Friday, October 21, 2016

BTRTN Senate/House Snapshot #6: Dems Squeak Ahead in Control of Senate, Now "Lead" 50/50

It does not take much to shift the fate of the Senate, given so many Toss-up states (five), and there has been a flurry of movement in the past week.  We have changed the ratings of three states and the net of those shifts is that the Dems now hold the advantage, assuming Hillary Clinton wins the White House as expected.  The House, however, remains a bridge too far for the Dems at this point.

It seems apparent that Donald Trump’s free fall over the past two weeks has not had a dramatic impact on down-ballot polling – but even a minor impact would have monumental implications.  The impact of his “rigged election” mantra on turnout is unknowable, but it is hard to see how such a message will motivate his “core” to stampede to the polls.  But hey, Trump is long on blurting and short on strategy.

SENATE

We have shifted both Illinois and Wisconsin into the Solid D camp (from Lean D), and thus we are down to only seven races “in play.”

Excluding those seven races, the Dems have a stronghold of 47 seats (between Holdovers and Solids) and the GOP holds 46.  Thus the Dems have to win three of the seven races to secure control of the Senate (assuming a Clinton win).  At this point, our BTRTN Senate Snapshot has the Democrats regaining control in a 50/50 split, assuming a Clinton win.

The seven races in play break down like this:

·         The Dems are ahead in three races: Indiana, where Evan Bayh continues to hold a decent lead as a Lean D in an effort to flip the seat currently held by retiring GOP Senator Dan Coates; and two states that we have just changed from Toss-up R to Toss-up D, New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), which would be a flip from incumbent GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte, and Nevada, where Catherine Cortez Masto has taken the lead from Joe Heck, which would be a hold for the Dems of Harry Reid’s seat.

·         The GOP is ahead in three Toss-ups:  Pennsylvania, where incumbent Pat Toomey has regained the lead in a nip and tuck battle with Dem Katie McGinty; and two races that have been very close for a long time, Missouri (Roy Blunt) and North Carolina (Richard Burr), where the two incumbents have stubbornly held on to small leads for months now, immune to potential down-ballot effects of Donald Trump’s epic decline.

·         And the GOP also has Marco Rubio in Florida, who holds a slightly narrowing but still healthy lead and thus remains a Lean R (though very close to a Solid).

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate
October 15
October 22
DEM TOTAL
49 (+3)
50 (+4)
Dem Holdover
36
36
Dem Solid
9
11
Dem Lean
3
1
Dem Toss-up
1
2
GOP Toss-up
4
3
GOP Lean
1
1
GOP Solid
16
16
GOP Holdover
30
30
GOP TOTAL
51 (-4)
50 (-4)



Senate By State
Latest Polls as 
of Oct 15
BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,IL, MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA, WI

Solid D
Indiana
Bayh (D) +4
Lean D
Nevada
Cortez Matso (D) +2
Toss-up D
New Hampshire
Hassan (D) +3
Toss-up D
Missouri
Blunt (R) + 1
Toss-up R
Pennsylvania
Toomey (R) + 2
Toss-up R
N. Carolina
Burr (R) + 2
Toss-up R
Florida
Rubio (R) + 5
Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OH, SC,SD

Solid R


HOUSE

The House race has also moved a bit toward the Dems, but they have a bigger gap to overcome to gain control there and, at this point, they are falling short.  The Dems’ lead in the Generic Ballot inched up from 3.6 points to 4.2 points in the past week, and thus our proprietary BTRTN regression model is predicting only a 16 seat pick-up for the Dems, just over half of the 30 seats they need to turn the House blue.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House
As of Oct 15
As of Oct 22
Generic Ballot
Dem + 3.6
Dem + 4.1



Democrats
202 (+14)
204 (+16)
Republicans
233 (-14)
231 (-16)


The full set of Senate races are below.  CAPS indicate a change in the rating. 

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State
Inc. Party
Incumbent
Dem
GOP
Poll Margin as of 10/15
BTRTN Rating as of 10/22
Hold/Flip
Not running

46-54





California
D
Boxer
Harris
Sanchez (D)

Solid D
Hold
New York
D
Schumer
Schumer
Long

Solid D
Hold
Maryland
D
Mikulski *
Van Hollen
Szeliga

Solid D
Hold
Hawaii
D
Schatz
Schatz
Carroll

Solid D
Hold
Oregon
D
Wyden
Wyden
Callaghan

Solid D
Hold
Vermont
D
Leahy
Leahy
Milne

Solid D
Hold
Connecticut
D
Blumenthal
Blumenthal
Carter

Solid D
Hold
Washington
D
Murray
Murray
Vance

Solid D
Hold
Colorado
D
Bennet
Bennet
Glenn

Solid D
Hold
Wisconsin
R
Johnson
Feingold
Johnson

SOLID
Flip
Illinois
R
Kirk
Duckworth
Kirk

SOLID
Flip
Indiana
R
Coats
Bayh
Young
D + 4
Lean D
Flip
New Hamp.
R
Ayotte
Hassan
Ayotte
D + 3
TOSS-UP D
Flip
Nevada
D
Reid *
Cortez Masto
Heck
D + 2
TOSS-UP D
Hold
Missouri
R
Blunt
Kander
Blunt
R + 1
Toss-up R
Hold
Pennsylvania
R
Toomey
McGinty
Toomey
R + 2
TOSS-UP R
Hold
N. Carolina
R
Burr
Ross
Burr
R + 2
Toss-up R
Hold
Florida
R
Rubio
Murphy
Rubio
R + 5
Lean R
Hold
Kentucky
R
Paul
Gray
Paul

Solid R
Hold
Ohio
R
Portman
Strickland
Portman

Solid R
Hold
Arkansas
R
Boozman
Eldridge
Boozman

Solid R
Hold
Iowa
R
Grassley
Judge
Grassley

Solid R
Hold
Georgia
R
Isakson
Barksdale
Isakson

Solid R
Hold
Kansas
R
Moran
Wiesner
Moran

Solid R
Hold
S. Carolina
R
Scott
Dixon
Scott

Solid R
Hold
Arizona
R
McCain
Kirkpatrick
McCain

Solid R
Hold
Utah
R
Lee
Snow
Lee

Solid R
Hold
North Dakota
R
Hoeven
Grassheim
Hoeven

Solid R
Hold
Oklahoma
R
Lankford
Workman
Lankford

Solid R
Hold
South Dakota
R
Thune
Williams
Thune

Solid R
Hold
Alabama
R
Shelby
Crumpton
Shelby

Solid R
Hold
Alaska
R
Murkowski
Metcalfe
Murkowski

Solid R
Hold
Idaho
R
Crapo
Sturgill
Crapo

Solid R
Hold
Louisiana
R
Vitter
  24 D/R cand.'s
 Dec runoff

Solid R
Hold


1 comment:

  1. Thank you for the analysis!

    This is the go to site for me when I want to understand the US elections. Looking forward to your final estimate!

    ReplyDelete

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