Does the Democratic storyline ever really change? Bernie Sanders wins two out of three
states! Bernie Sanders is on the
move! Bernie Sanders….barely makes a
dent in the cavernous delegate gap!
Yes, as predicted Sanders took the Utah and Idaho caucuses, and yes, as
predicted, Hillary Clinton won big in the Arizona primary. Sanders picked up 73 delegates to Clinton’s
55, thus reducing her pledged delegate gap from 321 to 303. With nights like that, Sanders will not overtake
Clinton until 2024 or so. The math
for Sanders remains daunting, or, better word, overwhelming; he needs to win 60% of the remaining delegates to
overtake her, even more if one believes the polls that point to a Clinton rout
in New York.
Ted Cruz did what he had to do in the quest to deny Donald
Trump enough delegates to seal the deal before Cleveland – he won the Utah caucus
and secured over 50% of the votes, thereby triggering a “winner-take-all”
mechanism and picking up 40 delegates to zero for Trump. On the other hand, Trump won the bigger
stakes Arizona primary, establishing his own Western state cred. Arizona is a very conservative state (home of
Sheriff Joe Arpaio) and is a neighbor of Cruz’s home state of Texas, yet Trump
won easily, picking up 58 delegates and widening his lead overall to 275
delegates. Cruz has to start winning big-state primaries...winning small state caucuses is not going to get the job done.
I’ll be back on Thursday, with a detailed look at Trump’s
chances of avoiding a brokered convention.
(Spoiler alert: they are better
than you may be hearing.)
BTRTN
We were five out of five on March 22, though our margin of victory
estimates leaved a bit to be desired, particularly in those pesky caucuses. At this point we have called 79% of all of
the races correctly, much higher in the primaries.
|
Arizona
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Trump
|
46
|
47
|
|
Cruz
|
34
|
25
|
|
Kasich
|
20
|
10
|
|
Utah
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Cruz
|
54
|
69
|
|
Kasich
|
22
|
17
|
|
Trump
|
24
|
14
|
|
Arizona
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Clinton
|
65
|
58
|
|
Sanders
|
35
|
40
|
|
Utah
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Sanders
|
52
|
79
|
|
Clinton
|
48
|
20
|
|
Idaho
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Sanders
|
52
|
78
|
|
Clinton
|
48
|
21
|
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