Monday, May 16, 2016

Hillary and Bernie Provide a Welcome Distraction to #DonaldTrump24/7 With Primaries in Kentucky and Oregon

Not too many people are terribly interested in the Democratic primaries anymore…all the attention is, of course, going to the unprecedented news (if you can call it that) machine that is Donald Trump.  Here is Donald, saying he never attempted to…disguise himself as his own publicist!  Here is an earthshaking story on the front page of The New York Times that – surprise! – Donald Trump has a strange history with women!  Here is Donald Trump meeting with the GOP establishment – and everyone tries to pretend that suddenly all are going to make nice!

Come to think of it, in the wake of all this, a good old fashioned Democratic primary feels like a pretty good distraction, like a baseball exhibition game in March.  At least it feels like reality, even if it is inconsequential.

For the record, we envision a split decision tomorrow.  BTRTN forecasts that Hillary Clinton will win the Oregon primary but Bernie Sanders will take Kentucky.  There is one poll in each state – and both favor Hillary.  I think Hillary will indeed do well in Oregon where her lead was bigger (+15 points in early May), and her margin in neighboring California is  growing.  But Kentucky will be different.  Hillary had only a 5-point lead in a now-stale poll there in March, and since then she lost to Bernie in neighboring West Virginia, largely due to her announced (and weakly walked back) desire to put coal companies (and workers) out of business.  Thus the momentum will go the other way; Kentucky has a coal region of its own and Bernie shoould pull the state out.

Oregon has more delegates than Kentucky so Bernie will not even have the satisfaction of netting more delegates.  And the windmill tilting continues.

Oregon
BTRTN Prediction
Clinton
55
Sanders
45
Kentucky
BTRTN Prediction
Sanders
53
Clinton
47


2 comments:

  1. If you're right it will be a big feather in your cap. Tonight's PBS newscast had her giving up on Oregon as a lost cause and campaigning hard instead in Kentucky.

    ReplyDelete
  2. sharing is very good and posts.

    ReplyDelete

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