Tom with the BTRTN monthly update. The numbers say this was Trump's best month yet, but that is hard to fathom.
North Korea successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. The efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare
died a new death, and this time for good.
The United States failed to support adequately Puerto Rico in the
aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Jared
Kushner and other White House officials were discovered to have created private
email accounts to conduct government business after the election. Trump’s candidate of choice in the Alabama
Senate run-off election, Luther Strange, for whom he personally campaigned, was
thrashed. Robert Mueller’s investigation
heated up considerably and is now clearly focused on Trump himself. And Secretary of Health Human Services Tom
Price was forced to resign after proving himself to be the Master of the Swamp
with profligate spending of taxpayer money on private jets.
And this was a good month
for Donald Trump.
How so, you may ask?
Quite simply, for the first time, Trump managed to achieve an increase in his approval rating, after seven months of steady declines; it edged back
up to 40%, matching June and July levels, after dipping to 38% in a hideous
August. Essentially, Trump received
decent marks for his performance in response to Hurricanes Harvey (in Texas)
and Irma (Florida), and also for his budget/debt ceiling/Harvey funding deal
with the devil – er, Democrats. This is what passes for “wins” in Trumpworld
these days, and they gave him the approval bump.
Donald Trump changed tactics in September, abandoning a reflexive hard-right ideology in exchange for expediency. Whether this was a true strategic shift or a whim of the moment remains to be seen.
The new pattern started with his casual dumping of Mitch McConnell and
Paul Ryan in the highly anticipated September budget/debt ceiling battles. His solution, rather than back McConnell to fight tooth and
nail for every square inch of turf, was to accept the Democrats’ first offer,
to essentially kick the can down the road until December with no strings
attached. His motivation was almost
certainly to get an easy win rather than bank on McConnell again and risk
another loss. Trump was giddy over the
positive coverage he received for reaching across the aisle, even though he put
himself in a far weaker negotiating position three months hence when that deal
expires, infuriating mainstream and conservative Republicans alike.
 |
| Chuck and Nancy can hardly contain their glee |
Trump has thus begun careening rather wildly along the
ideological spectrum: tough talk, including race-baiting, to keep the base
happy (by attacking NFL and NBA players and repeating his Charlottesville comments),
backing Luther Strange in the Alabama race to help the “mainstream” McConnell,
and cutting deals with “Chuck and Nancy.”
Thus far, the latter actions have not cost him with rank and file right-wingers,
although leading conservatives, including Ann Coulter (“at this point, who DOESN”T
want Trump impeached?”) are aghast.
Whether Trump can continue to change dance partners so cavalierly without
penalty remains to be seen, but in September it appears to have been a winning
strategy.
“Careening” is also a reasonable word to describe his
foreign policy, goading Kim Jong-Un with personal insults while the world holds
its breath in the hope that one of these two madmen does not tire of words and instead
exercise an itchy trigger finger.
Trump’s inflammatory words in his first UN speech were hardly calculated
to defuse a highly volatile situation, and did little to reassure anyone that
he had a handle on how to manage the crisis.
But while the month represented improvement, for Trump,
albeit modest, it ended with a terrible week.
(How many times have we read that Trump endured a “terrible week”?). There was the NFL/national anthem flap, which
led to charges that Trump was more focused on the NFL than the plight of Puerto
Rico; the death knell for Trumpcare, which was, of course, the rallying promise
for the GOP in countless elections over the past seven years; the defeat of
Luther Strange in Alabama, which exposed Trump’s inability to translate his
popularity into election night might; then the growing outcry over the laggard
response in Puerto Rico; and finally the discovery that Secretary Tom Price has
spent over $1 million taxpayer dollars on private jets, leading to his swift
resignation. Trump then took on a fight
he cannot win, with the Mayor of San Juan, in which Trump declared that Puerto
Rico officials “want everything to be done for them.”
It’s hard to imagine a more callous comment. The hits keep coming, and we’ll see where
Trump’s approval rating goes from here.
The significance of the Alabama election should not be lost
in the wake of the other flaps and disasters.
We might very well see more Roy Moores coming forward to challenge mainstream
GOP incumbents in the primaries next year, emboldened by Moore’s victory
(particularly if he wins in December).
This sets up the potential for the “Christine O’Connell Phenomenon,” in
which the GOP loses a sure seat by nominating a hard-right buffoon instead of
an eminently electable mainstreamer. (O’Connell
defeated veteran GOP Congressman Mike Castle, who was favored to take back the
seat, in the 2010 Delaware Senate primary, and promptly lost the general
election to Democrat Chris Coons.) Of course, Steve Bannon would argue that
2016 changed all that, as we elected the biggest buffoon of them all for the
highest office of them all (perhaps Bannon might not put it quite that way;
then again, perhaps he would.)
Going forward, Trump’s legislative hopes are now pinned
entirely on tax reform, which, if successful, would be the first such effort in
31 years. It is widely believed that tax
reform is far trickier than health care, and ominous clouds are already
forming. Just as a sampler, Republicans
in states with high state taxes, such as New York, are already rebelling
against the notion of eliminating the deduction of state taxes.
And thus the key to the GOP success in the midterms –
defined as holding onto both Houses -- rests on shaky pillars: passing some
form of tax reform, keeping North Korea from exploding, maintaining the healthy
economy they inherited from Obama and managing other crises that will surely
emerge. This is not a winning hand.
THE NUMBERS
As stated, Trump ended a
seven-month streak of ever-worsening approval ratings, though he is still in
abysmal shape with -15 net approval.
These continue to be ominous numbers for the midterms and for reelection
purposes, historically low.
TRUMP APPROVAL RATING
|
|||||||||
Jan
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
|
Approve
|
46
|
46
|
43
|
43
|
42
|
40
|
40
|
38
|
40
|
Disapprove
|
46
|
50
|
52
|
52
|
54
|
56
|
56
|
57
|
55
|
Margin
|
0
|
-4
|
-8
|
-9
|
-12
|
-16
|
-16
|
-19
|
-15
|
As we said last month, Trump’s predecessors who won
re-election had far higher approval ratings just prior to their
re-elections: Reagan (58%), Clinton
(54%), George W. Bush (48%) and Obama (50%), while the two who failed to gain a
second term were exactly in Trump’s current range: Carter (37%) and George H.W.
Bush (34%). Trump has a ways to go to get
there, assuming he escapes Mueller’s worst, but he has squandered his honeymoon, failed to capitalize on GOP control of all three branches of government, and shown little ability to fight
for his legislative priorities and manage disasters when they inevitably arise
(e.g., North Korea and Hurricane Marie).
Thus the catalyst for material improvement is difficult to see.
THE TRUMP-O-METER
The economy continues to be a solid story for Trump, and
one that is surprisingly lost in his own Twitter-feed. While the “Trumpometer” dipped in the last
month from +13 to +12, the current number still means that key economic
indicators are 12% better now, on average, than they were on Inauguration Day,
driven largely by a strong Q2 GDP and a roaring stock market.
TRUMPOMETER
|
End
Clinton 1/20/2001
|
End
Bush 1/20/2009
|
End
Obama 1/20/2017 (Base = 0)
|
Trump 8/31/2017
|
Trump 9/30/2017
|
% Chg. Vs. Inaug. (+ = Better)
|
25
|
-53
|
0
|
13
|
12
|
12%
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
4.2
|
7.8
|
4.7
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
6%
|
Consumer Confidence
|
129
|
38
|
114
|
123
|
120
|
6%
|
Price of Gas
|
1.27
|
1.84
|
2.44
|
2.51
|
2.70
|
-11%
|
Dow Jones
|
10,588
|
8,281
|
19,732
|
21,948
|
22,405
|
14%
|
GDP
|
4.5
|
-6.2
|
2.1
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
48%
|
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