Sunday, August 28, 2016

BTRTN's Complete By-The-Numbers Up-To-The-Minute View of the Presidential, Senate and House Races

Today we provide BTRTN’s updated numbers, summarizing the latest look at the Presidential, Senate and House races.  We’ll add the Governors in September.

PRESIDENT

Since our last 50-state look at the Electoral College two weeks ago, Donald Trump forced out campaign manager Paul Manafort, and installed the head of arch-right Breitbart News, Steve Bannon, as campaign “CEO.”  Known as a flame-thrower right-winger given to the outrageous (sample Breitbart headline: “There’s No Hiring Bias Against Women in Tech, They Just Suck at Interviews”), Bannon's hiring seemed to signal that the new marching orders would be “Let Trump Be Trump.”  And yet, Trump’s first speech under the new regime was, by his standards, conciliatory, admitting mistakes and apologizing for causing “personal pain.”  Not an apology to anyone in particular, or for any of the dozens of specific hateful comments on record, just a vague, wooden (scripted) statement.  But a change nonetheless.

Since this latest attempt at “New Trump” was unveiled, he has indeed stayed on the teleprompter.  But he has also continued to confound in strange ways.  He called on African-Americans to vote for him because, in his view, their collective condition was so downtrodden, “what do you have to lose?”  He labeled Hillary Clinton a “bigot” (apparently in response to her calling him a “racist,” though she appears to have far more justification for her choice of epithet).  And Trump claimed that Clinton was “physically unfit for office” without offering evidence, while he himself had his personal doctor issue a four-paragraph letter that was, according to the doctor, dashed off in just five minutes (complete with typos) as his only medical declaration to date.  (Look for a more complete version to be unveiled at the same time he releases his tax returns.)

Arguably Trump zoomed to the popularity that ultimately won him the nomination on two bold promises, both clear, unambiguous and brand new.  He would fund his own campaign, and therefore not be beholden to any special interests.  And he would immediately deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. back to their homelands.  He has already broken the first promise, and now seems well on the way toward renouncing the second.  In the last several days, Trump has wandered around immigration policy in some of the detail, seemingly for the first time.  Resembling Simone Biles in the floor exercises, he first flip-flopped toward a more progressive policy, then back flipped to a more hardline one (after Ann Coulter went nuts).  Thus we now have a Donald Trump who courts donors and shifts policy positions depending on the audience, so what makes his candidacy all that unique anymore?

Hillary Clinton – who is also running for President, if you hadn’t noticed – has also had a bumpy stretch.  She learned that she will have to submit written responses, under oath, to the courts in yet another airing of the email case, before the election – and this was considered a “good news” outcome since she avoided having to face opposition lawyers in a deposition, as her campaign had feared.  And the Clinton Foundation continues to cause headaches.  While there is no “smoking gun” in either controversy, there are plenty of shadows, and Clinton has to be thankful that this is the year that Donald Trump, with all of his weaknesses, was swept to the GOP nomination.  I can well imagine a Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush giving her far more trouble than Trump if they were the GOP nominee in 2016.  Fortunately, the GOP remains a party more interested in espousing principals than winning elections.

Where has all this left the race?  The BTRTN look is remarkably unchanged.  Trump has not moved in either direction, still stuck at roughly the 40% mark, while Clinton has been nicked, losing a point in her standing versus early August to 46% and her overall margin is now in the 5-6 point range..

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT:  NATIONAL POLLS
Head-to-Head
Polls Aug 1-14
Polls Aug 15-28
Clinton
47.2
45.8
Trump
40.7
40.5
N/A
12.1
13.7
Spread (D - R)
6.5
5.4

In the wake of the nastiness, the third-party candidates are starting to gain some attention, particularly the quest of Libertarian Gary Johnson to make the 15% threshold required to earn a podium in the debates.  Johnson has a long way to go, as he currently stands at 8%.  It is worth noting that Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein tend to hurt Clinton more than Trump, though only marginally, when they are included in the survey questioning (the two-way polls differ from above because we have used only the polls that also had four-way options, so we can make a direct comparison).

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: FOUR-WAY POLLS
Head-to-Head
2-Way
4-Way
Diff
Clinton
46.3
41.5
4.8
Trump
39.8
36.7
3.2
Johnson
na
8.0
na
Stein
na
3.5
na
Other
13.8
10.3
3.5
Margin
6.5
4.8
1.7

The BTRTN Electoral College snapshot is unchanged, with Clinton still up convincingly, 348-190.  There has been some movement in various states that have tightened the race up just a whiff.  Clinton’s lead in both Iowa and Georgia has narrowed and we have changed both from Leans to Toss-ups (with both still in the Dem column).  Within the Trump total, Missouri and South Carolina are now Toss-ups (from Lean and Solid, respectively), and Kansas, which the GOP has won by an average of 21 points over the last four elections, has gone from Solid to Lean.  But on the positive side for Trump, he has gotten stronger in Arizona (Toss-up to Lean), Kentucky (Toss-up to Solid) and Mississippi (Lean to Solid).  The full 50-state rack-up is at the end of this article.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College
August 15
August 28
CLINTON - TOTAL
348
348
Clinton - Solid
273
273
Clinton - Lean
69
47
Clinton - Tossup
6
28
Trump - Tossup
34
34
Trump - Lean
19
20
Trump - Solid
137
136
TRUMP - TOTAL
190
190



Swing States (EC)
Latest Polls as of Aug 28
BTRTN
Ohio (18)
Clinton +5
Lean D
Florida (29)
Clinton +3
Lean D
Iowa (6)
Clinton +2
Tossup D
Nevada (6)
Clinton +2
Tossup D
Georgia (16)
Clinton +1
Tossup D
Missouri (10)
Trump +1
Tossup R
N. Carolina (15)
Trump +2
Tossup R
S. Carolina (9)
Trump +3
Tossup R
Alaska (3)
Trump +4
Lean R
Arizona (11)
Trump +5
Lean R
Kansas (6)
Trump +5
Lean R

The headline here:  this snapshot shows that Clinton has enough votes in the "Solid" category -- 273 -- to win (you need 270, of course).  She does not need any more of the current line-up of swing states.  And she leads in Ohio and Florida and three other swing states.   Trump needs a big push, major Clinton stumbles and decisive debate wins to chip away at Clinton's commanding position.

One point of interest:  if you look at each state based on the average margin of the past four elections, only three states are deviating from the party whose past results indicate should be ahead.  Virginia, which on average the GOP has won by two points over the last four presidential elections, is solidly in the blue in 2016, with changing demographics and the presence of Tim Kaine accounting for the change.  Florida, a perennial toss-up (the average margin over the past four presidential elections favors the GOP by a mere +0.3 points), is also blue as of now, with Clinton up +3.  And Georgia, solidly red since 2000 by an average of 10 points, is now Clinton +1.

SENATE

There has been little new polling in the last two weeks, and the snapshot for the Senate remains a 50/50 split, which would give Senate control to the party that wins the White House.  While the Dems still show the same split among Solids/Leans/Toss-ups, the GOP has shown a bit of movement.  A new poll in Arizona now shows John McCain in control by double-digits (assuming he wins next week’s GOP primary), which pushes Arizona into the Solid column. 

The full rack-up of each Senate race is at the end of this article.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate
August 15
August 28
DEM TOTAL
50 (+4)
50 (+4)
Dem Holdover
36
36
Dem Solid
9
9
Dem Lean
5
5
Dem Toss-up
0
0
GOP Toss-up
2
2
GOP Lean
4
3
GOP Solid
14
15
GOP Holdover
30
30
GOP TOTAL
50 (-4)
50 (-4)



Senate By State
Latest Polls                   as of Aug 28
BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA

Solid D
Wisconsin
Feingold (D) + 11
Lean D
Indiana
Bayh (D) + 7
Lean D
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) + 6
Lean D
Illinois
Duckworth (D) + 5
Lean D
Pennsylvania
McGinty (D) +3
Lean D
Nevada
Heck (R) Tie
Toss-up R
Missouri
Blunt (R) + 2
Toss-up R
N. Carolina
Burr (R) + 4
Lean R
Florida
Rubio (R) + 6
Lean R
Ohio
Portman (R) + 7
Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OK,SC,SD

Solid R

HOUSE

The BTRTN snapshot of the likely composition of the House has changed only marginally since several weeks ago.  Using our proprietary regression model, we now see the Dems picking up 22 seats, instead of 23, not enough to reclaim a majority, but solid progress.

House
As of 8/15
As of 8/29
Democrats
211 (+23)
210 (+22)
Republicans
224 (-23)
225 (-22)


*****************************************************************

Here are the state-by-state charts for the Presidency and the Senate.  Note:  Change in BTRTN’s rating since the prior update are noted in CAPS in the BTRTN Rating column.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
Democrat Minus Republican
2016 Electoral Votes
Avg D-R Mrgn Lst 4
Latest 2016 Polls as of 8/11/16
Latest 2016 Polls as of 8/28/16
BTRTN Prior Rating
BTRTN Current Rating
DC
3
82
none
none
Solid
Solid
Hawaii
4
29
none
none
Solid
Solid
Rhode Island
4
26
none
none
Solid
Solid
Maryland
10
20
Clinton +35
Clinton +35
Solid
Solid
Illinois
20
16
Clinton +25
Clinton +25
Solid
Solid
Massachusetts
11
25
Clinton +24
Clinton +24
Solid
Solid
California
55
17
Clinton +23
Clinton +23
Solid
Solid
Vermont
3
26
Clinton +22
Clinton +22
Solid
Solid
Washington
12
11
Clinton +12
Clinton +19
Solid
Solid
New Jersey
14
14
Clinton +18
Clinton +18
Solid
Solid
New York
29
24
Clinton +12
Clinton +17
Solid
Solid
Wisconsin
10
5
Clinton +15
Clinton +15
Solid
Solid
Minnesota
10
6
Clinton +13
Clinton +13
Solid
Solid
Virginia
13
-2
Clinton +12
Clinton +13
Solid
Solid
Colorado
9
0.2
Clinton +8
Clinton +12
Solid
Solid
Oregon
7
8
Clinton +11
Clinton +11
Solid
Solid
Pennsylvania
20
6
Clinton +11
Clinton +11
Solid
Solid
Delaware
3
16
Clinton +10
Clinton +10
Solid
Solid
Maine
4
12
Clinton +7
Clinton +10
Solid
Solid
New Hampshire
4
4
Clinton +17
Clinton +9
Solid
Solid
Michigan
16
9
Clinton +10
Clinton +9
Solid
Solid
New Mexico
5
6
Clinton +8
Clinton +9
Solid
Solid
Connecticut
7
17
Clinton +7
Clinton +7
Solid
Solid
Ohio
18
0.2
Clinton +5
Clinton +5
Lean
Lean
Florida
29
-0.3
Clinton +4
Clinton +3
Lean
Lean
Iowa
6
4
Clinton +4
Clinton +2
Lean
Lean
Nevada
6
3
Clinton +2
Clinton +2
Tossup
Tossup
Georgia
16
-10
Clinton +6
Clinton +1
Lean
TOSSUP
Missouri
10
-5
Trump +6
Trump +1
Lean
TOSSUP
N. Carolina
15
-7
Trump +2
Trump +2
Tossup
Tossup
S. Carolina
9
-13
none
Trump +3
Solid
TOSSUP
Alaska
3
-23
Trump +5
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Arizona
11
-9
Trump +2
Trump +5
Tossup
LEAN
Kansas
6
-21
Trump +14
Trump +5
Solid
LEAN
Texas
38
-18
Trump +8
Trump +9
Solid
Solid
Tennessee
11
-13
Trump +9
Trump +9
Solid
Solid
Indiana
11
-11
Trump +8
Trump +11
Solid
Solid
Arkansas
6
-15
Trump +11
Trump +11
Solid
Solid
Kentucky
8
-18
Clinton +3
Trump +13
Tossup
SOLID
Mississippi
6
-15
Trump +3
Trump +15
Lean
SOLID
Montana
3
-15
none
none
Solid
Solid
Louisiana
8
-15
Trump +16
Trump +16
Solid
Solid
S. Dakota
3
-18
none
none
Solid
Solid
Utah
6
-40
Trump +12
Trump +20
Solid
Solid
Idaho
4
-34
Trump +21
Trump +21
Solid
Solid
Alabama
9
-21
none
none
Solid
Solid
N. Dakota
3
-21
none
none
Solid
Solid
Oklahoma
7
-29
Trump +24
Trump +24
Solid
Solid
Nebraska
5
-25
none
none
Solid
Solid
W. Virginia
5
-15
Trump +27
Trump +27
Solid
Solid
Wyoming
3
-39
none
none
Solid
Solid


SENATE SNAPSHOT
State
Inc. Party
Incumbent
Dem
GOP
Poll Margin 8/28
BTRTN Rating
Hold/    Flip
Not running

46-54





California
D
Boxer
Harris
No GOP
none
Solid D
Hold
New York
D
Schumer
Schumer
Long
D + 32
Solid D
Hold
Connecticut
D
Blumenthal
Blumenthal
Carter
D + 30
Solid D
Hold
Hawaii
D
Schatz
Schatz
TBD
none
Solid D
Hold
Maryland
D
Mikulski *
Van Hollen
Szeliga
none
Solid D
Hold
Colorado
D
Bennet
Bennet
Glenn
D +16
Solid D
Hold
Oregon
D
Wyden
Wyden
Callaghan
none
Solid D
Hold
Vermont
D
Leahy
Leahy
Milne
none
Solid D
Hold
Washington
D
Murray
Murray
Vance
none
Solid D
Hold
Wisconsin
R
Johnson
Feingold
Johnson
D + 11
Lean D
FLIP
Indiana
R
Coats
Bayh
Young
D + 7
Lean D
FLIP
New Hamp.
R
Ayotte
Hassan
Ayotte
D + 6
Lean D
FLIP
Illinois
R
Kirk
Duckworth
Kirk
D + 5
Lean D
FLIP
Penn.
R
Toomey
McGinty
Toomey
D + 3
Lean D
FLIP
Nevada
D
Reid *
Masto
Heck
Tie
Tossup R
FLIP
Missouri
R
Blunt
Kander
Blunt
R + 2
TOSSUPR
Hold
N. Car.
R
Burr
Ross
Burr
R + 4
Lean R
Hold
Florida
R
Rubio
Murphy
Rubio
R + 6
Lean R
Hold
Ohio
R
Portman
Strickland
Portman
R + 7
Lean R
Hold
Georgia
R
Isakson
Barksdale
Isakson
R + 8
Solid R
Hold
Iowa
R
Grassley
Judge
Grassley
R + 9
Solid R
Hold
Kentucky
R
Paul
Gray
Paul
R + 12
Solid R
Hold
Arizona
R
McCain
Kirkpatrick
McCain
R + 13
SOLID R
Hold
S. Carolina
R
Scott
Dixon
Scott
R + 17
Solid R
Hold
Kansas
R
Moran
Wiesner
Moran
R + 20
Solid R
Hold
Utah
R
Lee
Snow
Lee
R + 33
Solid R
Hold
Louisiana
R
Vitter
    24 in both parties
 DecRunoff
none
Solid R
Hold
N. Dakota
R
Hoeven
Grassheim
Hoeven
none
Solid R
Hold
Oklahoma
R
Lankford
Workman
Lankford
none
Solid R
Hold
S. Dakota
R
Thune
Williams
Thune
none
Solid R
Hold
Alabama
R
Shelby
Crumpton
Shelby
none
Solid R
Hold
Alaska
R
Murkowski
TBD
Murkowski
none
Solid R
Hold
Arkansas
R
Boozman
Eldridge
Boozman
none
Solid R
Hold
Idaho
R
Crapo
Sturgill
Crapo
none
Solid R
Hold


2 comments:

  1. In an above compassion table trump is clearly ahead from other candidates. You can find more trump news

    ReplyDelete

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