BTRTN Senate/House Snapshot #5: Dems Take Aim at Senate, House Control as Trump Implodes

There is no end to the madness of this presidential campaign.  With Paul Ryan’s decision to give up on the potential of a GOP White House and focus instead exclusively on Congress, Donald Trump’s declaration of war on Ryan and the mainstream GOP opens the possibility of Democratic control of both houses of Congress.

The problem with the “down ballot disaster” theory is that the polls are not completely cooperating, and the GOP continues to hold on to the slimmest of margins in the Senate, with mixed evidence of a post-Tape, post-Debate down ballot stampede away from the GOP.  And while the House margin is indeed slimming, the Dems are still playing catch-up ball there as well.

But give Trump another week.  If the Cosby-esque procession of women coming forward detailing Trump’s hideous sexual abuses continues, and Trump continues his “unshackled” campaign screeching, the attendant miasma may completely erase the GOP’s tenuous hold on Congress.

SENATE

This latest BTRTN Senate Snapshot still has the GOP retaining control by 51/49.  There have been relatively few swing state polls since The Tape (on October 7), the Clinton Debate #2 win (October 9), the ensuing unraveling of the uneasy GOP/Trump alliance and the emergence of a slew of Trump sexual abuse victims.  Those polls have been a mixed bag, with some evidence of movement towards the Dem candidates but also several polls – in several contests that are GOP toss-ups – that are unchanged.  The net of it all is no change in the basic contour of the race: the GOP maintains a slim lead in retaining control of the Senate, but the pressure on this lead seems to be rising.

There remain nine races in play – five of them are toss-ups.  The GOP candidate is leading in four of the toss-ups, and thus, assuming each side holds onto its “Leans,” the Democrats need to hold its toss-up leader (Pennsylvania) and pick up one of the four GOP toss-ups (Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and New Hampshire), assuming Clinton wins the White House.  The nine races in play break down like this:

·         Democrat Lean races remain Wisconsin, Indiana and Illinois.  The Dem candidates, Russ Feingold, Evan Bayh and Tammy Duckworth, respectively, all have leads in the 3-7 point range and have led their races consistently.  All three are “flips” where the current office-holder is Republican.  Add these three to the 45 Dem seats that are either not up for reelection (36) or Solid (9), and you get 48 seats, with the Dems needing to pick up two more from the other six in play.

·         Of those six, one is a GOP Lean race, Florida, with Marco Rubio up +8. But there have been no post-Tape polls so it’s too early to put this one in the Solid camp, and thus it remains at Lean R

·         And that leaves the five toss-ups: 

o    Pennsylvania which shows a very thin lead for Democrat Katie McGinty

o    North Carolina and Missouri, in which the polls – including post-Tape polls – continue to slightly favor the GOP candidate, Burr in North Carolina and Blunt in Missouri

o    New Hampshire, where there is some post-Tape evidence the race is moving toward Dem Maggie Hassan, but not enough to switch the rating, and thus remains Toss-up R for incumbent GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte

·         And that leaves the one state where we have changed our rating, Nevada.  Joe Heck is the GOP candidate running against Catherine Cortez Matso for the seat Harry Reid is vacating.  Heck has been leading in every poll except one since July – until this morning when one new poll has Cortez Matso ahead by +5.  We are reluctant to flip the state based on one poll by a local Las Vegas news station that has done no previously polling – but this one may flip.  For now we have moved it from a Lean R to a Toss-up R.

For the Dems to regain control of the Senate, they have to win two of the five toss-up states, assuming everyone holds their “Leans” and Hillary Clinton wins the White House.  Right now they are just short.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate	September 25	October 15
DEM TOTAL	49 (+3)	49 (+3)
Dem Holdover	36	36
Dem Solid	9	9
Dem Lean	3	3
Dem Toss-up	1	1
GOP Toss-up	3	4
GOP Lean	2	1
GOP Solid	16	16
GOP Holdover	30	30
GOP TOTAL	51 (-4)	51 (-4)
Senate By State	Latest Polls                   as of Oct 15	BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA		Solid D
Illinois	Duckworth (D) + 7	Lean D
Indiana	Bayh (D) + 4	Lean D
Wisconsin	Feingold (D) + 3	Lean D
Pennsylvania	McGinty (D) + 0.4	Toss-up D
Nevada	Heck (R) + 1	Toss-up R
New Hampshire	Ayotte (R) + 1	Toss-up R
N. Carolina	Burr (R) + 2	Toss-up R
Missouri	Blunt (R) + 2	Toss-up R
Florida	Rubio (R) + 8	Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OH, SC,SD		Solid R

HOUSE

As stated in prior House Snapshots, we at BTRTN have found a very strong correlation between the “Generic Ballot” (in which potential voters are asked which party they would vote for in a congressional election, without specifying candidates or a particular race).  Based on our regression equation and the Democrats current +6.2 advantage (based on six polls since “The Tape”), this BTRTN House Snapshot is a 23 seat pick-up for the Dems.  They would need 7 more seats in order to gain control of the House, and that is hardly out of the question at this point.  One poll already showed a 10-point gap.

Here is a rule of thumb for you:  every point in the generic ballot is worth roughly 3.5 seats (we don’t want to get too precise here).  The Dems need 30 seats to gain control, so their Generic Ballot has to be in the 8-9 range for the odds to reach about 50/50.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House	As of Sep 25	As of Oct 14
Generic Ballot	Dem + 3.6	Dem + 6.2
Democrats	202 (+14)	211 (+23)
Republicans	233 (-14)	224 (-23)

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The full set of Senate races are below.  CAPS indicates a change in the rating. 

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Dem	GOP	Poll Margin as of 10/15	BTRTN         Rating as of 10/15	Hold/Flip
Not running		46-54
California	D	Boxer	Harris	Sanchez (D)		Solid D	Hold
New York	D	Schumer	Schumer	Long		Solid D	Hold
Maryland	D	Mikulski *	Van Hollen	Szeliga		Solid D	Hold
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Schatz	Carroll		Solid D	Hold
Oregon	D	Wyden	Wyden	Callaghan		Solid D	Hold
Vermont	D	Leahy	Leahy	Milne		Solid D	Hold
Connecticut	D	Blumenthal	Blumenthal	Carter		Solid D	Hold
Washington	D	Murray	Murray	Vance		Solid D	Hold
Colorado	D	Bennet	Bennet	Glenn		Solid D	Hold
Illinois	R	Kirk	Duckworth	Kirk	D + 7	Lean D	Flip
Indiana	R	Coats	Bayh	Young	D + 4	Lean D	Flip
Wisconsin	R	Johnson	Feingold	Johnson	D + 3	Lean D	Flip
Pennsylvania	R	Toomey	McGinty	Toomey	D + 0.4	Toss-up D	Flip
Nevada	D	Reid *	Cortez Masto	Heck	R + 1	TOSS-UP R	Flip
New Hamp.	R	Ayotte	Hassan	Ayotte	R + 1	Toss-up R	Hold
North Carolina	R	Burr	Ross	Burr	R + 2	Toss-up R	Hold
Missouri	R	Blunt	Kander	Blunt	R + 2	Toss-up R	Hold
Florida	R	Rubio	(Murphy)	Rubio	R + 8	Lean R	Hold
Kentucky	R	Paul	Gray	Paul		Solid R	Hold
Ohio	R	Portman	Strickland	Portman		Solid R	Hold
Arkansas	R	Boozman	Eldridge	Boozman		Solid R	Hold
Iowa	R	Grassley	Judge	Grassley		Solid R	Hold
Georgia	R	Isakson	Barksdale	Isakson		Solid R	Hold
Kansas	R	Moran	Wiesner	Moran		Solid R	Hold
S. Carolina	R	Scott	Dixon	Scott		Solid R	Hold
Arizona	R	McCain	Kirkpatrick	McCain		Solid R	Hold
Utah	R	Lee	Snow	Lee		Solid R	Hold
North Dakota	R	Hoeven	Grassheim	Hoeven		Solid R	Hold
Oklahoma	R	Lankford	Workman	Lankford		Solid R	Hold
South Dakota	R	Thune	Williams	Thune		Solid R	Hold
Alabama	R	Shelby	Crumpton	Shelby		Solid R	Hold
Alaska	R	Murkowski	Metcalfe	Murkowski		Solid R	Hold
Idaho	R	Crapo	Sturgill	Crapo		Solid R	Hold
Louisiana	R	Vitter	Dec runoff of	24 D/R cands		Solid R	Hold