Monday, April 18, 2016

They Can Make it Here...Clinton, Trump Will Romp in New York (D), New York (R)

The New York primary represents an enormous opportunity for the frontrunners and fellow New Yorkers Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.  Bernie Sanders has won seven out of the last eight Democratic contests, while Ted Cruz has picked up a net +100 delegates in the last GOP events, the Utah caucus, the Wisconsin primary and the Colorado convention.  New York is the chance for the leaders to halt the momentum the underdogs have achieved, and pick up a haul of delegates to boot.

Bernie Sanders badly needs a win in New York, and a big one.  He was, of course, born in Brooklyn, and has been counting on his magnetic presence in New York to reverse the troubling polling trends that showed Hillary Clinton up by double-digit margins.  But no such reversal has happened.  There has been a wealth of polling in New York, and the most recent eight polls, over the last week or so, have been remarkably consistent.  Hillary Clinton has been up between 10 and 17 points in every single one.  There is no sign of any narrowing of the margin.  The 247 delegates consist of 84 allocated proportionately based on the statewide election, and the 163 based on the results at the district level, and Clinton will walk away with far more of them than Sanders.

And the same is true on the GOP side, with Trump ahead decisively.  The closest anyone has gotten to him in any single poll is 23 points.  But the GOP race has a kicker to it.  If Donald Trump achieves 50% or more of the vote, he will secure all of the statewide delegates (14 out of the 95).  At a time when each and every delegate counts on Trump’s tight path to 1,237, this is consequential.  And Kasich and Cruz only win statewide delegates if they reach a threshold of 20%.  As it happens, the polling indicates each candidate is hovering near these thresholds.  (The bulk of the delegates, the other 81, are allocated on a district basis, 3 for each of New York’s 27 districts; the same basic allocation and threshold rules are in place at the district level.)

So, Trump needs every last delegate (and we will compare the outcome to our “Trump Tracker” when it is over) while Hillary really only needs to win.  Technically, by the numbers, she does not really even need to win, because Sanders trails by so much in the delegate count.  But a win would be mighty welcome given the Sanders run of late and the fact that New York is home to Clinton.  A modest loss would be embarrassing, if not numerically a huge issue.  Only a 60/40 loss to Sanders would be truly consequential, and that is simply not going to happen.

BTRTN predicts that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will win the New York primary by comfortable margins.  Trump will achieve his 50% margin while Cruz will fall short of the 20% margin, finishing third behind Kasich.

New York (D)
BTRTN Prediction
Clinton
55
Sanders
45

New York (R)
BTRTN Prediction
Trump
57
Kasich
24
Cruz
19
  




1 comment:

Leave a comment