Swing State Pres

Monday, October 10, 2016

BTRTN's 50-State Electoral Snapshot #6: Clinton Regains Total Command -- and That's Pre-Tape, Pre-Debate #2

It’s all over but for the voting at this point.  And the voting itself is already well underway.  It is estimated that 34-36% of voters will cast their ballots before Election Day, up from 32% in 2012.

Yes, as Steve pointed out in his post "Trump's Train Finally Arrives at 'Too Far' ", Donald Trump has finally gone “too far” in his bizarre campaign, with video taped comments so repugnant that the “belief system” the GOP has carefully constructed around Trump has finally crumbled.  The central lie put forward by Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Reince Priebus and every other GOP leader that endorsed him – that Trump was “normal” if “unconventional” – has been exposed.  And the rats who are still on the Trump ship are writhing in public agony over their next step.  

According to a CNN scientific poll, Hillary Clinton won Debate #2 last night, by a 57/34 margin, an incredibly dark and ugly affair featuring no opening handshake and 90 minutes of almost non-stop Trump vitriol, lies, pacing and stalking while Clinton held her ground, parried attacks and tried to inject some positivity into the proceedings.  Another scientific poll, by YouGov, also had it as a Clinton win but by a smaller margin, 47/42.

As for the state of the race, the latest numbers – which do not reflect, as yet, the effects of either The Tape or the debate – show a race tilting sharply towards Clinton.  Her comeback from her low point in mid-September, when she sank below 300 projected Electoral College delegates and a less-than-2-point lead in the national polls, has come in three stages.  First, the noise died down from the issues that plagued her in early September (the hiding of her pneumonia, her “basket of deplorable” gaffe).  Second was the Clinton rout of Trump in the September 26 debate, and the ensuing Trump-extended Miss Universe debacle.  Those events have propelled Clinton’s margin from 1.8 points to its current 5.6 point level.  And finally, the impact from The Tape (and perhaps Debate #2), which has yet to be reflected in the polls, but it is not hard to predict that the margin will further expand.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Week Ending
Aug 27
Sep 3
Sep 10
Sep 17
Sep 24
Oct 1
Oct 8
Clinton
46.5
45.8
46.2
45.0
46.5
47.0
48.3
Trump
40.2
41.8
42.8
43.2
43.3
42.5
42.7
Other/NA
13.3
12.3
11.0
11.8
10.2
10.5
9.0
Margin
6.3
4.0
3.4
1.8
3.2
4.5
5.6

Our BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot #6 has Clinton up 351-187, with recent polling flipping both Ohio and Arizona from Trump to Clinton, which accounts for the change from the 322-216 count in our last Snapshot #5 last week.  In addition, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have swung from Lean D to Solid D, and Alaska and Indiana came back from Solid R to Lean R.  Only Nevada moved in the wrong direction for Clinton, from Lean D to Toss-up D.  And again, this Snapshot is based on pre-Tape/pre-debate polls.

Importantly, Clinton has broken through the 50%+ barrier on several polls, and her 48.3% average over the past week is at a high.   She now has 263 Solids, only 7 short of the magic 270.  And Colorado is just short of Solid, and their nine delegates would put her over the top.  Not to mention the 79 toss-ups that favor her marginally now, which could be reasonably expected to move more to Clinton in polling this coming week.

Trump’s support is rapidly dwindling, now down to only the reddest of the red states, and it is even unclear how solid those states really are, since there has been virtually no polling in them.  Trump has a single-digit margin in plenty of states that are typically solid red; Alaska, Texas, Georgia and South Carolina are showing 15-20 point polling swings versus Romney’s 2012 winning margin.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College
Oct 2
Oct 9
CLINTON - TOTAL
322
351
Clinton - Solid
233
263
Clinton - Lean
35
9
Clinton - Tossup
54
79
Trump - Tossup
29
0
Trump - Lean
32
46
Trump - Solid
155
141
TRUMP - TOTAL
216
187



Swing States (EC)
Latest Polls                   as of Oct 9
BTRTN Rating
Colorado (9)
Clinton +6
Lean D
Florida (29)
Clinton +3
Toss-up D
Nevada (6)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
N. Carolina (15)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
Arizona (11)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
Ohio (18)
Clinton +1
Toss-up D
Alaska (3)
Trump +3
Lean R
S. Carolina (9)
Trump +4
Lean R
Iowa (6)
Trump +4
Lean R
Georgia (16)
Trump +5
Lean R
Indiana (11)
Trump +5
Lean R

You can easily envision the five Toss-up D’s that are in Clinton’s column moving steadily into “Lean D” or even “Solid D” over the next week.  And perhaps there will be more flipping from Trump’s Lean R’s.  Trump is falling in an abyss that does not appear to have a bottom.  Trump’s interviews with Howard Stern over a 17-year period have already emerged – they are awful – and the producer of “The Apprentice” has vowed to release some outtakes that he says are even worse than The Tape.

The GOP endorsement defections are piling up, and look for any number of GOP Senators up for re-election bailing out soon.  Mark Kirk of Illinois was an early defector.  Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire called Trump a “role model for our children” last week, and had to walk that back even before The Tape.  She has now “unendorsed” him, as has John McCain of Arizona and GOP Senate candidate Joe Heck of Nevada. 

Other Senators in tight races to keep an eye on include Toomey of Pennsylvania, Blunt of Missouri, Burr of North Carolina, Johnson of Wisconsin, Rubio of Florida and GOP candidate Young of Indiana.  Already the list of “un-endorsers” among GOP Senators is long – in addition to McCain, Kirk and Ayotte, it includes, just in the last 48 hours, Thune (South Dakota), Sasse (Nebraska), Crapo (Idaho), Lee (Utah), Murkowski (Alaska) and Capito (West Virginia).  That is quite a red state line-up of defectors.

As for Mike Pence…there has been widespread speculation that Pence might step down, given that Pence declined to play his usual explainer/enabler role as Chief Trump Sap Surrogate after The Tape came out. Such talk was then re-fueled by Trump’s public break with Pence over Syria in the debate last night.  But I doubt Pence will drop out.  One post-Tape poll showed that only 12% of Republicans want Trump to resign the ticket.  Pence knows that loyalty is highly valued by GOP voters, and I’m sure he went to school on the reaction to Ted Cruz’s non-endorsement at the GOP debate, which was widely vilified.  So look for Pence to hang-in, though perhaps with a bit more distance from The Donald than before.

‘***************************

Here is the full 50-state Snapshot.  Note that Maine is split (hence the asterisk), with 3 electoral votes for Clinton and one for Trump.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT

2016 Electoral Votes
2012 Margin    (D-R)
Latest 2016 Polls as              of 10/9/16
BTRTN Prior Rating as of 10/2/16
BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/9/16
DC
3
84

Solid
Solid
Hawaii
4
43

Solid
Solid
Maryland
10
25

Solid
Solid
Massachusetts
11
23

Solid
Solid
Vermont
3
36

Solid
Solid
California
55
21

Solid
Solid
New York
29
27

Solid
Solid
Washington
12
14

Solid
Solid
Illinois
20
16

Solid
Solid
New Jersey
14
17

Solid
Solid
Delaware
3
19

Solid
Solid
New Mexico
5
10

Solid
Solid
Oregon
7
12

Solid
Solid
Connecticut
7
18

Solid
Solid
Rhode Island
4
27

Solid
Solid
Maine
4
15

Solid*
Solid*
Minnesota
10
8

Solid
Solid
Virginia
13
3

Solid
Solid
Michigan
16
10

Solid
Solid
New Hampshire
4
6

Solid
Solid
Pennsylvania
20
5
Lean
SOLID
Wisconsin
10
7
Toss-up
SOLID
Colorado
9
5
Clinton +6
Lean
Lean
Florida
29
1
Clinton +4
Toss-up
Toss-up
Nevada
6
7
Clinton +2
Lean
TOSS-UP
N. Carolina
15
-2
Clinton +2
Toss-up
Toss-up
Arizona
11
-11
Clinton +2
Toss-up
TOSS-UP
Ohio
18
2
Clinton +0
Toss-up
TOSS-UP
Alaska
3
-13
Trump +3
Solid
Lean
S. Carolina
9
-11
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Iowa
6
6
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Georgia
16
-8
Trump +5
Lean
Lean
Indiana
11
-11
Trump +5
Solid
Lean
Missouri
10
-10

Solid
Solid
Mississippi
6
-12

Solid
Solid
Montana
3
-14

Solid
Solid
Texas
38
-16

Solid
Solid
Utah
6
-48

Solid
Solid
Louisiana
8
-17

Solid
Solid
S. Dakota
3
-18

Solid
Solid
N. Dakota
3
-20

Solid
Solid
Tennessee
11
-21

Solid
Solid
Kansas
6
-22

Solid
Solid
Alabama
9
-22

Solid
Solid
Nebraska
5
-23

Solid
Solid
Kentucky
8
-23

Solid
Solid
Arkansas
6
-24

Solid
Solid
W. Virginia
5
-27

Solid
Solid
Idaho
4
-32

Solid
Solid
Oklahoma
7
-34

Solid
Solid
Wyoming
3
-41

Solid
Solid


No comments:

Post a Comment

Leave a comment