
10
|
7
|
2.6
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
Hawaii
|
GOP
|
Trump
|
39
|
42
|
3.4
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
11
|
Hawaii
|
GOP
|
Cruz
|
25
|
33
|
7.7
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
7
|
Hawaii
|
GOP
|
Rubio
|
22
|
13
|
8.9
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
Hawaii
|
GOP
|
Kasich
|
14
|
11
|
3.4
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
State
|
Party
|
Candidate
|
Predict.
|
Actual
|
Abs. Diff
|
Pred. Rank
|
Act. Rank
|
Abs Rk Diff
|
Delegates Won
|
March 5/6
|
Dem
|
11.0
|
0.5
|
||||||
Michigan
|
Dem
|
Clinton
|
63
|
48
|
14.8
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
59
|
Michigan
|
Dem
|
Sanders
|
37
|
50
|
12.9
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
68
|
Mississippi
|
Dem
|
Clinton
|
75
|
83
|
7.6
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
29
|
Mississippi
|
Dem
|
Sanders
|
25
|
17
|
8.5
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
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