Swing State Pres

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

BTRTN 50-State Electoral College Snapshot #8: With Two Weeks To Go, Clinton Now Has 272 Solids and Maintains Commanding Lead

With two weeks to go, Hillary Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in this Electoral College rack-up, 351/187 for the third consecutive week.  But there once again has been some modest shifting in several states, and the consequence is that she now has 272 Solids, which is, of course, two more than she needs for the presidency.  As a cushion, she continues to lead in states that comprise another 79 electoral votes, some by thin margins.  To say that Donald Trump needs a “Hail Mary” win this election is, at this point, overstating the odds.  Closer to the mark might be the phrase with which my mother’s priest used to end confessions:  he really needs “three Hail Mary’s twice.”

Trump seems to be tiring on the road, bored with screaming about rigged elections and defending himself against sexual assault charges from what is now 11 women.  Clinton has moved on, pushing to sweep the swing states and tout Democratic candidates in tight races.  Her confident and superb performance at Debate #3 is now translating to a smooth stage persona, not quite riveting or moving, but certainly in command of her good material.

The polls have flattened a bit, but she still has an astonishing 7-point margin.  Recall that in 2012, Obama and Romney see-sawed back and forth in the national polls up to Election Day, and Obama had a day-before lead of less than a point (although he had a somewhat more material grip on the swing states).

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Week Ending
Sep 17
Sep 24
Oct 1
Oct 8
Oct 15
Oct 23
Clinton
45.0
46.5
47.0
48.3
49.1
48.6
Trump
43.2
43.3
42.5
42.7
40.5
41.7
Other/NA
11.8
10.2
10.5
9.0
10.4
10.7
Margin
1.8
3.2
4.5
5.6
8.6
6.9

The big change of the week was flipping Colorado from Lean to Solid, pushing Hillary’s Solids over the 270 mark.  And overall, our BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot #8 still has Clinton up 351-187.

Despite an incredible well of fodder, we have not had a chance to write any song parodies in this campaign season, but almost exactly four years ago we wrote one to the tune of Simon & Garfunkel’s classic, “I Am a Rock (I Am An Island).”  The parody line went:  “I Am Barack, I Need Ohio.”  (It was a pretty good one, here is a link if you want to see the whole song:  http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2012/10/song-parody-i-am-barack-i-need-ohio.html.)

Back then, everyone thought Obama did need Ohio, and, like every presidential winner save one (Kennedy in 1960) since 1944, he did take it.  But the fact is, he could have lost Ohio and still won.  And that is the case with Hillary Clinton.  It is darn close in Ohio, perhaps the closest state race right now, but she can win without it, and win easily.  Ohio’s day as a bellwether state are over.

For Trump to win….should we bother going through this?  OK, he needs to defend his own red states (he has a 5-point-or-less lead in seven states), flip all of the Toss-ups and Leans that Clinton is leading (another five states) and, for good measure, then flip a Solid Blue.  Just for perspective, there have been 37 polls in those five Clinton Lean/Toss-up states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio) since October 1, and Clinton has led in 31 of them and tied two.  And in the Solid blue states, she has led in 181 out of 183 polls since August 1.  Flipping all of these -- at this point, after three debates and with early voting well underway --  this is simply not happening.

One last item worthy of note is Utah, which has suddenly turned into a close three-way race.  No, it's not Gary “What is Aleppo?” Johnson making a stand, but rather a conservative Independent named Evan McMullin who is running neck and neck and neck with Trump and Clinton (roughly 30/30/26).  McMullin is a former CIA operative, Wharton MBA and House Staffer – and a Mormom in a state that went for Romney by +48 in 2012, and appears to detest both Trump and Clinton.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College
Oct 16
Oct 23
CLINTON - TOTAL
351
351
Clinton - Solid
263
272
Clinton - Lean
59
35
Clinton - Tossup
29
44
Trump - Tossup
1
7
Trump - Lean
93
83
Trump - Solid
93
97
TRUMP - TOTAL
187
187



Swing States (EC)
Latest Polls                   as of Oct 9
BTRTN Rating
Nevada (6)
Clinton +5
Lean D
Florida (29)
Clinton +4
Lean D
N. Carolina (15)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
Ohio (18)
Clinton +1
Toss-up D
Arizona (11)
Clinton +0
Toss-up D
Utah (6)
Trump +1
Toss-up R
Alaska (3)
Trump +3
Lean R
Texas (38)
Trump +3
Lean R
Georgia (16)
Trump +3
Lean R
S. Carolina (9)
Trump +4
Lean R
Iowa (6)
Trump +4
Lean R
Indiana (11)
Trump +5
Lean R

‘***************************

Here is the full 50-state Snapshot.  Note that Maine is split (hence the asterisk), with 3 Solid electoral votes for Clinton and one Toss-up R for Trump (Maine CD 2).  Changed ratings are in CAPS.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT

2016 Electoral Votes
2012 Margin    (D-R)
Latest 2016 Polls as              of 10/23/16
BTRTN Prior Rating as of 10/16/16
BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/23/16
DC
3
84

Solid
Solid
Hawaii
4
43

Solid
Solid
Maryland
10
25

Solid
Solid
Massachusetts
11
23

Solid
Solid
Vermont
3
36

Solid
Solid
California
55
21

Solid
Solid
New York
29
27

Solid
Solid
Washington
12
14

Solid
Solid
Illinois
20
16

Solid
Solid
New Jersey
14
17

Solid
Solid
Delaware
3
19

Solid
Solid
New Mexico
5
10

Solid
Solid
Oregon
7
12

Solid
Solid
Connecticut
7
18

Solid
Solid
Rhode Island
4
27

Solid
Solid
Maine
4
15

Solid*
Solid*
Minnesota
10
8

Solid
Solid
Virginia
13
3

Solid
Solid
Michigan
16
10

Solid
Solid
New Hampshire
4
6

Solid
Solid
Pennsylvania
20
5

Solid
Solid
Wisconsin
10
7

Solid
Solid
Colorado
9
5

Lean
SOLID
Nevada
6
7
Clinton +5
Lean
Lean
Florida
29
1
Clinton +4
Lean
Lean
N. Carolina
15
-2
Clinton +2
Lean
TOSS-UP
Ohio
18
2
Clinton +1
Toss-up
Toss-up
Arizona
11
-11
Clinton +0
Toss-up
Toss-up
Utah
6
-48
Trump +1
Solid
Toss-up
Alaska
3
-13
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
Texas
38
-16
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
Georgia
16
-8
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
S. Carolina
9
-11
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Iowa
6
6
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Indiana
11
-11
Trump +5
Lean
Lean
Missouri
10
-10

Lean
SOLID
Mississippi
6
-12

Solid
Solid
Montana
3
-14

Solid
Solid
Louisiana
8
-17

Solid
Solid
S. Dakota
3
-18

Solid
Solid
N. Dakota
3
-20

Solid
Solid
Tennessee
11
-21

Solid
Solid
Kansas
6
-22

Solid
Solid
Alabama
9
-22

Solid
Solid
Nebraska
5
-23

Solid
Solid
Kentucky
8
-23

Solid
Solid
Arkansas
6
-24

Solid
Solid
W. Virginia
5
-27

Solid
Solid
Idaho
4
-32

Solid
Solid
Oklahoma
7
-34

Solid
Solid
Wyoming
3
-41

Solid
Solid


No comments:

Post a Comment

Leave a comment