Swing State Pres

Friday, April 8, 2016

Wyoming: The Last Hurrah in the Bernie Run

There is a caucus in Wyoming tomorrow, Saturday.  At stake are a measly 18 delegates, and there has been absolutely no polling.  But we don't need much more information than we have to write this script.  All nearby states that have held caucuses have gone for the Bern and there is no reason to believe that won't be the case here as well.

BTRTN predicts that Bernie Sanders will win the Wyoming caucuses convincingly, by a 72/28 margin.

But as with so many of the Bernie wins -- and so many of them have been in small state caucuses -- he will net only a handful of delegates and not materially close the gaping delegate gap, which stands at 219.

And then it is on to New York on April 19.  Those of us who live here know that Bernie and Hillary have already been having at it across the state and via advertising.  Clinton continues to lead the New York polls (by 10, 12 and 18 points in the most recent three polls) and those of the eastern states upcoming on April 26 (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island) where polling has been conducted.  Bernie has a very short window to not only close those gaps but turn them into 20-point wins, because that is what he needs to overcome the overwhelming math.


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