BTRTN's Official Predictions: Hillary Clinton Wins Historic Race; Dems Take Back Senate (Barely); GOP Maintains Firm Control of House and State Houses

At long last Election Day has arrived.  In just five hours, voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire will cast the first ballots in the election.  And when most of the ballots are counted nationwide, this “long national nightmare” of a race, unprecedented in venom, punctuated with sordid disclosures, October surprises galore, and a November one to boot, will finally end.  The revelation from FBI Director James Comey that he had found, in a “new“ trove of emails, absolutely nothing at all (simply a combination of duplicated or irrelevant emails) came too late to flip the election back to the large margins Clinton enjoyed before their discovery.  But it may have helped solidify the outcome and perhaps affect a swing state or two. 

Before we render our final predictions at BTRTN, a few notes:

·       These are our final predictions, but we reserve the right to read a final straggler poll or two tomorrow morning and amend as necessary.  Failure to do so in 2012 cost us Florida, the only state we missed in an otherwise unblemished presidential prediction.

·        If any reader wants our handy, dandy semi-famous spreadsheets that allow you to easily track Election Night outcomes for each of the presidential, Senate, House and Governor races (and see how we are doing against our predictions), just email us at tom@obameter2012.com and we will send them along to you.  Our past users swear by them!

On to the predictions, and here are the headlines:

·       Hillary Clinton will become our 45^th President, and our first woman president, beating Donald Trump comfortably with a 322-216 electoral vote margin.  We have her winning the popular vote 49.3% to 46.8%, with Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullin picking off 3.8% of the vote.

·        Clinton will get to work with a Democratic majority in the Senate, as the Dems (barely) take back the Senate 50/50, with new Vice President Tim Kaine wielding the gavel in the event of ties, and with Chuck Schumer, Clinton’s one-time colleague as Senators from New York, as Senate Majority Leader.  But we won’t know the final Senate outcome for quite some time, as it will all come down to a few races that are extraordinarily close.

·        Clinton will have to deal with a GOP-controlled House, as the Dems pick up a net of only 5 seats, very modestly chipping away at a still formidable GOP advantage of 242-193, short of gaining control by 25 seats.  Again, the exact number will take days to sort out, as invariably some House races may take days to settle, and some may even end up with recounts or in courts.

·        And the GOP will continue to dominate the state houses; by winning 4 of the 12 gubernatorial races they will hold their 32-17 advantage (with one independent) in governors.

For new readers, here is a summary of BTRTN's track record in national elections over the years.  We believe our record stands with anyone’s!

Election	2008	2010	2012	2014	Total	Total %
Presidential (states)	48/50	n/a	49/50	n/a	97/100	97.0%
Senate	35/35	33/36	31/33	32/36	131/140	93.6%
House	n/a	420/435	416/435	425/435	1261/1305	96.6%
Governors	n/a	n/a	n/a	31/36	31/36	86.1%
TOTAL						96.1%

This will be a closer race than in 2012.  We see 11 races that will be decided by 5 points or less versus 6 in 2012.  Obama ended up beating Romney by 3.9 percentage points in the popular vote.  We have Clinton beating Trump by a mere 2.5 points.

But for those of you who still have doubts that Clinton will win, we offer you these “macro” stats.  Of 94 national polls taken since September 1, Clinton has led in 77, Trump in 11, with 7 ties.  And if you take the LA Times tracking poll out, which is a notoriously self-evident outlier, the numbers are even more one-sided at 77-2-5.

And if you are curious/nervous about the same figures post-Comey’s-First-Letter, there have been 14 polls since October 28 and Clinton is 12-1-1 in them, with the one losing poll being, of course, by the LA Times.  We are fond of saying that “national polls don’t matter,” but the fact is, such an overwhelming lead in national polls is not consistent with widespread swing state defeats.

THE PREDICTIONS

President

Hillary Clinton will hold onto the four “Toss-up D” states that she needed to push over the 270 barrier and provide a cushion had she lost some of them:  Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire, all of which had margins of three points or less in the final days.  A combination of Comey First Letter damage running its course as last week wore on; the Comey Second Letter announcement on Sunday; and the massive Clinton ground game, ad blitz and surrogate brigade, will combine to build a different kind of wall that will keep Donald Trump out of the White House.

Trump, for his part, will manage to hold onto Ohio in a late-night squeaker, plus states he should have won easily, Georgia, Arizona and Utah, and he will manage to pick-off Obama’s Iowa.

Clinton will be put over the top at 11:35 PM when CNN calls Michigan in her favor.  (We have a very sloppy method of predicting this timing so don’t be surprised if we are well off!)

Here is how every state will go….who will win, by what margin, and at what time it will be “called” by CNN.  (We have no prediction for Trump’s concession speech – whether he does one and, if so, at what time -- or what he will say.) 

				BTRTN PREDICTION
				Popular Vote %			Electoral Votes		Time race called (EST)
				Clinton	Trump	Margin	Clinton	Trump
States	2016 Electoral Votes	Close Races to Watch	Polls Close (Latest)	49.3%	46.8%	2.5%	322	213
Indiana	11		7:00	41%	51%	-10%		11	7:00
Kentucky	8		7:00	40%	58%	-18%		8	7:00
Vermont	3		7:00	62%	32%	30%	3		7:00
W. Virginia	5		7:30	33%	63%	-30%		5	7:30
Alabama	9		8:00	38%	58%	-20%		9	8:00
Connecticut	7		8:00	54%	42%	12%	7		8:00
DC	3		8:00	89%	10%	79%	3		8:00
Delaware	3		8:00	56%	39%	17%	3		8:00
Illinois	20		8:00	56%	40%	16%	20		8:00
Maryland	10		8:00	62%	36%	26%	10		8:00
Massachusetts	11		8:00	61%	33%	28%	11		8:00
Mississippi	6		8:00	43%	55%	-12%		6	8:00
Oklahoma	7		8:00	35%	60%	-25%		7	8:00
Rhode Island	4		8:00	55%	41%	14%	4		8:00
Tennessee	11		8:00	42%	54%	-12%		11	8:00
Arkansas	6		8:30	39%	59%	-20%		6	8:30
Kansas	6		9:00	40%	56%	-16%		6	9:00
Louisiana	8		9:00	42%	56%	-14%		8	9:00
N. Dakota	3		9:00	35%	59%	-24%		3	9:00
Nebraska	5		9:00	37%	59%	-22%		5	9:00
New Mexico	5		9:00	48%	40%	8%	5		9:00
New York	29		9:00	58%	37%	21%	29		9:00
S. Dakota	3		9:00	38%	57%	-19%		3	9:00
Wyoming	3		9:00	28%	65%	-37%		3	9:00
Texas	38		9:00	43%	53%	-10%		38	9:00
Maine	4		8:00	52%	45%	7%	3	1	9:15
Wisconsin	10		9:00	53%	45%	8%	10		9:15
New Jersey	14		8:00	55%	43%	12%	14		9:25
S. Carolina	9		7:00	45%	51%	-6%		9	9:40
Montana	3		10:00	39%	53%	-14%		3	10:00
Pennsylvania	20		8:00	51%	47%	4%	20		10:05
New Hampshire	4		8:00	50%	46%	4%	4		10:10
Missouri	10		8:00	43%	53%	-10%		10	10:20
Georgia	16		7:00	47%	49%	-2%		16	10:30
Minnesota	10		9:00	52%	43%	9%	10		10:35
Virginia	13		7:00	51%	46%	5%	13		10:45
Utah	6		10:00	26%	38%	-12%		6	10:50
California	55		11:00	60%	38%	22%	55		11:00
Hawaii	4		11:00	58%	36%	22%	4		11:00
Idaho	4		11:00	37%	57%	-20%		4	11:00
Washington	12		11:00	56%	42%	14%	12		11:00
N. Carolina	15		7:30	49%	48%	1%	15		11:05
Iowa	6		10:00	46%	51%	-5%		6	11:20
Oregon	7		11:00	53%	43%	10%	7		11:25
Michigan	16		8:00	50%	47%	3%	16		11:35
Arizona	11		9:00	45%	49%	-4%		11	11:45
Florida	29		8:00	50.5%	49.0%	1.5%	29		12:15
Ohio	18		7:30	48%	49%	-1%		18	12:55
Colorado	9		9:00	48%	45%	3%	9		13:15
Nevada	6		10:00	49.5%	48.5%	1.0%	6		14:25
Alaska	3		13:00	42%	50%	-8%		3	15:15

Senate

Even we have to admit that control of the Senate is almost impossible to predict.  There are six races that are Toss-ups now, each within a 2-point or less margin.  New Hampshire is impossibly tight, and Nevada, Missouri and Pennsylvania are only slightly more definitively tilting one way or the other.  Indiana and Missouri offer further clues still – but all six are classic Toss-ups.

BTRTN calls New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania in the Dem camp, and those wins will be just enough to eke out 50 states and, with the Clinton win, give the Dems control of the Senate.  It won’t happen early.  Make plenty of coffee and bring snacks to await this outcome.

						BTRTN PREDICTION
						Dem	GOP
State	Inc. Party	Dem	GOP	Poll Margin as of 11/7	BTRTN         Rating as of 11/7	50	50
Not running						36	30
California	D	Harris	Sanchez (D)		Solid D	1
New York	D	Schumer	Long		Solid D	1
Maryland	D	Van Hollen	Szeliga		Solid D	1
Hawaii	D	Schatz	Carroll		Solid D	1
Oregon	D	Wyden	Callaghan		Solid D	1
Vermont	D	Leahy	Milne		Solid D	1
Connecticut	D	Blumenthal	Carter		Solid D	1
Washington	D	Murray	Vance		Solid D	1
Colorado	D	Bennet	Glenn		Solid D	1
Illinois	R	Duckworth	Kirk		Solid D	1
Wisconsin	R	Feingold	Johnson	D + 2	Toss-up D	1
Pennsylvania	R	McGinty	Toomey	D + 2	Toss-up D	1
Nevada	D	Cortez Masto	Heck	D + 2	Toss-up D	1
New Hamp.	R	Hassan	Ayotte	D + 0	Toss-up D	1
Missouri	R	Kander	Blunt	R + 0	Toss-up R		1
N. Carolina	R	Ross	Burr	R + 1	Toss-up R		1
Indiana	R	Bayh	Young	R + 4	Lean R		1
Florida	R	Murphy	Rubio		Solid R		1
Kentucky	R	Gray	Paul		Solid R		1
Ohio	R	Strickland	Portman		Solid R		1
Arkansas	R	Eldridge	Boozman		Solid R		1
Iowa	R	Judge	Grassley		Solid R		1
Georgia	R	Barksdale	Isakson		Solid R		1
Kansas	R	Wiesner	Moran		Solid R		1
S. Carolina	R	Dixon	Scott		Solid R		1
Arizona	R	Kirkpatrick	McCain		Solid R		1
Utah	R	Snow	Lee		Solid R		1
N. Dakota	R	Grassheim	Hoeven		Solid R		1
Oklahoma	R	Workman	Lankford		Solid R		1
S. Dakota	R	Williams	Thune		Solid R		1
Alabama	R	Crumpton	Shelby		Solid R		1
Alaska	R	Metcalfe	Murkowski		Solid R		1
Idaho	R	Sturgill	Crapo		Solid R		1
Louisiana	R	24 cand.'s	Dec runoff		Solid R		1

House

The Dems will fall well short of a "wave" to regain control, picking up only five seats, perhaps the true casualty of the Comey escapade.  The Dems might have picked up 15-20 had it not been for the downballot fall-out from the first letter.

Below are listed just the 49 races that we consider competitive.

				BTRTN PREDICTION
				Proj. Dem	Proj. GOP
State	Dist.	Incumbent (188 D- 237 R)	BTRTN         Rating as of 11/7	193	242
188 D - 247 R
New York	3	D	Likely D	1
California	24	D	Lean D	1
California	7	D	Lean D	1
Florida	13	R	Lean D	1
Nevada	4	R	Lean D	1
New Hampshire	1	R	Lean D	1
Arizona	1	D	Lean D	1
Minnesota	2	R	Toss-up D	1
Minnesota	8	D	Toss-up D	1
Nebraska	2	D	Toss-up D	1
Iowa	1	R	Toss-up D	1
Nevada	3	R	Toss-up R		1
New Jersey	5	R	Toss-up R		1
Florida	18	D	Toss-up R		1
Illinois	10	R	Toss-up R		1
Texas	23	R	Toss-up R		1
Florida	26	R	Toss-up R		1
Maine	2	R	Toss-up R		1
New York	19	R	Toss-up R		1
New York	22	R	Toss-up R		1
Pennsylvania	8	R	Toss-up R		1
California	49	R	Toss-up R		1
Colorado	6	R	Toss-up R		1
Virginia	10	R	Toss-up R		1
Florida	7	R	Toss-up R		1
California	10	R	Toss-up R		1
Michigan	1	R	Toss-up R		1
New York	1	R	Toss-up R		1
Kansas	3	R	Toss-up R		1
California	25	R	Toss-up R		1
Iowa	3	R	Lean R		1
New York	24	R	Lean R		1
Utah	4	R	Lean R		1
Michigan	7	R	Lean R		1
Minnesota	3	R	Lean R		1
Wisconsin	8	R	Lean R		1
California	21	R	Lean R		1
Indiana	9	R	Lean R		1
Pennsylvania	16	R	Likely R		1
Virginia	5	R	Likely R		1
Alaksa	1	R	Likely R		1
Arizona	2	R	Likely R		1
Colorado	3	R	Likely R		1
Michigan	8	R	Likely R		1
Montana	1	R	Likely R		1
New York	23	R	Likely R		1
Illinois	12	R	Likely R		1
Indiana	2	R	Likely R		1
New York	21	R	Likely R		1

Governors

This is a bit of an off-year for State Houses, with only 12 races in total.  And despite the fact that the Dems have only 18 Governors overall, there was little chance for change, since 8 of them were up for reelection, versus only 4 of the 31 Republicans governors (there is one Independent Governor, in Alaska, and he is not up for reelection). 

With such a stacked deck, we see the GOP holding serve, continuing to hold 31 Governorships to 18 for the Dems. 

The big action here will be in 2018, when there will be 36 state houses on the line – heading into the 2020 census which will guide congressional redistricting, and the next round of gerrymandering games.  Those who control state houses and legislatures dictate those terms, with huge national implications.

						BTRTN PREDICTION
						Proj. Dem	Proj. GOP
State	Inc. Party	GOP	GOP	Poll Margin as of 11/7	BTRTN         Rating as of 11/7	8	4
Delaware	D	Carney	Bonini		Solid D	1
Oregon	D	Brown	Pierce		Solid D	1
Washington	D	Inslee	Bryant		Solid D	1
New Hamp.	D	Sununu	Ostern	D + 11	Lean D	1
Indiana	R	Gregg	Holcomb	D + 4	Lean D	1
N. Carolina	R	Cooper	McCrory	D + 2	Toss-up D	1
Missouri	D	Koster	Greitens	D + 2	Toss-up D	1
Montana	D	Bullock	Gianforte	D + 1	Toss-up D	1
Vermont	D	Minter	Scott	R + 2	Toss-up R		1
W. Virginia	D	Justice	Cole	R + 6	Lean R		1
N. Dakota	R	Nelson	Burgum		Solid R		1
Utah	R	Weinholtz	Herbert		Solid R		1

There you go…our predictions for all 538 races (55 separate presidential electoral vote races including the 50 states, the District of Columbia and two congressional districts in each of Maine and Nebraska; 36 Senate races; 12 Governors and all 435 House seats) that will dictate the state of our world for the next decade or more.  But that future could hang on just one of them, whether it is Florida or North Carolina or Michigan or the tiny second Congressional District in Maine, and that one race could be decided in the wee hours of the night, or even later.  Get out to vote tomorrow, make some calls, and  then fasten your seat belts for an historic night.