The
Democrats remain in a very strong position to affect a House takeover in
November. As of this snapshot – not a “prediction,”
but rather what would happen if the elections were held today -- BTRTN
estimates that the Dems have a 92% chance of claiming the House, and would pick
up a whopping 47 seats. This would
indeed amount to a “Blue Wave,” a Trump repudiation of the highest
magnitude. The GOP loss would be in the
same neighborhood, roughly, as that experienced by most recent first-term presidents
in their mid-terms, including Reagan in 1982 (-26), Clinton in 1994 (-54) and
Obama in 2010 (-63). Both Bushes managed
to avoid such a fate due to surges in their personal popularity in the
aftermath of the Gulf War (Bush 41 in 1992) and 9/11 (Bush 43 in 2002).
These
results are driven in large part by the current state of the generic ballot,
which at this point in time favors the Democrats by an astonishing +8 points –
up from +5.5 points three weeks ago.
Using our BTRTN proprietary regression model, which has been very
accurate in the past, that gap translates into the tsunami seat gain this
snapshot reports.
The
cautionary note is that, according to the rating services, there are still a
large number of “toss-up” races,. There
are, by our count, exactly 100 races “in play” now – the other 335 races are
almost certainly going either Solid Dem or Solid GOP. The races fall as follows:
BTRTN HOUSE RACK-UP
|
||
9/20/2018
|
10/9/2018
|
|
DEM TOTAL
|
233
|
241
|
Dem Solid
|
182
|
181
|
Dem Likely
|
8
|
9
|
Dem Lean
|
13
|
16
|
Dem Toss-up
|
30
|
35
|
GOP Toss-up
|
0
|
1
|
GOP Lean
|
23
|
11
|
GOP Likely
|
28
|
28
|
GOP Solid
|
151
|
154
|
GOP TOTAL
|
202
|
194
|
In
the last week, much has been made of the impact the Kavanaugh hearings (and his
ultimate ascension to the Supreme Court) may have on the mid-terms. In particular, how his nomination process has
“united” the GOP and “energized” the rank-and-file, presumably a motivating
factor in enhancing GOP turnout. We have
our doubts. The Democratic energy lead
over the GOP was overwhelming, and polls that purport to measure “enthusiasm”
(a squishy concept at best) show only a narrowing of that gap, not a reversal.
And,
we suspect that the Kavanaugh fight may have ended a tad too soon to
have a material impact on swing elections.
There is about a month to go, and Donald Trump alone may set off
countless headlines between now and then, in addition to the potential for October
surprises, seismic world events, a final GDP and jobs report before Election
Day, and other influences.
The
chart below summarizes each of the 100 races in play. You will note that the GOP is the incumbent
in a remarkable 84 of these races, which certainly underlines how much they
have to lose. The Democrats have only to
win a net of +23 to gain control of the House.
You can also see our rating for each race.
We
are often asked, “I want to help, but my district is solid Dem, so what can I
do to help win races in other states?”
We found a list of links to Democratic candidates who are seeking
out-of-state volunteers to do phone banking and other remote efforts, and have
merged that list with ours below. Those
opportunities are not available in every race, but there are many who are
eagerly requesting such help. We have
highlighted in BLUE (in
the BTRTN Rating column) the races that are both very close and there is an
out-of-state volunteer link. Pick any race where you see a link, follow the link and get involved!
No
one should be complacent about the Dems’ lead right now. The enthusiasm will only work if it
translates into turnout. Get at it,
now! Only 28 days to go!
BTRTN 2018 HOUSE ELECTION SCORECARD
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|||
State/ Dist
|
Incmb Party
|
BTRTN Rating 10/9/18
|
Link to Activity/Information (mostly phone banking) that can be
done remotely
|
194 D - 236 R
|
14 D/ 86 R
|
||
AZ 1
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
AZ 2
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
AZ 6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
AZ 8
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
ARK 2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
CAL 4
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
CAL 7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
CAL 10
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
CAL 21
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
CAL 25
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
CAL 39
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
CAL 45
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
CAL 48
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
CAL 49
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
CAL 50
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
COL 3
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
COL 6
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
FL 6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
FL 7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
FL 15
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
FL 16
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
FL 18
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
FL 25
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
FL 26
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
FL 27
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
GA 6
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
GA 7
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
ILL 6
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
ILL 12
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
ILL 13
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
ILL 14
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
IND 2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
IND 9
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
IA 1
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
IA 3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
IA 4
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
KS 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
KS 3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
KY 6
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
ME 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
MCH 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
MCH 6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
MCH 7
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
MCH 8
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
MCH 11
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
MIN 1
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
MIN 2
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
MIN 3
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
MIN 7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
MIN 8
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
MON 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
NE 2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
NEV 3
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
NEV 4
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
NH 1
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
NJ 2
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
NJ 3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
NJ 5
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
NJ 7
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
NJ 11
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
NM 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
NY 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
NY 11
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
NY 19
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
NY 22
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
NY 24
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
NY 27
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
NC 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
NC 8
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
NC 9
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
NC 13
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
OH 1
|
R
|
R TU
|
|
OH 12
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
OH 14
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
OKL 5
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
PA 1
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
PA 5
|
Vac
|
D Likely
|
|
PA 6
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
PA 7
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
PA 8
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
PA 10
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
PA 16
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
PA 17
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
SC 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
TX 7
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
TX 21
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
TX 23
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
TX 31
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
TX 32
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
UT 4
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
VA 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
VA 5
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
VA 7
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
VA 10
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
WA 3
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
WA 5
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
WA 8
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
WV 3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
WIS 1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
WIS 6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
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