Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Trump Now Ahead of "Trump Tracker" After Five Eastern Primary Routs; Indiana Looms

Donald Trump took a giant step towards the GOP nomination by sweeping all five eastern state primaries yesterday by decisive margins, ranging from 29 to 40 points.  He is now ahead of the “Trump Tracker,” our posited path that we set up last month to the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination outright (that is, within the primary season) and avoid a potential brokered convention.  He won 105 delegates yesterday versus the “Trump Tracker” projection of 99, and is now three delegates ahead of “pace" (see below).  He now moves on to the crucial Indiana primary, which may (along with California) determine his fate.

Trump would be doing even better if not for the crazy Pennsylvania “loophole,” in which 54 of the Keystone State’s 71 delegates remain unpledged, despite Trump winning by a 57/22/19 margin over Kasich and Cruz.  For that rout, Trump earned only 17 delegates (thus far).  Many of those 54 may ultimately pledge to him, but only at the convention itself.


        THE TRUMP TRACKER

Date
State
Trump Pred.
Trump Actual
Diff.
Cum.   Diff.
5-Apr
12
6
-6
-6
19-Apr
86
89
3
3
26-Apr
24
28
4
4
26-Apr
16
16
0
0
26-Apr
29
35
6
6
26-Apr
17
17
0
0
26-Apr
13
9
-4
-4
3-May
37



10-May
0



10-May
34



17-May
13



24-May
4



7-Jun
129



7-Jun
27



7-Jun
51



7-Jun
9



7-Jun
0



TOTAL

1238

3
1241

Indiana, as stated, is extremely important to Trump’s path.  It has long been seen as a state Cruz could win, but Trump leads in three recent polls there by five to eight points.  He also leads in California by double-digits, including a 27-point lead in the most recent poll.  We continue to believe Trump will win the nomination outright.

Hillary Clinton won four out of five states, losing only in tiny Rhode Island.  There is no drama left in that race, as we at BTRTN have been saying for quite some time now; she picked up a net +65 delegates over Bernie Sanders and now has a 309 pledged delegate lead, which is insurmountable (though Sanders’s avid supporters can still claim a mathematical possibility of victory).  Clinton’s pivot to the general election has already occurred, and her mentions of Sanders will be few and far between going forward.

BTRTN

It was another good night for BTRTN, as we forecasted 9 out of the 10 races correctly (foiled only in Rhode Island, which we agonized over in advance given the split polls), and with an average miss of 3.5 points for the 25 candidates percentage we forecasted (five GOP races with three candidates, and five Dem races with two candidates).  Of particular note was the “nailing” of the Dem Pennsylvania race and darn close forecasts of virtually all the others, especially the GOP in Rhode Island, Connecticut and Delaware, and the Dems in Maryland and Connecticut.  Connecticut was a nail-biter as Sanders led most of the night, until the bigger cities and Fairfield County came in for Clinton towards the end.  For what it is worth, we were quite certain that Clinton would prevail as soon as we saw the early county-by-county results.

PA
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Trump
51
57
Cruz
25
22
Kasich
23
19
MD
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Trump
46
54
Cruz
30
23
Kasich
24
19
CT
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Trump
58
58
Kasich
26
29
Cruz
16
12
DE
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Trump
62
61
Kasich
21
20
Cruz
17
16
RI
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Trump
61
64
Kasich
25
24
Cruz
14
10
PA
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Clinton
56
56
Sanders
44
44
MD
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Clinton
62
63
Sanders
38
33
CT
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Clinton
51
52
Sanders
49
47
DE
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Clinton
54
60
Sanders
46
39
RI
BTRTN Prediction
Actual
Clinton
51
43
Sanders
49
55


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