BTRTN's Complete By-The-Numbers Up-To-The-Minute View of the Presidential, Senate and House Races

Today we provide BTRTN’s updated numbers, summarizing the latest look at the Presidential, Senate and House races.  We’ll add the Governors in September.

PRESIDENT

Since our last 50-state look at the Electoral College two weeks ago, Donald Trump forced out campaign manager Paul Manafort, and installed the head of arch-right Breitbart News, Steve Bannon, as campaign “CEO.”  Known as a flame-thrower right-winger given to the outrageous (sample Breitbart headline: “There’s No Hiring Bias Against Women in Tech, They Just Suck at Interviews”), Bannon's hiring seemed to signal that the new marching orders would be “Let Trump Be Trump.”  And yet, Trump’s first speech under the new regime was, by his standards, conciliatory, admitting mistakes and apologizing for causing “personal pain.”  Not an apology to anyone in particular, or for any of the dozens of specific hateful comments on record, just a vague, wooden (scripted) statement.  But a change nonetheless.

Since this latest attempt at “New Trump” was unveiled, he has indeed stayed on the teleprompter.  But he has also continued to confound in strange ways.  He called on African-Americans to vote for him because, in his view, their collective condition was so downtrodden, “what do you have to lose?”  He labeled Hillary Clinton a “bigot” (apparently in response to her calling him a “racist,” though she appears to have far more justification for her choice of epithet).  And Trump claimed that Clinton was “physically unfit for office” without offering evidence, while he himself had his personal doctor issue a four-paragraph letter that was, according to the doctor, dashed off in just five minutes (complete with typos) as his only medical declaration to date.  (Look for a more complete version to be unveiled at the same time he releases his tax returns.)

Arguably Trump zoomed to the popularity that ultimately won him the nomination on two bold promises, both clear, unambiguous and brand new.  He would fund his own campaign, and therefore not be beholden to any special interests.  And he would immediately deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. back to their homelands.  He has already broken the first promise, and now seems well on the way toward renouncing the second.  In the last several days, Trump has wandered around immigration policy in some of the detail, seemingly for the first time.  Resembling Simone Biles in the floor exercises, he first flip-flopped toward a more progressive policy, then back flipped to a more hardline one (after Ann Coulter went nuts).  Thus we now have a Donald Trump who courts donors and shifts policy positions depending on the audience, so what makes his candidacy all that unique anymore?

Hillary Clinton – who is also running for President, if you hadn’t noticed – has also had a bumpy stretch.  She learned that she will have to submit written responses, under oath, to the courts in yet another airing of the email case, before the election – and this was considered a “good news” outcome since she avoided having to face opposition lawyers in a deposition, as her campaign had feared.  And the Clinton Foundation continues to cause headaches.  While there is no “smoking gun” in either controversy, there are plenty of shadows, and Clinton has to be thankful that this is the year that Donald Trump, with all of his weaknesses, was swept to the GOP nomination.  I can well imagine a Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush giving her far more trouble than Trump if they were the GOP nominee in 2016.  Fortunately, the GOP remains a party more interested in espousing principals than winning elections.

Where has all this left the race?  The BTRTN look is remarkably unchanged.  Trump has not moved in either direction, still stuck at roughly the 40% mark, while Clinton has been nicked, losing a point in her standing versus early August to 46% and her overall margin is now in the 5-6 point range..

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT:  NATIONAL POLLS
Head-to-Head	Polls Aug 1-14	Polls Aug 15-28
Clinton	47.2	45.8
Trump	40.7	40.5
N/A	12.1	13.7
Spread (D - R)	6.5	5.4

In the wake of the nastiness, the third-party candidates are starting to gain some attention, particularly the quest of Libertarian Gary Johnson to make the 15% threshold required to earn a podium in the debates.  Johnson has a long way to go, as he currently stands at 8%.  It is worth noting that Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein tend to hurt Clinton more than Trump, though only marginally, when they are included in the survey questioning (the two-way polls differ from above because we have used only the polls that also had four-way options, so we can make a direct comparison).

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: FOUR-WAY POLLS
Head-to-Head	2-Way	4-Way	Diff
Clinton	46.3	41.5	4.8
Trump	39.8	36.7	3.2
Johnson	na	8.0	na
Stein	na	3.5	na
Other	13.8	10.3	3.5
Margin	6.5	4.8	1.7

The BTRTN Electoral College snapshot is unchanged, with Clinton still up convincingly, 348-190.  There has been some movement in various states that have tightened the race up just a whiff.  Clinton’s lead in both Iowa and Georgia has narrowed and we have changed both from Leans to Toss-ups (with both still in the Dem column).  Within the Trump total, Missouri and South Carolina are now Toss-ups (from Lean and Solid, respectively), and Kansas, which the GOP has won by an average of 21 points over the last four elections, has gone from Solid to Lean.  But on the positive side for Trump, he has gotten stronger in Arizona (Toss-up to Lean), Kentucky (Toss-up to Solid) and Mississippi (Lean to Solid).  The full 50-state rack-up is at the end of this article.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College	August 15	August 28
CLINTON - TOTAL	348	348
Clinton - Solid	273	273
Clinton - Lean	69	47
Clinton - Tossup	6	28
Trump - Tossup	34	34
Trump - Lean	19	20
Trump - Solid	137	136
TRUMP - TOTAL	190	190
Swing States (EC)	Latest Polls as of Aug 28	BTRTN
Ohio (18)	Clinton +5	Lean D
Florida (29)	Clinton +3	Lean D
Iowa (6)	Clinton +2	Tossup D
Nevada (6)	Clinton +2	Tossup D
Georgia (16)	Clinton +1	Tossup D
Missouri (10)	Trump +1	Tossup R
N. Carolina (15)	Trump +2	Tossup R
S. Carolina (9)	Trump +3	Tossup R
Alaska (3)	Trump +4	Lean R
Arizona (11)	Trump +5	Lean R
Kansas (6)	Trump +5	Lean R

The headline here:  this snapshot shows that Clinton has enough votes in the "Solid" category -- 273 -- to win (you need 270, of course).  She does not need any more of the current line-up of swing states.  And she leads in Ohio and Florida and three other swing states.   Trump needs a big push, major Clinton stumbles and decisive debate wins to chip away at Clinton's commanding position.

One point of interest:  if you look at each state based on the average margin of the past four elections, only three states are deviating from the party whose past results indicate should be ahead.  Virginia, which on average the GOP has won by two points over the last four presidential elections, is solidly in the blue in 2016, with changing demographics and the presence of Tim Kaine accounting for the change.  Florida, a perennial toss-up (the average margin over the past four presidential elections favors the GOP by a mere +0.3 points), is also blue as of now, with Clinton up +3.  And Georgia, solidly red since 2000 by an average of 10 points, is now Clinton +1.

SENATE

There has been little new polling in the last two weeks, and the snapshot for the Senate remains a 50/50 split, which would give Senate control to the party that wins the White House.  While the Dems still show the same split among Solids/Leans/Toss-ups, the GOP has shown a bit of movement.  A new poll in Arizona now shows John McCain in control by double-digits (assuming he wins next week’s GOP primary), which pushes Arizona into the Solid column. 

The full rack-up of each Senate race is at the end of this article.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate	August 15	August 28
DEM TOTAL	50 (+4)	50 (+4)
Dem Holdover	36	36
Dem Solid	9	9
Dem Lean	5	5
Dem Toss-up	0	0
GOP Toss-up	2	2
GOP Lean	4	3
GOP Solid	14	15
GOP Holdover	30	30
GOP TOTAL	50 (-4)	50 (-4)
Senate By State	Latest Polls                   as of Aug 28	BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA		Solid D
Wisconsin	Feingold (D) + 11	Lean D
Indiana	Bayh (D) + 7	Lean D
New Hampshire	Hassan (D) + 6	Lean D
Illinois	Duckworth (D) + 5	Lean D
Pennsylvania	McGinty (D) +3	Lean D
Nevada	Heck (R) Tie	Toss-up R
Missouri	Blunt (R) + 2	Toss-up R
N. Carolina	Burr (R) + 4	Lean R
Florida	Rubio (R) + 6	Lean R
Ohio	Portman (R) + 7	Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OK,SC,SD		Solid R

HOUSE

The BTRTN snapshot of the likely composition of the House has changed only marginally since several weeks ago.  Using our proprietary regression model, we now see the Dems picking up 22 seats, instead of 23, not enough to reclaim a majority, but solid progress.

House	As of 8/15	As of 8/29
Democrats	211 (+23)	210 (+22)
Republicans	224 (-23)	225 (-22)

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Here are the state-by-state charts for the Presidency and the Senate.  Note:  Change in BTRTN’s rating since the prior update are noted in CAPS in the BTRTN Rating column.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
Democrat Minus Republican	2016 Electoral Votes	Avg D-R Mrgn Lst 4	Latest 2016 Polls as of 8/11/16	Latest 2016 Polls as of 8/28/16	BTRTN Prior Rating	BTRTN Current Rating
DC	3	82	none	none	Solid	Solid
Hawaii	4	29	none	none	Solid	Solid
Rhode Island	4	26	none	none	Solid	Solid
Maryland	10	20	Clinton +35	Clinton +35	Solid	Solid
Illinois	20	16	Clinton +25	Clinton +25	Solid	Solid
Massachusetts	11	25	Clinton +24	Clinton +24	Solid	Solid
California	55	17	Clinton +23	Clinton +23	Solid	Solid
Vermont	3	26	Clinton +22	Clinton +22	Solid	Solid
Washington	12	11	Clinton +12	Clinton +19	Solid	Solid
New Jersey	14	14	Clinton +18	Clinton +18	Solid	Solid
New York	29	24	Clinton +12	Clinton +17	Solid	Solid
Wisconsin	10	5	Clinton +15	Clinton +15	Solid	Solid
Minnesota	10	6	Clinton +13	Clinton +13	Solid	Solid
Virginia	13	-2	Clinton +12	Clinton +13	Solid	Solid
Colorado	9	0.2	Clinton +8	Clinton +12	Solid	Solid
Oregon	7	8	Clinton +11	Clinton +11	Solid	Solid
Pennsylvania	20	6	Clinton +11	Clinton +11	Solid	Solid
Delaware	3	16	Clinton +10	Clinton +10	Solid	Solid
Maine	4	12	Clinton +7	Clinton +10	Solid	Solid
New Hampshire	4	4	Clinton +17	Clinton +9	Solid	Solid
Michigan	16	9	Clinton +10	Clinton +9	Solid	Solid
New Mexico	5	6	Clinton +8	Clinton +9	Solid	Solid
Connecticut	7	17	Clinton +7	Clinton +7	Solid	Solid
Ohio	18	0.2	Clinton +5	Clinton +5	Lean	Lean
Florida	29	-0.3	Clinton +4	Clinton +3	Lean	Lean
Iowa	6	4	Clinton +4	Clinton +2	Lean	Lean
Nevada	6	3	Clinton +2	Clinton +2	Tossup	Tossup
Georgia	16	-10	Clinton +6	Clinton +1	Lean	TOSSUP
Missouri	10	-5	Trump +6	Trump +1	Lean	TOSSUP
N. Carolina	15	-7	Trump +2	Trump +2	Tossup	Tossup
S. Carolina	9	-13	none	Trump +3	Solid	TOSSUP
Alaska	3	-23	Trump +5	Trump +4	Lean	Lean
Arizona	11	-9	Trump +2	Trump +5	Tossup	LEAN
Kansas	6	-21	Trump +14	Trump +5	Solid	LEAN
Texas	38	-18	Trump +8	Trump +9	Solid	Solid
Tennessee	11	-13	Trump +9	Trump +9	Solid	Solid
Indiana	11	-11	Trump +8	Trump +11	Solid	Solid
Arkansas	6	-15	Trump +11	Trump +11	Solid	Solid
Kentucky	8	-18	Clinton +3	Trump +13	Tossup	SOLID
Mississippi	6	-15	Trump +3	Trump +15	Lean	SOLID
Montana	3	-15	none	none	Solid	Solid
Louisiana	8	-15	Trump +16	Trump +16	Solid	Solid
S. Dakota	3	-18	none	none	Solid	Solid
Utah	6	-40	Trump +12	Trump +20	Solid	Solid
Idaho	4	-34	Trump +21	Trump +21	Solid	Solid
Alabama	9	-21	none	none	Solid	Solid
N. Dakota	3	-21	none	none	Solid	Solid
Oklahoma	7	-29	Trump +24	Trump +24	Solid	Solid
Nebraska	5	-25	none	none	Solid	Solid
W. Virginia	5	-15	Trump +27	Trump +27	Solid	Solid
Wyoming	3	-39	none	none	Solid	Solid

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Dem	GOP	Poll Margin 8/28	BTRTN Rating	Hold/    Flip
Not running		46-54
California	D	Boxer	Harris	No GOP	none	Solid D	Hold
New York	D	Schumer	Schumer	Long	D + 32	Solid D	Hold
Connecticut	D	Blumenthal	Blumenthal	Carter	D + 30	Solid D	Hold
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Schatz	TBD	none	Solid D	Hold
Maryland	D	Mikulski *	Van Hollen	Szeliga	none	Solid D	Hold
Colorado	D	Bennet	Bennet	Glenn	D +16	Solid D	Hold
Oregon	D	Wyden	Wyden	Callaghan	none	Solid D	Hold
Vermont	D	Leahy	Leahy	Milne	none	Solid D	Hold
Washington	D	Murray	Murray	Vance	none	Solid D	Hold
Wisconsin	R	Johnson	Feingold	Johnson	D + 11	Lean D	FLIP
Indiana	R	Coats	Bayh	Young	D + 7	Lean D	FLIP
New Hamp.	R	Ayotte	Hassan	Ayotte	D + 6	Lean D	FLIP
Illinois	R	Kirk	Duckworth	Kirk	D + 5	Lean D	FLIP
Penn.	R	Toomey	McGinty	Toomey	D + 3	Lean D	FLIP
Nevada	D	Reid *	Masto	Heck	Tie	Tossup R	FLIP
Missouri	R	Blunt	Kander	Blunt	R + 2	TOSSUPR	Hold
N. Car.	R	Burr	Ross	Burr	R + 4	Lean R	Hold
Florida	R	Rubio	Murphy	Rubio	R + 6	Lean R	Hold
Ohio	R	Portman	Strickland	Portman	R + 7	Lean R	Hold
Georgia	R	Isakson	Barksdale	Isakson	R + 8	Solid R	Hold
Iowa	R	Grassley	Judge	Grassley	R + 9	Solid R	Hold
Kentucky	R	Paul	Gray	Paul	R + 12	Solid R	Hold
Arizona	R	McCain	Kirkpatrick	McCain	R + 13	SOLID R	Hold
S. Carolina	R	Scott	Dixon	Scott	R + 17	Solid R	Hold
Kansas	R	Moran	Wiesner	Moran	R + 20	Solid R	Hold
Utah	R	Lee	Snow	Lee	R + 33	Solid R	Hold
Louisiana	R	Vitter	24 in both parties	DecRunoff	none	Solid R	Hold
N. Dakota	R	Hoeven	Grassheim	Hoeven	none	Solid R	Hold
Oklahoma	R	Lankford	Workman	Lankford	none	Solid R	Hold
S. Dakota	R	Thune	Williams	Thune	none	Solid R	Hold
Alabama	R	Shelby	Crumpton	Shelby	none	Solid R	Hold
Alaska	R	Murkowski	TBD	Murkowski	none	Solid R	Hold
Arkansas	R	Boozman	Eldridge	Boozman	none	Solid R	Hold
Idaho	R	Crapo	Sturgill	Crapo	none	Solid R	Hold