There
is a narrative you have been hearing like a rising drumbeat over the past week,
and it can be summarized from the opening sentence of an Associated Press
article yesterday:
“In the closing stretch
of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic
wave. It’s whether there will be a wave at all.”
This
theme is likely afoot for several reasons:
1) it’s an excellent media storyline, injecting some excitement by
casting doubt on the likely outcome; 2) it offers an opportunity for
journalists (and pollsters and poll aggregators) to cover their behinds so as
not to commit another fiasco as in 2016; and 3) it is a motivator (for partisan
Dems) to ensure that there is no complacency, to guard against squandering that massive Dem "enthusiasm" down the stretch.
The
facts themselves do not really support such a dire view of the state of
play. As of this “snapshot” – if the
election were held today – the BTRTN odds of the Democrats winning the House
and the Senate are as follows:
House
|
Senate
|
81%
|
7%
|
Yes,
the odds of a Dem House takeover were in the 90% range last week, so the GOP
has made some modest progress. But, as
of now, it remains exceedingly likely that the Democrats will take the
House. It also remains true that there
is little chance that the Dems will take the Senate.
Now
much can indeed happen in these final 10 days until Election Day. Donald Trump is campaigning furiously, lying
at a confounding rate as he seeks to drive the GOP base into a voting
frenzy. A migrant caravan 1,000 miles
away has wandered into the election mayhem, mythologized into an ISIS-infested
brigade. A massive tax cut for the
middle class is supposedly working its way through Congress, even though
Congress is not in session and no member has heard of it. Pipe bombs are showing up in the mailboxes of
the leading liberal lights, including two former Presidents. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped
nearly 2,000 points, or 7%, in the last 22 days. These matters, and other “surprises” ahead,
could certainly change the landscape considerably.
For
now, we will stick to the facts, as we know them this instant. Today we will focus on the House, with a
complete Senate update coming next week.
But first we will say a few brief words about the state of the Senate
races to give some perspective to those 7% odds of Dem Senate control.
The
Dems currently hold 49 Senate seats, and need 51 seats to have a majority and
hand the Leader gavel to Chuck Schumer.
As of now, you can count 44 of those 51 seats pretty easily – 23 that
are not up for election, and 21 races that are “Solid” for the Dems. That math means they need to win seven other
races to reach the magic 51 seats. But
only eight races are still in play, so they need to win seven of
those eight. Those eight include
four seats they currently hold, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and Florida (which they appear to
be leading by very slim margins) and four that the GOP holds, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee or Texas, all races in which
the Dems are arguably trailing. It would
take a miracle to win seven of those eight races.
And
with that, on to the House.
THE HOUSE
We
are now marrying our “top down” BTRTN proprietary regression model, which
predicts the number of seats that will change hands based largely on the highly
predictive generic ballot, with race-by-race polling and other factors.
And
at this juncture, we see the Dems picking up +38 seats when all is said and
done. Our rating chart is as follows:
BTRTN HOUSE RACK-UP
|
||
10/9/2018
|
10/26/2018
|
|
DEM TOTAL
|
241
|
232
|
Dem Solid
|
181
|
185
|
Dem Likely
|
9
|
17
|
Dem Lean
|
16
|
2
|
Dem Toss-up
|
35
|
28
|
GOP Toss-up
|
1
|
6
|
GOP Lean
|
11
|
9
|
GOP Likely
|
28
|
26
|
GOP Solid
|
154
|
162
|
GOP TOTAL
|
194
|
203
|
The
GOP has indeed made up some ground in the last month, as the generic ballot –
the single biggest predictor of House outcomes – has narrowed a bit, from a
Democratic lead of +8 points over the GOP to +6.5. And the race-by-race polling, sketchy as it is,
confirms a slightly closer overall race.
But the Democrats remain in control, not only with the generic ballot
edge, but also in fundraising and enthusiasm (despite GOP progress on the
latter two measures).
While
the GOP has some minor degree of momentum, with Election Day so close, it is
difficult to see them overtaking the Dems and somehow holding onto the House.
The
race will hinge on those 34 races that are considered “toss ups” at this
point. The Democrats, assuming they win
all of the “Solid,” “Likely” and “Lean” races (that get them to 204 seats) need
to win only 14 of those 34 races to reach the magic 218. By our analysis – as of today – they are marginally
ahead in most of them and would pick up +38 seats overall, a Trump repudiation by
any standard and worthy of a “wave” designation. Such a GOP loss would be in the same
neighborhood, roughly, as that experienced by most recent first-term presidents
in their mid-terms, including Reagan in 1982 (-26), Clinton in 1994 (-54) and
Obama in 2010 (-63). (Both Bush 41 and
43 managed to avoid such a fate due to surges in their personal popularity in
the aftermath of the Gulf War and 9/11, respectively).
The
chart below summarizes each of the 88 races “in play” – 77 of which are held by
GOP incumbents right now, which certainly underlines how much they have to
lose. The chart includes our current
BTRTN ratings (that link to the chart above), which races represent “flips” if
the trends hold, plus a call to action.
We found a list of links to Democratic candidates who are seeking
out-of-state volunteers to do phone banking and other remote efforts, and have
merged that list with ours below. Those
opportunities are not available in every race, but there are many who are
eagerly requesting such help. Pick a race where you see a link, follow the link and get involved!
No
one should be complacent about the Dems’ lead right now. The enthusiasm will only work if it
translates into turnout. Get at it,
now! Only 10 days to go!
BTRTN 2018 HOUSE ELECTION SCORECARD
|
||||
State/ Dist.
|
Inc. Part
|
BTRTN Rating 10/26
|
Flip
|
Link to Activity/Information (mostly phone banking) that can be
done remotely
|
Current: 194 D - 236 R
|
77 R vs. 11 D
|
|||
ALAS 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
AZ 1
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
AZ 2
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
AZ 8
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
ARK 2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
CAL 4
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
CAL 7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
CAL 10
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
CAL 21
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
CAL 25
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
CAL 39
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
CAL 45
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
CAL 48
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
CAL 49
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
CAL 50
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
COL 3
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
COL 6
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
FL 6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
FL 7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
FL 15
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
FL 16
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
FL 18
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
FL 25
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
FL 26
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
FL 27
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
GA 6
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
GA 7
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
ILL 6
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
ILL 12
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
ILL 13
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
ILL 14
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
IOWA 1
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
IOWA 3
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
KS 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
KS 3
|
R
|
D Lean
|
+ D
|
|
KY 6
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
ME 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
MCH 6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
MCH 7
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
MCH 8
|
R
|
R TU
|
||
MCH 11
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
MIN 1
|
D
|
D TU
|
||
MIN 2
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
MIN 3
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
MIN 7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
MIN 8
|
D
|
R Lean
|
+ R
|
|
MON 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
NE 2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
NE 2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
NEV 3
|
D
|
D Lean
|
||
NEV 4
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
NH 1
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
NJ 3
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NJ 7
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NJ 11
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
NM 2
|
R
|
R TU
|
||
NY 1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
NY 11
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
NY 19
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NY 22
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NY 24
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
NY 27
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NC 2
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NC 9
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
NC 13
|
R
|
R TU
|
||
OH 1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
OH 12
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
OH 14
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
PA 1
|
D
|
D TU
|
||
PA 7
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
PA 8
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
PA 10
|
R
|
R TU
|
||
PA 16
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
PA 17
|
D
|
D Likely
|
||
TX 7
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
TX 21
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
TX 23
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
TX 32
|
R
|
R TU
|
||
UT 4
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
VA 2
|
R
|
R TU
|
||
VA 5
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
VA 7
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
VA 10
|
R
|
D Likely
|
+ D
|
|
WA 3
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
WA 5
|
R
|
R Likely
|
||
WA 8
|
R
|
D TU
|
+ D
|
|
WV 3
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
WIS 1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
||
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