Swing State Pres

Friday, June 24, 2016

BTRTN Dem VP Prediction: Raising Kaine

We are quickly shifting from Brexit back to US politics.  We were calling Brexit as a very close "Remain" win, 52/48, and it went to the "Leaves" by that same percentage (the whole campaign was conducted within the margin or error).  David Cameron is out, other European right-wingers are calling for more exit votes across the EU, and world markets are reacting predictably to this shocking outcome.

Usually at BTRTN we make projections about elections, largely (though hardly exclusively) based on polling.  But occasionally we venture out into the land of gut feel on other matters of import, and we do that again today.
Our track record is pretty good on this front.  This was probably my favorite, the first Supreme Court decision on the fate of Obamacare.  I wrote this on May 12, 2012, six weeks before the Court decision, when the betting markets were in the 90% range the other way.
"I may be the only person in America who thinks they will NOT overrule {Obamacare}.  My basic theory is that Chief Justice Roberts has no interest in achieving the same legacy as Chief Justice Hughes, who presided over a conservative court known best for thwarting the New Deal in battle with FDR.  I think he’ll find a way to convince Justice Kennedy to uphold the act and then, as is his wont, join the majority for a 6-3 ruling.  You heard it here first!"
On June 28, 2012, the Court proved me right (although it was 5-4; Roberts did indeed join the liberals, but Kennedy was opposed).
And this was another good one…written in the thick of what was then known as the strangest GOP race for the Presidency ever.  On November 9, 2011, I was trying to predict where the GOP might go next, having embraced and discarded Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain and others. 
"Or maybe….just maybe…December will be Rick Santorum’s turn in the spotlight.  Sure, he’s been to all 99 counties in Iowa and is still under 5% in the polls there.  They’ve seen him, examined him very closely and they, um, don’t like him.  But guess what….he’s a true, blue social conservative.  It’s in his bones.  And he’s got some depth to him since he’s been arguing the case for twenty years.  He’s not cramming for the debates.  He’s a policy wonk.  So do I dare call a boomlet coming for Santorum?  The upcoming debates give him another shot.  By the time of the Iowa caucus, he might even be the Republican frontrunner…"
Rick Santorum did indeed escape low single digits in the polls and on January 2, he did indeed win the Iowa caucus, by 34 votes (though it took about a month to figure out the actual vote count that gave him the win).

Which brings me to right now, when we make another prediction based on instinct and logic:   BTRTN predicts that Hillary Clinton will select Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia as her Vice President.
Why Tim Kaine, when there are so many other more exciting picks out there?  There’s Bernie Sanders Himself, and Elizabeth Warren, the Castro brothers, Corey Booker, Tom Perez….the list is endless in this history-making year.
Here’s why: 
  • Bernie is not cut out to be a VP, and while Clinton would love to have his supporters, there is too much bad blood here for this to be realistic.  And more to the point, Sanders offers no swing state help, still carries that nationally untested “Socialist Democrat” label, does not display classic #2 humility, would be a difficult partner for an eight-year stint (and well into his 80's by then) -- and, perhaps most importantly, might overshadow Clinton on the campaign trail.
  • Elizabeth Warren is a formidable name and her selection would certainly excite the Bernie crowd.  She has already mastered the fine art of lacerating Donald Trump.  But she too could outshine Clinton and also could be a difficult partner.   She offers no swing state help, and, importantly, as a sitting Democratic Senator in a state with a Republican Governor, her selection – and election – would put her Senate seat at huge risk.
  • Julian Castro is highly appealing but fails the basic test – he is only 41 and not really “ready to be President of the United States.”  Castro is your classic “Hail Mary” pick, a historic pick (first Hispanic on a national ticket) but I don’t think Clinton is anywhere near the position of needing to throw the long ball – quite the opposite.  (His twin brother, Joaquin, a member of the House, is at times mentioned as a potential VP candidate as well, but he has a far lower profile.)
  • Tom Perez is the Labor Secretary, also Hispanic, but I think he is way too low profile for a VP pick.  He is basically totally unknown to the American public.
  • Corey Booker is the Senator from New Jersey, who also, as an African-American, would lend diversity to the ticket.  But Clinton has New Jersey in the bag already, and the Governor of the state, a fella named Chris Christie – remember him? – would love to name a GOP replacement for Booker.
  • Sherrod Brown, the Senator of Ohio, is a Clinton friend who passes the “comfort zone” test easily.  Clinton would love a VP with policy chops like Brown, and he is in one of the most important swing states.  But…remember, who is the Governor of Ohio?  Oh yeah, John Kasich.  Another Senate seat at risk.
That brings me to Tim Kaine.  He’s got it all.  He is a former Governor and a current Senator, serving on the Armed Service Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee – no question he checks the first box, “ready to be President.”   He is a solid-citizen-type who will never overshadow Clinton and will willingly play the second fiddle role.  Virginia is certainly an absolutely crucial swing state.  Kaine was a finalist in the Obama Veepstakes in 2008, and while his national profile is not huge, he is just the sort of soothing safe pick that makes sense for a history-making frontrunner who has no need to take a risk.
Let’s see how we do.  And don’t ask me about GOP veepstakes; I have no idea.  The main question is really not “who will Trump pick” but rather “who might possibly accept?”



75 comments:

  1. Brown, Warren and Booker (in that order) would be better choices but, as you note, would cost a Senate seat that Dems can't afford. So, I agree with your logic.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Re Brexit: scariest part to me is the analogy to our Potus campaign. All the more rational, educated observers felt it wouldn't happen in the end - even yesterday's markets bought that story. But in the end the troglodytes prevailed. Is Trump the next example of this? Seems to me that a lot of "right thinking" people may be indulging in wishful thinking - I sure hope not!

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  4. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  6. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Easily get amazon gift card generator access to redeem amazon codes online.

    ReplyDelete
  8. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commentators here naturalproductsinfo
    my blog http://linkbun.ch/04t0z

    ReplyDelete
  9. Phentermine is one of the most effective drugs that you can choose to use to lose weight, however as you will already be more than aware everyone is of course different and the amount of time you will have to wait to see the effects of taking it kicking in will vary from person to person.
    Phentermine

    ReplyDelete
  10. Such a awesome post i have discovered ever on web,thanks for share this.
    Gurgaon Escorts Services
    Independent Escorts Services in Aerocity

    ReplyDelete
  11. This article you have shared here very awesome. I read deeply your article, the points you have mentioned in this article are awesome.This is impressive and also great information, This is excellent. You can also visit my site. $1 Hosting for best web hosting packages.

    ReplyDelete
  12. This is what i am searching for. All the information of your blog is so useful for me. Active Target Coupons here you can visit for finding best online shopping deals and discount.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I am so impressed with you content writting. You have used great words in it. godaddy $1 hosting coupon this is the place which gives you all hosting products at low price.

    ReplyDelete
  14. This is very educational content and written Medex supply coupon well for a change. It's nice to see that some people still understand how to write a quality post.!

    ReplyDelete
  15. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  16. NooCube is an extremely impressive nootropic supplement that uses ingredients which have been clinically proven to improve brain function, enhance cognitive performance, and increase efficiency.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thank you for such a well written article. It's full of insightful information and entertaining descriptions. Your point of view is the best among many.
    Brestrogen

    ReplyDelete
  18. Provillus Reviews is considered to have a totally natural formula especially for individuals who are facing the problem of the hair treatment, genetic hair loss.

    ReplyDelete
  19. vigrx plus coupons Does VigRX plus really work? Real reviews from customers, ingredients, side effects, clinical studies and where to buy.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Male Extra Reviews Looking for proven pills for male sexual performance, stronger erection without side effects? Male Extra Pills maybe the answer

    ReplyDelete
  21. male enhancement pills that work Does VigRX plus really work? Real reviews from customers, ingredients, side effects, clinical studies and where to buy.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Wow i can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.
    best legal steroids
    phenq before and after

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hersolution Gel will ultimately lubricate your vagina, thus increasing the sensations and your desire for sexual pleasure. HerSolution was exclusively created

    ReplyDelete
  24. Thank you for such a well written article. It's full of insightful information and entertaining descriptions. Your point of view is the best among many.

    SEO Powersuite Review

    Best Black Friday Web Hosting Deals

    InMotion Hosting Black Friday Deal

    Siteground Black Friday Discount Deal

    Grammarly Premium Trial

    Hostgator Flash Sales

    ReplyDelete
  25. Maxoderm is the revolutionary topical Male Enhancement System discovered by thousands to help improve erection quality, sensation and the feeling of firmness.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Phen24 vs phenqt's been 90 days since I started using Phen24 to try and lose weight. Here's my Phen24review and results with and how I did it..

    ReplyDelete
  27. phenq savingsWow I can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.

    ReplyDelete
  28. phentermine 375 Wow I can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.

    ReplyDelete
  29. DO NOT BUY Provacyl Until You Read This Review! Check Out Side Effects, User Feedback and genuine Comments! Tips Included.
    phenq

    ReplyDelete
  30. trenbolone australia Wow I can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.

    ReplyDelete
  31. artmooreforcongress Wow I can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Breast Enlargement Pills For Women Breast Size Enhancement Pills for Fuller Larger Breasts. Total Curve

    ReplyDelete
  33. hersolutiongelbuy Wow I can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.

    ReplyDelete
  34. PhenQ is a prescription-free, natural alternative to weight loss drug phentermine. Now that you have an idea for how diet pills work, let's look at your best options.

    ReplyDelete
  35. PhenQ Reviews is a prescription-free, natural alternative to weight loss drug phentermine. Now that you have an idea for how diet pills work, let's look at your best options.

    ReplyDelete
  36. legaltrenbolonesteroids Wow I can say that this is another great article as expected of this blog.Bookmarked this site.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Great Post !! Very interesting topic will bookmark your site to check if you write more about in the future webstagram

    ReplyDelete
  38. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  39. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  40. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  41. component analysis
    Bitcoin, frequently depicted as a cryptographic money, a virtual cash or a computerized money – is a sort of cash that is totally virtual.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Looking for the best WordPress plugins to use on your business website? Here's our expert-pick of the must have WordPress plugins
    wordpress wiki

    ReplyDelete
  43. Limo Rental
    Akron Limousine Service is Northeast Ohio’s premier limousine company for all occasions. We pride ourselves on providing the ultimate package of convenience, luxury and value!

    ReplyDelete
  44. Great job for publishing such a nice article. Your article isn’t only useful but it is additionally really informative. Thank you
    Concrete Floor Leveling
    Concrete Floor Repair

    ReplyDelete
  45. Download WordPress for Windows now from christofergrandin.se 100% safe and virus free. Download WordPress latest version
    wordpress tutorial
    wordpress.org login

    ReplyDelete
  46. En hotellvistelse är mer än en nybäddad säng. Detta är ett av skälen till att man lägger sina hotell intill trevliga evenemang och butiksstråk.
    wordpress wiki

    ReplyDelete
  47. Want a beautiful mobile, tablet, and desktop experience? Feeling limited by your existing website template or tool? Go pro for free with Famous. Famous is free. Beautiful Templates.

    wordpress.org login

    ReplyDelete

  48. Most Indian Men needs a young lady who is hot and in addition clever at the same time. Be that as it may, shockingly most elite girls are exhausting. Their service satisfaction level is so basic, yet can’t strike a discussion making their arrangement lacking something. As of now out Massage Parlor in Delhi They are a great listener, can chat on you on any point and give you such a delicate treatment. Check our other services...
    Escorts in Lucknow
    Call Girls in Lucknow
    Escorts Service in Delhi
    Call Girls in Aerocity

    ReplyDelete
  49. Limo Rental
    Today people get limo’s for parties, birthdays, anniversaries, tours, or even just a night out on the town.

    ReplyDelete

  50. You can surf the varieties of escorts here. Female Escorts in Faridabad In the list of factors to get various people around the world. You can make your evening amazing with this quality Call Girls in Faridabad Every one of our escorts is completely ready to give you personal moments packed with the colour tone of avarice. Check our other services...
    Russian Escorts in Faridabad
    Call Girls in Agra
    Escorts Service in Agra
    Russian Escorts in Faridabad

    ReplyDelete
  51. Cheap Rates call Girl In Gurgaon, we offer the best escorts service in low rate with safety, we provide Female Call Girls with complete satisfaction. Girls Mobile Number In Gurgaon

    ReplyDelete
  52. For any service to thrive and generate ROIs at an unprecedented level, the service provider must be providing a solution to the customers problem. The same is the case with escort service in Goa. When you have escort term on your lips and in your mind, the first thing you correlate with would be intercourse. escort Service In Goa

    ReplyDelete
  53. Call Girls in Lucknow are not bound to listen to anything that you say. With such a feeling, you will definitely get the sex but not the satisfaction. In the end, these call girls are human too and they deserve the care and compassion. Escort Service In Lucknow

    ReplyDelete
  54. I recently came across a great dog food guide that I thought I would share. There is a frightening lack of regulation when it comes to You B Three
    website
    Be Empowered

    ReplyDelete
  55. My Life, I Guess... Cash, Mistakes and Making its Most. Keeping the Person in Personal Finance I Guess find ways to make more money from her blog. She's been blogging a long time
    blog
    read more

    ReplyDelete
  56. eBay is the best place to start selling online! Millions of shoppers want to buy your new or used items, and it's easy to sell online and make money.
    ebay
    how to sell on ebay

    ReplyDelete




  57. Also known to come with crucial offerings for its sensible, down-to-earth and important clients,Russian Call Girls in Lucknow really means in fulfilling their lives with cheerful moments to make love in concern to ensure them live their lives in abetter way. Check our other Services...
    Russian Escorts in Goa
    Russian Escorts in Lucknow
    Housewife Escorts in Lucknow
    Russian Call Girls in Lucknow
    Russian Escorts in Goa
    Russian Escorts in Goa


    ReplyDelete
  58. Worked as a Senior SEO & Digital & Social Media & Graphics Design & cpa & Drop shipping & Video Editing And Youtube & Web Design And Development & Affiliate Marketing trainer at BITM (BASIS Institute of Technology & Management) since 2014-2018. Successfully completed 50+ SEO batches, 20+
    Affiliate Marketing batches and 30+ workshop on Freelancing under SEIP (Skills for Employment Investment Program).
    OUTSOURCING TRAINING IN BANGLADESH

    ReplyDelete
  59. webehigh is a community of stoner who want to give you the best backwoods flavors like grape backwood, liquid herbal incense. High grade kush and more. Visit webehigh.me for more.
    liquid herbal incense

    ReplyDelete
  60. We proudly offer residents or businesses: tree pruning, tree trimming, tree removal, stump removal, stump grinding, brush chipping, cabling and bracing, emergency and cleanup services in the Fort Worth Metroplex. Our tree services are high demand in Fort Worth, and all the surrounding cities in Tarrant County. Give us a call today at (817) 380-6586 and we will help you.
    fort worth tree removal

    ReplyDelete

Leave a comment