BTRTN Senate/House Snapshot #6: Dems Squeak Ahead in Control of Senate, Now "Lead" 50/50

It does not take much to shift the fate of the Senate, given so many Toss-up states (five), and there has been a flurry of movement in the past week.  We have changed the ratings of three states and the net of those shifts is that the Dems now hold the advantage, assuming Hillary Clinton wins the White House as expected.  The House, however, remains a bridge too far for the Dems at this point.

It seems apparent that Donald Trump’s free fall over the past two weeks has not had a dramatic impact on down-ballot polling – but even a minor impact would have monumental implications.  The impact of his “rigged election” mantra on turnout is unknowable, but it is hard to see how such a message will motivate his “core” to stampede to the polls.  But hey, Trump is long on blurting and short on strategy.

SENATE

We have shifted both Illinois and Wisconsin into the Solid D camp (from Lean D), and thus we are down to only seven races “in play.”

Excluding those seven races, the Dems have a stronghold of 47 seats (between Holdovers and Solids) and the GOP holds 46.  Thus the Dems have to win three of the seven races to secure control of the Senate (assuming a Clinton win).  At this point, our BTRTN Senate Snapshot has the Democrats regaining control in a 50/50 split, assuming a Clinton win.

The seven races in play break down like this:

·         The Dems are ahead in three races: Indiana, where Evan Bayh continues to hold a decent lead as a Lean D in an effort to flip the seat currently held by retiring GOP Senator Dan Coates; and two states that we have just changed from Toss-up R to Toss-up D, New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), which would be a flip from incumbent GOP Senator Kelly Ayotte, and Nevada, where Catherine Cortez Masto has taken the lead from Joe Heck, which would be a hold for the Dems of Harry Reid’s seat.

·         The GOP is ahead in three Toss-ups:  Pennsylvania, where incumbent Pat Toomey has regained the lead in a nip and tuck battle with Dem Katie McGinty; and two races that have been very close for a long time, Missouri (Roy Blunt) and North Carolina (Richard Burr), where the two incumbents have stubbornly held on to small leads for months now, immune to potential down-ballot effects of Donald Trump’s epic decline.

·         And the GOP also has Marco Rubio in Florida, who holds a slightly narrowing but still healthy lead and thus remains a Lean R (though very close to a Solid).

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate	October 15	October 22
DEM TOTAL	49 (+3)	50 (+4)
Dem Holdover	36	36
Dem Solid	9	11
Dem Lean	3	1
Dem Toss-up	1	2
GOP Toss-up	4	3
GOP Lean	1	1
GOP Solid	16	16
GOP Holdover	30	30
GOP TOTAL	51 (-4)	50 (-4)
Senate By State	Latest Polls as  of Oct 15	BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,IL, MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA, WI		Solid D
Indiana	Bayh (D) +4	Lean D
Nevada	Cortez Matso (D) +2	Toss-up D
New Hampshire	Hassan (D) +3	Toss-up D
Missouri	Blunt (R) + 1	Toss-up R
Pennsylvania	Toomey (R) + 2	Toss-up R
N. Carolina	Burr (R) + 2	Toss-up R
Florida	Rubio (R) + 5	Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OH, SC,SD		Solid R

HOUSE

The House race has also moved a bit toward the Dems, but they have a bigger gap to overcome to gain control there and, at this point, they are falling short.  The Dems’ lead in the Generic Ballot inched up from 3.6 points to 4.2 points in the past week, and thus our proprietary BTRTN regression model is predicting only a 16 seat pick-up for the Dems, just over half of the 30 seats they need to turn the House blue.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House	As of Oct 15	As of Oct 22
Generic Ballot	Dem + 3.6	Dem + 4.1
Democrats	202 (+14)	204 (+16)
Republicans	233 (-14)	231 (-16)

The full set of Senate races are below.  CAPS indicate a change in the rating. 

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Dem	GOP	Poll Margin as of 10/15	BTRTN Rating as of 10/22	Hold/Flip
Not running		46-54
California	D	Boxer	Harris	Sanchez (D)		Solid D	Hold
New York	D	Schumer	Schumer	Long		Solid D	Hold
Maryland	D	Mikulski *	Van Hollen	Szeliga		Solid D	Hold
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Schatz	Carroll		Solid D	Hold
Oregon	D	Wyden	Wyden	Callaghan		Solid D	Hold
Vermont	D	Leahy	Leahy	Milne		Solid D	Hold
Connecticut	D	Blumenthal	Blumenthal	Carter		Solid D	Hold
Washington	D	Murray	Murray	Vance		Solid D	Hold
Colorado	D	Bennet	Bennet	Glenn		Solid D	Hold
Wisconsin	R	Johnson	Feingold	Johnson		SOLID	Flip
Illinois	R	Kirk	Duckworth	Kirk		SOLID	Flip
Indiana	R	Coats	Bayh	Young	D + 4	Lean D	Flip
New Hamp.	R	Ayotte	Hassan	Ayotte	D + 3	TOSS-UP D	Flip
Nevada	D	Reid *	Cortez Masto	Heck	D + 2	TOSS-UP D	Hold
Missouri	R	Blunt	Kander	Blunt	R + 1	Toss-up R	Hold
Pennsylvania	R	Toomey	McGinty	Toomey	R + 2	TOSS-UP R	Hold
N. Carolina	R	Burr	Ross	Burr	R + 2	Toss-up R	Hold
Florida	R	Rubio	Murphy	Rubio	R + 5	Lean R	Hold
Kentucky	R	Paul	Gray	Paul		Solid R	Hold
Ohio	R	Portman	Strickland	Portman		Solid R	Hold
Arkansas	R	Boozman	Eldridge	Boozman		Solid R	Hold
Iowa	R	Grassley	Judge	Grassley		Solid R	Hold
Georgia	R	Isakson	Barksdale	Isakson		Solid R	Hold
Kansas	R	Moran	Wiesner	Moran		Solid R	Hold
S. Carolina	R	Scott	Dixon	Scott		Solid R	Hold
Arizona	R	McCain	Kirkpatrick	McCain		Solid R	Hold
Utah	R	Lee	Snow	Lee		Solid R	Hold
North Dakota	R	Hoeven	Grassheim	Hoeven		Solid R	Hold
Oklahoma	R	Lankford	Workman	Lankford		Solid R	Hold
South Dakota	R	Thune	Williams	Thune		Solid R	Hold
Alabama	R	Shelby	Crumpton	Shelby		Solid R	Hold
Alaska	R	Murkowski	Metcalfe	Murkowski		Solid R	Hold
Idaho	R	Crapo	Sturgill	Crapo		Solid R	Hold
Louisiana	R	Vitter	24 D/R cand.'s	Dec runoff		Solid R	Hold