Swing State Pres

Monday, October 8, 2018

BTRTN: Latest House Mid-terms Snapshot -- and How You Can Help Win Specific Races (Even From Out of State)


Tom with the latest BTRTN House Mid-terms Snapshot and a call to action, with helpful links.

The Democrats remain in a very strong position to affect a House takeover in November.  As of this snapshot – not a “prediction,” but rather what would happen if the elections were held today -- BTRTN estimates that the Dems have a 92% chance of claiming the House, and would pick up a whopping 47 seats.  This would indeed amount to a “Blue Wave,” a Trump repudiation of the highest magnitude.  The GOP loss would be in the same neighborhood, roughly, as that experienced by most recent first-term presidents in their mid-terms, including Reagan in 1982 (-26), Clinton in 1994 (-54) and Obama in 2010 (-63).  Both Bushes managed to avoid such a fate due to surges in their personal popularity in the aftermath of the Gulf War (Bush 41 in 1992) and 9/11 (Bush 43 in 2002).

These results are driven in large part by the current state of the generic ballot, which at this point in time favors the Democrats by an astonishing +8 points – up from +5.5 points three weeks ago.  Using our BTRTN proprietary regression model, which has been very accurate in the past, that gap translates into the tsunami seat gain this snapshot reports.

The cautionary note is that, according to the rating services, there are still a large number of “toss-up” races,.  There are, by our count, exactly 100 races “in play” now – the other 335 races are almost certainly going either Solid Dem or Solid GOP.  The races fall as follows:

BTRTN HOUSE RACK-UP

9/20/2018
10/9/2018
DEM TOTAL
233
241
Dem Solid
182
181
Dem Likely
8
9
Dem Lean
13
16
Dem Toss-up
30
35
GOP Toss-up
0
1
GOP Lean
23
11
GOP Likely
28
28
GOP Solid
151
154
GOP TOTAL
202
194

In the last week, much has been made of the impact the Kavanaugh hearings (and his ultimate ascension to the Supreme Court) may have on the mid-terms.  In particular, how his nomination process has “united” the GOP and “energized” the rank-and-file, presumably a motivating factor in enhancing GOP turnout.  We have our doubts.  The Democratic energy lead over the GOP was overwhelming, and polls that purport to measure “enthusiasm” (a squishy concept at best) show only a narrowing of that gap, not a reversal.

And, we suspect that the Kavanaugh fight may have ended a tad too soon to have a material impact on swing elections.  There is about a month to go, and Donald Trump alone may set off countless headlines between now and then, in addition to the potential for October surprises, seismic world events, a final GDP and jobs report before Election Day, and other influences.

The chart below summarizes each of the 100 races in play.  You will note that the GOP is the incumbent in a remarkable 84 of these races, which certainly underlines how much they have to lose.  The Democrats have only to win a net of +23 to gain control of the House.  You can also see our rating for each race.

We are often asked, “I want to help, but my district is solid Dem, so what can I do to help win races in other states?”  We found a list of links to Democratic candidates who are seeking out-of-state volunteers to do phone banking and other remote efforts, and have merged that list with ours below.  Those opportunities are not available in every race, but there are many who are eagerly requesting such help.  We have highlighted in BLUE (in the BTRTN Rating column) the races that are both very close and there is an out-of-state volunteer link.  Pick any race where you see a link, follow the link and get involved! 

No one should be complacent about the Dems’ lead right now.  The enthusiasm will only work if it translates into turnout.   Get at it, now!  Only 28 days to go!

BTRTN 2018 HOUSE ELECTION SCORECARD
State/ Dist
Incmb Party
BTRTN  Rating 10/9/18
Link to Activity/Information (mostly phone banking) that can be done remotely
194 D -    236 R
14 D/ 86 R


AZ 1
D
D Likely

AZ 2
R
D Lean

AZ 6
R
R Likely

AZ 8
R
R Likely

ARK 2
R
R Lean

CAL 4
R
R Likely

CAL 7
D
D Likely

CAL 10
R
D TU
CAL 21
R
R Likely

CAL 25
R
D TU
CAL 39
R
D TU

CAL 45
R
D TU

CAL 48
R
D TU
CAL 49
R
D Lean
CAL 50
R
R Lean

COL 3
R
R Likely



COL 6
R
D Lean



FL 6
R
R Likely

FL 7
D
D Likely
FL 15
R
R Likely

FL 16
R
R Lean



FL 18
R
R Likely

FL 25
R
R Likely



FL 26
R
D TU

FL 27
R
D Lean

GA 6
R
R Lean

GA 7
R
R Likely

ILL 6
R
D TU
ILL 12
R
D TU

ILL 13
R
R Lean
ILL 14
R
R Lean
IND 2
R
R Likely

IND 9
R
R Likely

IA 1
R
D Lean
IA 3
R
D TU

IA 4
R
R Likely

KS 2
R
D TU
KS 3
R
D TU
KY 6
R
D TU
ME 2
R
D TU

MCH 1
R
R Likely

MCH 6
R
R Likely

MCH 7
R
R Likely



MCH 8
R
D TU
MCH 11
R
D Lean

MIN 1
D
D TU



MIN 2
R
D Lean
MIN 3
R
D Lean
MIN 7
D
D Likely

MIN 8
D
D TU

MON 1
R
R Likely

NE 2
R
R Lean

NEV 3
D
D Lean
NEV 4
D
D Lean
NH 1
D
D Lean

NJ 2
R
D Likely
NJ 3
R
D TU






NJ 5
D
D Likely

NJ 7
R
D TU

NJ 11
R
D Lean
NM 2
R
D TU
NY 1
R
R Likely

NY 11
R
R Likely
NY 19
R
D TU
NY 22
R
D TU
NY 24
R
R Likely
NY 27
R
R Lean

NC 2
R
D TU

NC 8
R
R Likely

NC 9
R
D Lean
NC 13
R
D TU
OH 1
R
R TU



OH 12
R
D TU

OH 14
R
R Likely

OKL 5
R
R Likely

PA 1
D
D TU

PA 5
Vac
D Likely

PA 6
R
D Likely

PA 7
R
D Lean

PA 8
R
D Likely

PA 10
R
D TU
PA 16
R
R Likely
PA 17
D
D Lean
SC 1
R
R Likely

TX 7
R
D TU

TX 21
R
R Likely

TX 23
R
D TU
TX 31
R
R Likely
TX 32
R
D TU

UT 4
R
D TU

VA 2
R
D TU

VA 5
R
R Lean
VA 7
R
D TU

VA 10
R
D Lean
WA 3
R
R Lean

WA 5
R
D TU

WA 8
R
D TU
WV 3
R
D TU

WIS 1
R
R Lean
WIS 6
R
R Likely




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