Thursday, October 29, 2020

BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: No Loss of Momentum As Yet For Biden and Dems Down the Stretch

Tom with the latest BTRTN “snapshot” on the state of the races. 

This is our last “snapshot” before we make our BTRTN Final Predictions on Monday at 5 PM ET.  (We also reserve the right to look at late-breaking polls on Tuesday, Election Day, and make any revisions we see fit by Tuesday at 5 PM ET).

Not much has changed, and that is news in and of itself.  Hillary Clinton was showing signs of fading at this point in 2016, but Joe Biden has not.  A few Senate races are tightening up but the odds still favor a Democratic takeover.  The Dems will almost surely pick up seats in the House, leaving the GOP with the sole consolation of likely flipping one governor seat.

So, here are the latest BTRTN odds, based on a brand new run of our models.

BTRTN ELECTION DASHBOARD AS OF 10/20

BTRTN Election Odds of Democrats' Winning/Controlling

Presidency

Senate

House

87%

72%

99%

335 Biden/203 Trump

51 DEM / 49 GOP (D+4)

248 DEM/190 GOP (D +15)

These odds have been inching upwards for the Democrats all year (with the exception of the House odds, which have remained at 99% the entire time), reflecting ever-more favorable polls and conditions for the Democrats.  But we’ve shaved a few points off the Senate odds in this last iteration.

CHANGES IN BTRTN ODDS

Date >>>

5/9

5/28

7/1

8/24

9/8

9/15

9/23

10/7

10/18

10/28

Presidency

n/a

73%

82%

81%

79%

81%

82%

83%

87%

87%

Senate Control

59%

59%

59%

62%

65%

65%

67%

71%

74%

72%

House Control

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

And again, we offer our two standard warnings:

WARNING:  No matter how good the numbers look at any given time, the Democrats will not win any election unless they work hard to earn it – registering voters, calling, texting, donating – up to and including Election Day.

WARNING:  Remember, this is a snapshot, not a prediction.  Even with only four days to go, and over 77 million votes already cast, anything can happen between now and when the final votes are counted.

 

THE RACES

The Presidency:  Donald Trump continues on his superspreader tour, in the face of record levels of COVID-19 new cases and growing death tolls.  Joe Biden continues his brilliantly understated campaign, letting Trump scald himself while spreading empathy, experience and warmth in his messaging – and talking about COVID every chance he can get.  And Barack Obama has joined the party, stumping in Pennsylvania and Florida to get out the vote, and he will join Biden in Michigan on Saturday in their first join appearance.

Trump’s odds of winning remain at 1 in 8.  He has to win all the toss-up states – and Biden nominally leads in most of them.  And then Trump needs to pick-off at least one state in which he has trailed the entire campaign by a solid margin.  For that is focused on Biden’s native state, Pennsylvania, to be that state. Biden’s lead in Michigan has swelled to near double digits, and Trump appears to have given up on Wisconsin.  We have moved those latter two races from Lean Biden to Likely Biden.  But we now consider Arizona, where the race is tightening, to be a Biden Toss Up (it had been a Biden Lean).

Trump needs a catalyst to change the race dynamics.  A slew of rallies – a dubious strategy in and of itself, given the absurd COVID optics – will not do it.  The cratering stock market (down 7% in a week) is certainly not helping him.  He needs a true October Surprise, and he needs it fast, because half of American voters have already spoken.  Trump may hope the just-released GDP report might be that catalyst, with its “record growth.”  But Americans are more likely to see through the headline and get to the heart of the matter, which the numbers also show – that the economy remains much worse than pre-pandemic levels.  And that with the surge, whatever resurgence is occurring, will be slowed. 

The Senate:  The Democrats maintain solid leads in target flip races in Arizona, Colorado and Maine.  But they need to flip one more seat to overcome the presumed loss of Alabama and get to the required 50 seats for control, assuming a Biden win.  Their leads in Iowa and North Carolina have narrowed, but between those two and all the other toss-up races, they still appear likely to take control of the Senate.  The dynamics down the stretch – all that Dem donor money, all those calling and texting volunteers, all those cases of COVID-19 – seem to favor last-minute “persuadables” tilting blue down the stretch.

Both Georgia races are of note.  The regular race, between incumbent Republican David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, could result in a run-off if neither candidate achieves 50% of the vote.  And the Georgia special election is a “jungle primary” on November 3, which will also result in a runoff if no one clears the 50% hurdle (far more likely than the regular election).  The Democrat Raphael Warnock leads the primary, but that is because current Senator Kelly Loeffler and challenger Doug Collins are splitting the GOP vote.  But the most recent poll has Warnock tied with the combined Loeffler/Collins vote.  We have moved this to a toss-up. 

The House.  The “generic ballot” continues to show the Dems with a +9 point lead over the GOP, which should translate to a pick-up of roughly 20 seats, enabling the Democrats to further tighten their grip in the House with a huge majority of well over 60 seats. 

The Governors.  There are 11 governor races and only two are competitive.  We expect the GOP to flip Montana and otherwise all incumbent parties will retain control of their state houses. 

Here are all the relevant numbers: 

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS

Head-to-Head

As of 10/7

As of 10/28

Biden

51

51

Trump

43

43

Spread (D - R)

8

9 (rounding)

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Electoral College

As of 10/7

As of 10/28

BIDEN - TOTAL

335

335

Biden - Solid

212

216

Biden - Likely

14

36

Biden- Lean

63

27

Biden - Tossup

46

56

Trump - Tossup

78

78

Trump - Lean

0

0

Trump - Likely

0

0

Trump - Solid

125

125

TRUMP - TOTAL

203

203

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: SWING STATE POLLS

State by State (EV)

Latest Polls

BTRTN Rating

CAL, COL, CT, DC, DEL, HA, ILL, ME, ME 1st, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WAS (216)

N/A

D Solid

Michigan (16)

Biden + 9

D Likely (Flip)

Wisconsin (10)

Biden + 8

D Likely (Flip)

Minnesota (10)

Biden + 7

D Likely

Nebraska 2nd District (1)

Biden + 7

D Lean (Flip)

Nevada (6)

Biden + 6

D Lean

Pennsylvania (20)

Biden + 4

D Lean (Flip)

Maine 2nd District (1)

Biden + 4

D Toss Up (Flip)

Arizona (11)

Biden + 3

D Toss Up (Flip)

Florida (29)

Biden + 1

D Toss Up (Flip)

North Carolina (15)

Biden + 1

D Toss Up (Flip)

Georgia (16)

Biden + 2

R Toss Up

Iowa (6)

Biden + 1

R Toss Up

Ohio (18)

Trump + 1

R Toss Up

Texas (38)

Trump + 2

R Toss Up

ALA, ALASK, ARK, ID, IND, KS, KY, LA, MISSP, MO, MON, NEB, NEB 1ST, NEB 3RD, ND, OKL, SC, SD, TENN, UT, WV, WYO (125)

N/A

R Solid

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES

State (Electoral Votes)

As of 10/7

As of 10/28

Michigan (16)

D Lean (Flip)

D Likely (Flip)

Arizona (11)

D Lean (Flip)

D Toss Up (Flip)

Wisconsin (10)

D Lean (Flip)

D Likely (Flip)

 

 

 

 

 

 

SENATE SNAPSHOT

Senate

As of 10/14

As of 10/28

DEM TOTAL

51 (+4)

51 (+4)

Dem Holdover

35

35

Dem Solid

10

9

Dem Likely

2

3

Dem Lean

4

2

Dem Toss-up

0

2

GOP Toss-up

4

5

GOP Lean

2

1

GOP Likely

3

3

GOP Solid

10

10

GOP Holdover

30

30

GOP TOTAL

49 (-4)

49 (-4)

SENATE SNAPSHOT:  STATE BY STATE

Senate By State

Latest Polls

BTRTN Rating

DE, IL, MASS, NH, NM, NJ, OR, RI, VA

 

D Solid

Colorado

Hickenlooper + 8

D Likely (Flip)

Arizona

Kelly + 6

D Likely (Flip)

Minnesota

Smith + 6

D Likely

Michigan

Peters + 6

D Lean

Maine

Gideon + 4

D Lean (Flip)

N. Carolina

Cunningham + 2

D Toss Up (Flip)

Iowa

Greenfield + 2

D Toss Up (Flip)

Georgia (Reg)

Perdue + 1

R Toss Up

S. Carolina

Graham + 3

R Toss Up

Montana

Daines + 3

R Toss Up

Kansas

Marshall + 4

R Toss Up

Georgia (Spe)

n/a

R Toss Up

Alaska

Sullivan + 5

R Lean

Mississippi

Hyde-Smith + 5

R Likely

Kentucky

McConnell + 9

R Likely

Alabama

Tuberville + 12

R Likely (Flip)

ARK, ID, LA, NE, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

 

R Solid

SENATE SNAPSHOT: STATE BTRTN RATING CHANGES

State

As of 10/7

As of 10/14

Iowa

D Toss Up (Flip)

D Lean (Flip)

Minnesota

D Solid

D Likely

N. Carolina

D Lean (Flip)

D Toss Up (Flip)

Iowa

D Lean (Flip)

D Toss Up (Flip)

Georgia (Spe)

R Lean

R Toss Up

 

 

 

HOUSE SNAPSHOT

House

As of 10/20

As of 10/28

Generic Ballot

Dem + 8

Dem + 9

 

 

 

Democrats

251 (+ 18)

252 (+ 19)

Republicans

187 (- 18)

186 (- 19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT

Governors

As of 10/14

As of 10/28

DEM TOTAL

23

23

Dem Holdover

20

20

Dem Solid

3

3

Dem Likely

0

0

Dem Lean

0

0

Dem Toss-up

0

0

GOP Toss-up

0

0

GOP Lean

1

1

GOP Likely

1

1

GOP Solid

6

6

GOP Holdover

19

19

GOP TOTAL

27

27

GOVERNOR SNAPSHOT:  STATE BY STATE

Senate By State

Latest Polls

BTRTN Rating

DEL, NC, WASH

 

D Solid

Missouri

Parson + 5

R Lean

Montana

Gianforte + 8

R Likely (Flip)

NH, IN, ND, UT, VT, WV

 

R Solid


4 comments:

  1. Good and thorough, thorough and good. FYI, I have a nasty habit of betting against whomever I support. That strategy cost me money and won me joy in 2008 and 2012. Happy to have a repeat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's called hedging your emotions, Ed. I often do it too! And thanks!

      Delete
  2. But you could look at it as guaranteeing you lose something. Depends on whether the money offsets the pleasure. That's why I never bet against my favorite football team even though they are often underdogs.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As the race in the Battleground States tightens progressive pollsters are shaking in their boots. They realize if they get it wrong again Nate et al will lose credibility forever. The blog writer relies on these pollsters for his analysis so it is hard to opine that he will be personally tainted.

    We will have to wait and see.

    ReplyDelete

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