BTRTN Official 2018 Midterms Predictions: Trump Will Be Repudiated in a Great, If Not Perfect, Night for the Dems

Tom with BTRTN’s official word on how Election Night will go.

Note:  If anyone wants our famous BTRTN Election Night Scorecard spreadsheet, so you can easily follow all 506 elections (435 House, 35 Senate and 36 gubernatorial), please email us at borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com and we will send it along.

OUR TRACK RECORD

We’ll start with our credentials.  Why should you pay any attention to BTRTN?  We’ve been forecasting elections since 2008, when we started by getting every state right in the Senate and all but two states in he Obama-McCain presidential race.  Out of more than 2,000 elections since then (now including all presidential, House, Senate and gubernatorial races), we've been right 96% of the time, missing the mark in fewer than 100 of those races.  And we’ve been nearly spot on in forecasting gains and losses in the House, as the chart below illustrates.

Year	Total Elections				House Gains
	Total Races	# Correct	% Correct		BTRTN Prediction	Actual Outcome
2008	91	89	98%		n/a	n/a
2010	471	453	96%		R + 58	R + 63
2012	524	502	96%		D + 4	D + 8
2014	507	488	96%		R + 10	R + 13
2016	537	519	97%		D + 5	D + 6
2017	8	6	75%		n/a	n/a
Total	2138	2057	96%		n/a	n/a

Like others, we got it wrong in the 2016 Presidential election, when Donald Trump overcame the odds (and the polls, in just a few crucial states) to win the presidency, even though he lost the popular vote by 2.1% (which the national pollsters and aggregators got just about right).  But we hold our track record up with anyone, and despite the 2016 fiasco, we have not hedged our bets any more than our models, tempered by our judgment, would have done otherwise.  As you shall see.

THE PREDICTIONS

The chart below summarizes the outcomes.

	House	Senate	Governors
% chance D takeover	78%	6%	n/a
D/R Split	231/204	49/51	25/25
Dem gain	D + 38	No change	D + 9

We foresee:

·         The Dems gain +38 seats, taking control of the House with some breathing room to spare, and coming away with a 231/204 advantage.  The Dems end up winning 22 of the 33 “toss-up” races, but some of these take days before a winner is declared.  By any definition, this represents a giant repudiation to Trump and certainly counts as a “blue wave.”   But keep in mind, those toss-up races are close, and thus there is a 22% chance (1 in 5) the GOP retains the House.

·         The GOP holds onto the Senate and keeps their current 51/49 advantage.  Of the eight races truly in play, the Dems manage to flip both Nevada and Arizona, but the GOP will offset those losses by turning North Dakota and Missouri.  The Democrats hold onto Indiana and Montana, but despite valiant efforts, they lose in single digits in the deep red states of Texas and Tennessee.

·         The Dems pick up a healthy +9 gubernatorial seats, turning a whopping 16/33/1 state house deficit into a 25/25 split, exceptionally marked progress and welcome news on so many fronts, not the least of which is with a census and redistricting battles ahead.

Our final ratings (chart below) underline exactly how crucial these toss-up races are in the outcomes.  In the House, the Dems can’t take control without winning at least 9 of those 33.  In the Senate, not only must the Dems win all six of them, but they need to pick off one of the “leaning GOP” seats (Tennessee or Texas) as well to get to 51 – that’s what makes the odds of a Dem Senate takeover so low.  And in the gubernatorial races, they need to take 6 of the 9 toss-ups to get to a majority, which would be a symbolic turning point.

Understand that “toss-up” does not mean “50/50.”  If the Dems are ahead by a point or two, as they are in many of these races, they are statistically the favorite.  It is just that if the Dems hold a slim lead, within the margin of error, the GOP does have at least a decent statistical chance of winning those races.  But being even slightly ahead in the toss-ups gives the Dems a clear leg up.

What could upset the House applecart, the linchpin of Dem hopes to control Trump and begin a blue turnaround?  It would have to take new shock news tonight to truly make a difference, an epic “November surprise.”  Or perhaps a systemic sampling error.  Or an incredibly larger than expected GOP turnout.  None of this is very likely, and, while anything is possible, we stick by our predictions.

BTRTN FINAL RATINGS: 11/5/2018
HOUSE			SENATE			GOVERNOR
DEM TOTAL	231		DEM TOTAL	49		DEM TOTAL	25
Dem Solid	185		Dem Holdover	23		Dem Holdover	7
Dem Likely	18		Dem Solid	21		Dem Solid	8
Dem Lean	6		Dem Lean	0		Dem Lean	5
Dem Toss-up	22		Dem Toss-up	5		Dem Toss-up	5
GOP Toss-up	11		GOP Toss-up	1		GOP Toss-up	4
GOP Lean	7		GOP Lean	2		GOP Lean	1
GOP Likely	25		GOP Solid	6		GOP Solid	13
GOP Solid	161		GOP Holdover	42		GOP Holdover	7
GOP TOTAL	204		GOP TOTAL	51		GOP TOTAL	25

EVERY RACE

Below is the prediction for each and every Senate and Governor race, and all of the competitive House races.  Keep an eye on the races “in play,” that is, with the outcome at least somewhat in doubt (the “leans”, “likelies” and “toss-ups”).  They are clearly identified in the charts.

THE SENATE

The Dems chances of winning the Senate are now vanishingly small.  We see the range of outcomes as follows:

Dem Seats	% Chance
52	1%
51	5%
50	20%
49	34%
48	27%
47	11%
46	2%

What it really boils down to, is the Dems have to win four races that at this point show less than a 1% margin – Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Indiana – plus win either Texas or Tennessee, which they trail by 5-6 points in the latest polling, a very, very tough hill to climb.

It is excruciating predicting a race where the average polling margin is less than one point and, as stated, we have four of them.  The Dems could end up with anywhere from 47 to 50 seats, and, while none of those likely outcomes gives them control of the Senate, every seat they flip or hold onto makes a huge difference in the GOP’s ability to get the judges they want on the bench.  The GOP still has Lisa Murkowski (who voted against Kavanaugh) to contend with, as well as the (kind of) moderate Susan Collins and the pesky Ben Sasse.  Fifty Dem seats makes the Senate far more difficult for Mitch McConnell to navigate than 47.

At this point we have the Dems holding onto to their 49 seats, the “mode” probability outcome.  Here are all 35 races, sorted from most to least likely Dem win.  Again, pay attention to those highlighted races in the middle of the chart, those that are “in play,” the six toss-ups plus red-leaning Tennessee and Texas.

BTRTN SENATE PREDICTIONS
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Democrat	GOP	Recent Polls Avg	BTRTN Rating
CAL	D	Feinstein	Feinstein	de Leon (D)		D Solid
VER	I	Sanders	Sanders	Paige		D/I Solid
NY	D	Gillebrand	Gillebrand	Farley		D Solid
HAW	D	Hirono	Hirono	Curtis		D Solid
MARY	D	Cardin	Cardin	Campbell		D Solid
RI	D	Whitehouse	Whitehouse	Flanders		D Solid
DEL	D	Carper	Carper	Arlett		D Solid
MASS	D	Warren	Warren	Diehl		D Solid
WASH	D	Cantwell	Cantwell	Hutchison		D Solid
MN	D	Klobuchar	Klobuchar	Newberger		D Solid
CONN	D	Murphy	Murphy	Corey		D Solid
MICH	D	Stabenow	Stabenow	James		D Solid
MAINE	I	King	King (I)	Ringelstein (D), Brakey (R)		I Solid (D)
NMEX	D	Heinrich	Heinrich	Rich		D Solid
VA	D	Kaine	Kaine	Stewart		D Solid
PA	D	Casey	Casey	Barletta		D Solid
WISC	D	Baldwin	Baldwin	Vukmir		D Solid
OHIO	D	Brown	Brown	Renacci		D Solid
WV	D	Manchin	Manchin	Morrisey		D Solid
NJ	D	Menendez	Menendez	Hugin		D Solid
MN (SP)	D	T. Smith	T. Smith	Housley		D Solid
MONT	D	Tester	Tester	Rosendale	D + 5	D TU
FLA	D	Nelson	Nelson	Scott	D + 3	D TU
IND	D	Donnelley	Donnelley	Braun	D + 1	D TU
NEV	R	Heller	Rosen	Heller	D + 1	D TU (Flip)
ARIZ	R	Flake (ret.)	Sinema	McSally	Tie	D TU (Flip)
MO	D	McCaskill	McCaskill	Hawley	R + 1	R TU (Flip)
TEXAS	R	Cruz	O'Rourke	Cruz	R + 6	R Lean
TENN	R	Corker (ret.)	Bredesen	Blackburn	R + 5	R Lean
NDAK	D	Heitkamp	Heitkamp	Cramer		R Solid (Flip)
MS (SP)	R	Hyde-Smith	Espy	Hyde-Smith		R Solid
MS	R	Wicker	Baria	Wicker		R Solid
NEB	R	Fischer	Raybould	Fischer		R Solid
UTAH	R	Hatch (ret.)	Wilson	Romney		R Solid
WYO	R	Barrasso	Trauner	Barrasso		R Solid

THE GOVERNORS

This will be an excellent result for the Democrats; they are almost certain to pick up +4 governorships, most likely +9, with a shot at +13.   There are fully nine “toss-up” races and we have the Dems winning six of them.  That includes Florida and Ohio where they have reasonably strong +4 leads.  There are five races where the margin appears to be one point or less”:  Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas and Nevada.

BTRTN GOVERNOR PREDICTION
State	Inc. Party	Incumbent	Democrat	GOP	Recent Polls Avg	BTRTN Rating
HAW	D	Ige	Ige	Tupola		D Solid
NY	D	Cuomo	Cuomo	Molinaro		D Solid
CAL	D	Brown	Newsom	Cox		D/I Solid
RI	D	Raimando	Raimando	Fung		D Solid
PENN	D	Wolf	Wolf	Wagner		D Solid
ILL	R	Rauner	Pritzker	Rauner		D Solid (Flip)
MINN	D	Dayton	Walz	Johnson		D Solid
MICH	R	Snyder	Whitmer	Scheutte		D Solid (Flip)
MAINE	R	LePage	Mills	Moody	D + 8	D Lean (Flip)
NMEX	R	Martinez	Grisham	Pearce	D + 7	D Lean (Flip)
COL	D	Hickenlooper	Polis	Stapleton	D + 5	D Lean
CONN	D	Molloy	Lamont	Stefanowski	D + 4	D Lean
OR	D	Brown	Brown	Beuhler	D + 4	D Lean
FLA	R	Scott	Gillum	DeSantis	D + 4	D TU (Flip)
OHIO	R	Kasich	Cordray	DeWine	D + 4	D TU (Flip)
WISC	R	Walker	Evers	Walker	D + 2	D TU (Flip)
IOWA	R	Reynolds	Hubbell	Reynolds	D + 1	D TU (Flip)
KAN	R	Colyer	Kelly	Kobach	D + 1	D TU (Flip)
GA	R	Deal	Abrams	Kemp	R + 1	R TU
NEV	R	Sandoval	Sisolak	Laxalt	R + 1	R TU
ALASKA	I	Walker*	Begish	Dunleavy	R + 1	R TU (Flip)
SDAK	R	Daugaard	Sutton	Noem	R + 2	R TU
OKL	R	Fallin	Edmondson	Stitt	R + 7	R Lean
ARI	R	Ducey	Garcia	Ducey		R  Solid
NH	R	Sununu	Kelly	Sununu		R  Solid
VER	R	Scott	Hallquist	Scott		R Solid
SC	R	McMaster	Smith	McMaster		R Solid
TENN	R	Haslam	Dean	Lee		R Solid
MARY	R	Hogan	Jealous	Hogan		R Solid
IDA	R	Otter	Jordan	Little		R Solid
ALAB	R	Ivey	Maddox	Ivey		R Solid
TEX	R	Abbott	Valdez	Abbott		R Solid
NEB	R	Ricketts	Krist	Ricketts		R Solid
ARK	R	Hutchinson	Henderson	Hutchinson		R Solid
MASS	R	Baker	Gonzalez	Baker		R Solid
WYO	R	Mead	Throne	Mead		R Solid
*  Walker is also on the ballot as an Independent, but he is trailing the major party challengers by a wide margin.

THE HOUSE

Here are the 89 House races that are “in play,” including the 33 that are “toss-ups.”  You can see which races are pick-ups for each party, which net to a gain of 38 seats for the Dems (including a few changes in “solid” races not shown). 

BTRTN HOUSE PREDICTIONS
State	Dist.	Incum. Party	Latest Polls	BTRTN Rating 11/2	Dem Net Pickup
		235 R / 193 D			38
Pennsylvania	17	D	D + 12	D Likely
Pennsylvania	8	R	D + 12	D Likely	+ D
California	7	D		D Likely
Minnesota	7	D	D + 7	D Likely
Florida	7	D		D Likely
Arizona	2	R	D + 1	D Likely	+ D
Arizona	1	D		D Likely
New Hampshire	1	D	D + 7	D Likely
California	49	R	D + 7	D Likely	+ D
Iowa	1	R	D + 10	D Likely	+ D
Pennsylvania	7	Vacant	D + 5	D Likely	+ D
Colorado	6	R	D + 9	D Likely	+ D
Minnesota	2	R	D + 8	D Likely	+ D
Minnesota	3	R	D + 5	D Likely	+ D
New Jersey	11	R	D + 8	D Likely	+ D
Virginia	10	R	D + 11	D Likely	+ D
Kansas	3	R	D + 12	D Likely	+ D
Nevada	4	D	D + 2	D Likely
New Jersey	7	R	D + 6	D Lean	+ D
Utah	4	R	D + 7	D Lean	+ D
North Carolina	2	R	D + 9	D Lean	+ D
Florida	27	R	D + 7	D Lean	+ D
Nevada	3	D	D + 2	D Lean
Michigan	11	R	D + 3	D Lean	+ D
Illinois	6	R	D + 2	D TU	+ D
California	10	R	D + 2	D TU	+ D
California	45	R	D + 2	D TU	+ D
Washington	8	R	D + 3	D TU	+ D
California	48	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
New York	19	R	D + 3	D TU	+ D
Texas	32	R	D + 4	D TU	+ D
Illinois	14	R	D + 6	D TU	+ D
Pennsylvania	16	R	D + 4	D TU	+ D
Georgia	6	R	D + 2	D TU	+ D
Minnesota	1	D	D + 2	D TU
Pennsylvania	1	D	D + 2	D TU
Florida	26	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
Virginia	5	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
California	39	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
Iowa	3	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
Maine	2	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
New Jersey	3	R	D + 1	D TU	+ D
California	25	R	D + 2	D TU	+ D
New York	22	R	Tie	D TU	+ D
Kentucky	6	R	Tie	D TU	+ D
Florida	15	R	Tie	D TU	+ D
Texas	7	R	R + 1	R TU
Kansas	2	R	R + 1	R TU
Alaska	1	R	D + 1	R TU
Montana	1	R	Tie	R TU
Michigan	8	R	R + 3	R TU
New Mexico	2	R	R + 2	R TU
Virginia	2	R	R + 3	R TU
Virginia	7	R	R + 1	R TU
Pennsylvania	10	R	R + 1	R TU
North Carolina	9	R	R + 1	R TU
North Carolina	13	R	R + 3	R TU
Illinois	12	R	R + 9	R Lean
Minnesota	8	D	R + 7	R Lean	+ R
Georgia	7	R	R + 6	R Lean
New York	27	R	R + 6	R Lean
Ohio	1	R	R + 9	R Lean
Ohio	12	R		R Lean
Wisconsin	1	R		R Lean
Arizona	8	R		R Likely
Arkansas	2	R	R + 12	R Likely
California	4	R		R Likely
California	21	R		R Likely
California	50	R	R + 3	R Likely
Colorado	3	R		R Likely
Florida	6	Vacant		R Likely
Florida	16	R		R Likely
Florida	18	R		R Likely
Florida	25	R		R Likely
Illinois	13	R	R + 5	R Likely
Michigan	6	R		R Likely
Michigan	7	R		R Likely
Missouri	2	R		R Likely
Nebraska	2	R	R + 9	R Likely
New York	1	R	R + 8	R Likely
New York	11	R	R + 4	R Likely
New York	24	R	R + 14	R Likely
Ohio	14	R		R Likely
Texas	21	R		R Likely
Texas	23	R	R + 15	R Likely
Washington	3	R	R + 7	R Likely
Washington	5	R		R Likely
Iowa	4	R		R Likely
West Virginia	3	Vacant	R + 7	R Likely