BTRTN Presidential Snapshot #7: Clinton Strengthens Overwhelming Lead In a Wild, Sordid Week

It was been yet another horrific week in the campaign, and for Donald Trump, featuring an eye-popping display of sordid revelations and “scorched earth” campaign tactics.  These tactics seem to have only one goal…to so disgust and demoralize the American public on our political processes that voter turnout is suppressed.  If that is the strategy – and it is the only one that seems to fit what we are witnessing -- then we have hit a new nadir of cynicism in our political history.

To recap the dizzying pace of the last nine days – has it been only nine days since the Tape was released? – Trump issued a non-apology apology for the Tape; delivered a stalking, dark, bombastic and losing performance in Debate #2; declared war on the GOP establishment when Paul Ryan said “no mas” about the GOP presidential prospects; unwittingly unleashed a parade of woman who revealed that they had been sexually assaulted by him; and turned his campaign into a two-issue rant, first, a defense of himself at the expense of the women who charged him, and second, an unprecedented tear-down of the legitimacy of our electoral process (“the media is rigging the election”). 

What to do in the face of such a venomous display, other than get depressed?

Well, I fall back to the cold, hard numbers, which clearly reveal that we only have 21 days until we no longer have Donald Trump in our faces any more.  The man who has dominated the airwaves like no other for 18 months will indeed be silenced by the polls, whether he accepts that outcome or not.

However unseemly the past week has been, there was little change in the complexion of the race, apart from increasing the likelihood of a Clinton presidency from “very high” to “very, very high.”  The national polls do a good job of documenting Clinton’s soaring trajectory, from a shockingly close race – less than two points separating Clinton and Trump – just a month ago, to a Clinton lead approaching 9 points.  This is stunning.  Trump is barely above the 40% mark, which is remarkable for a major party candidate.  And Clinton is very close to 50%.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Week Ending	Sep 17	Sep 24	Oct 1	Oct 8	Oct 15
Clinton	45.0	46.5	47.0	48.3	49.1
Trump	43.2	43.3	42.5	42.7	40.5
Other/NA	11.8	10.2	10.5	9.0	10.4
Margin	1.8	3.2	4.5	5.6	8.6

At the state level, there has not been quite as much pickup.  In states where there was polling each week, we see a lift on average of about 1.6 points rather than the 3 points at the national level you see above.  But even with that modest uptick in the face of the sordid mess, Clinton’s lock on the presidency is now vice-like.  It’s no wonder Paul Ryan threw in the towel on a GOP presidency, from an odds perspective (although I still question the political wisdom of that surprising cave, given the potentially adverse effect on Ryan’s own position of Speaker of the House, and also his presumed presidential aspirations – the GOP rank and file do not like disloyalty, see: Cruz, Ted).

Our BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot #7 has Clinton up 351-187, with no further state flipping that can be discerned by the last week’s polling.  But we have changed the rating of many of last week’s Dem Toss-Up states to the Leans, as polls show Clinton strengthening in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.  And former Solid Trump states Texas and Missouri are now Leans.  Even Maine’s second congressional district is a Toss-up R now.  Trump has less than 100 Electoral College votes in the Solid camp, evidence of a shrinking base; just a few weeks ago he had 155 Solids.  And it could be even worse, because there has been very little polling across many traditional red states, thus no way of knowing if he is losing support where it matters most to him.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College	Oct 9	Oct 16
CLINTON - TOTAL	351	351
Clinton - Solid	263	263
Clinton - Lean	9	59
Clinton - Tossup	79	29
Trump - Tossup	0	1
Trump - Lean	46	93
Trump - Solid	141	93
TRUMP - TOTAL	187	187
Swing States (EC)	Latest Polls                   as of Oct 9	BTRTN Rating
Colorado (9)	Clinton +6	Lean D
Florida (29)	Clinton +4	Lean D
Nevada (6)	Clinton +4	Lean D
N. Carolina (15)	Clinton +4	Lean D
Arizona (11)	Clinton +2	Toss-up D
Ohio (18)	Clinton +1	Toss-up D
Maine CD2 (1)	Trump +1	Toss-up R
Alaska (3)	Trump +3	Lean R
S. Carolina (9)	Trump +4	Lean R
Iowa (6)	Trump +4	Lean R
Indiana (11)	Trump +4	Lean R
Texas (38)	Trump +4	Lean R
Missouri (10)	Trump +5	Lean R
Georgia (16)	Trump +6	Lean R

Clinton continues to have 263 Solids, meaning she needs only 7 more out of the pool of Lean D and Toss-up D’s to hit the magic 270.  All she needs is any one of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona or Ohio to hit the mark.

The only presidential drama on Election Night may be how early the race is called, and, of course, if The Donald deigns to legitimize the outcome as he slinks out the door.  Once all that is over, early on, we can turn our attention to the real drama of the evening…whether the GOP can hold onto the Senate and the House.

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Here is the full 50-state Snapshot.  Note that Maine is split (hence the asterisk), with 3 Solid electoral votes for Clinton and one Toss-up R for Trump (Maine CD 2).  Changed ratings are in CAPS.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT
	2016 Electoral Votes	2012 Margin    (D-R)	Latest 2016 Polls as              of 10/16/16	BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/9/16	BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/16/16
DC	3	84		Solid	Solid
Hawaii	4	43		Solid	Solid
Maryland	10	25		Solid	Solid
Massachusetts	11	23		Solid	Solid
Vermont	3	36		Solid	Solid
California	55	21		Solid	Solid
New York	29	27		Solid	Solid
Washington	12	14		Solid	Solid
Illinois	20	16		Solid	Solid
New Jersey	14	17		Solid	Solid
Delaware	3	19		Solid	Solid
New Mexico	5	10		Solid	Solid
Oregon	7	12		Solid	Solid
Connecticut	7	18		Solid	Solid
Rhode Island	4	27		Solid	Solid
Maine	4	15		Solid*	Solid*
Minnesota	10	8		Solid	Solid
Virginia	13	3		Solid	Solid
Michigan	16	10		Solid	Solid
New Hampshire	4	6		Solid	Solid
Pennsylvania	20	5		Solid	Solid
Wisconsin	10	7		Solid	Solid
Colorado	9	5	Clinton +6	Lean	Lean
Florida	29	1	Clinton +4	Toss-up	LEAN
Nevada	6	7	Clinton +4	Toss-up	LEAN
N. Carolina	15	-2	Clinton +4	Toss-up	LEAN
Arizona	11	-11	Clinton +2	Toss-up	Toss-up
Ohio	18	2	Clinton +1	Toss-up	Toss-up
Alaska	3	-13	Trump +3	Lean	Lean
S. Carolina	9	-11	Trump +4	Lean	Lean
Iowa	6	6	Trump +4	Lean	Lean
Indiana	11	-11	Trump +4	Lean	Lean
Texas	38	-16	Trump +4	Solid	LEAN
Missouri	10	-10	Trump +5	Solid	LEAN
Georgia	16	-8	Trump +6	Lean	Lean
Mississippi	6	-12		Solid	Solid
Montana	3	-14		Solid	Solid
Utah	6	-48		Solid	Solid
Louisiana	8	-17		Solid	Solid
S. Dakota	3	-18		Solid	Solid
N. Dakota	3	-20		Solid	Solid
Tennessee	11	-21		Solid	Solid
Kansas	6	-22		Solid	Solid
Alabama	9	-22		Solid	Solid
Nebraska	5	-23		Solid	Solid
Kentucky	8	-23		Solid	Solid
Arkansas	6	-24		Solid	Solid
W. Virginia	5	-27		Solid	Solid
Idaho	4	-32		Solid	Solid
Oklahoma	7	-34		Solid	Solid
Wyoming	3	-41		Solid	Solid