tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57401093511009711872024-03-19T03:30:06.149-04:00Born To Run The NumbersYou will love this site if you: (1) want accurate national election predictions, (2) are a political junkie, (3) don't have the time to track the campaigns,
and/or (4) crave an informed overview of where things stand. BTRTN has everything you really need to know to stay informed – all in one place. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204820380951843146noreply@blogger.comBlogger870125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-7997523228322956392024-03-04T16:58:00.001-05:002024-03-04T16:58:51.916-05:00BTRTN: Not-So-Super Tuesday PreviewTom gives a brief
preview of what is usually a drama-filled, circle-the-day-on-the-calendar extravaganza that
makes or breaks campaigns. But not this
year.
Welcome to Super Tuesday!
Well, maybe not so super after all. Donald Trump will likely sweep every single
race on the GOP side and Joe Biden surely will do the same in the Democratic
races. There is not much Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-24528344272655403652024-03-02T09:52:00.008-05:002024-03-02T12:05:59.170-05:00BTRTN: An Embarrassment of EmbarrassmentsTom with the February
2024 BTRTN Month in Review.
FEBRUARY 2024
Our politics are a full-fledged
embarrassment. The departure of Donald
Trump from the White House has far from eliminated his pervasiveness. We suffer still for his peculiar talent of infecting
every chance we have to be normal, decent or admirable, and turning it into a
national humiliation. From his own
Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-1576910872791054292024-02-26T16:17:00.004-05:002024-02-26T16:17:41.730-05:00BTRTN Michigan Primary Preview: The Nikki Haley Moral Victory Tour Persists, Plus Biden Versus UncommittedThis most peculiar primary season continues in what
could be the “Ground Zero” election state in November, 2024.
By all rights, Nikki Haley should have packed up her bags
after the New Hampshire primary, and if not then, then surely after South
Carolina. Three straight whippings,
including Iowa, and a 20-point defeat in your home state would, in any other
year, be enough to send an Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-37867224330586287352024-02-23T17:34:00.001-05:002024-02-23T17:34:41.703-05:00BTRTN South Carolina GOP Primary Preview: Why Nikki Remains in the RaceTom addresses the only question about the South
Carolina primary.
Nikki Haley is about to get thrashed in her own state of
South Carolina in the GOP primary tomorrow.
This did not have to happen.
Donald Trump’s convincing win in Iowa, topped with leads
in polling in virtually every other primary state that lay ahead, was more than enough to chase off every other
remaining GOP Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-68947157033298705062024-02-21T22:10:00.003-05:002024-02-22T10:44:39.184-05:00BTRTN: While Democrats SleptDo Democrats understand that Republicans
actually do want to end democracy in America? Steve says it’s not someone else’s job to
fight for democracy. It’s ours.
Nice guys finish
last.
With the 2000 election hanging in the balance like a chad
on a Florida ballot, Democrat Al Gore sought a “fair” resolution to the crisis. George
W. Bush's lawyer, former White House Chief of Staff James Baker, Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-28888296292894579862024-02-12T16:48:00.003-05:002024-02-12T20:38:55.258-05:00BTRTN: Preview of New York’s 3rd Congressional District Special ElectionTom reviews the race
to replace George Santos.
George
Santos will have a D-List celebrity career while on his way to becoming an
answer to a trivia question and a historical footnote. His bizarre run in the limelight as the U.S.
representative in New York’s 3rd District ended last December when
the dysfunctional GOP-led House finally expelled him, after a near two-year
saga. It Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-32794305992460763682024-02-06T08:33:00.001-05:002024-02-06T08:33:50.925-05:00BTRTN: Why You Should Ignore the Nevada Primary (and Caucus)Tom explains the GOP weirdness that begins today in Nevada.
This
will be the outcome in Nevada this week: Nikki Haley will win the primary by an overwhelming margin. Donald Trump will take all the delegates.
How
can this be?
It
all gets down to a spat between the state and the state’s Republican
Party. The state legislature, run by
Democrats, passed a bill in 2021 Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-18157477784429252372024-02-03T12:53:00.104-05:002024-02-04T08:32:56.893-05:00BTRTN Announces Winners of the 2024 “Lindsey Grahammys” for the Worst in Republican HypocrisyReady
for the awards show that celebrates the most outstanding achievements in
Republican political hypocrisy? Cue the
opening credits, the lights, and the music…
Welcome to the 2024 Lindsey Grahammy Awards!
Yes, every year on the day the music industry hands out its
“Grammy” awards, Born To Run The
Numbers hands out statuettes that memorialize the year’s most egregious
examples of deceitStevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-48339747723770457152024-02-02T10:03:00.006-05:002024-02-02T21:33:07.887-05:00BTRTN: What If Trump and the GOP Have No Issues to Run On?Tom is back with the
January, 2024 BTRTN Month in Review.JANUARY 2024
Joe
Biden is stuck at a 40% approval rating.
Conventional wisdom would dictate that he can’t win reelection without
material upward movement over the next nine months. George W. Bush managed reelection with a 48%
approval rating, and (since Truman) every other president who was reelected was
over 50%. Donald Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-77217118357993023272024-01-22T15:34:00.008-05:002024-01-23T06:30:53.083-05:00BTRTN New Hampshire Preview: It’s All Over but for the Incessant ShoutingTom looks at the New
Hampshire primary.
It
was a nice fantasy while it lasted, and we at BTRTN certainly explored it
thoroughly, even as we saw it as the longshot it truly was. We even gave it a cute name, “The Haley
Mary.” But the notion that Nikki Haley
could somehow defy the odds and find a path to the GOP nomination died in the
ice-cold cornfields of Iowa, by the margin of Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-72632902485301680972024-01-14T09:02:00.004-05:002024-01-14T11:48:44.754-05:00BTRTN: The Iowa CaucusesTom looks at the
kick-off event of the 2024 election season.
The
Republican Iowa caucuses take place tomorrow (Monday) night, and there is not
much suspense about the topline outcome in this very white, very evangelical,
Trump-crazed state. So let’s get this
easy prediction out of the way, for what it’s worth: BTRTN predicts Donald Trump will
win the Iowa caucuses handily, Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-42564638570214361262024-01-11T08:24:00.005-05:002024-01-11T08:30:53.388-05:00BTRTN Debate Report: DeSantis puts Haley on the Defensive, and Ekes Out a Crucial Debate Win<!--[if gte mso 9]>
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Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-55476042955032489192024-01-09T07:28:00.019-05:002024-01-09T08:02:22.828-05:00BTRTN: The “Haley Mary”… Can She Really Beat Trump?<!--[if gte mso 9]>
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Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-38107805985157105342024-01-01T04:35:00.110-05:002024-01-02T09:48:54.169-05:00BTRTN: While Biden Machinates, GOP Self-DestructsTom is back with the
December, 2023 BTRTN Month in Review.
DECEMBER 2023
Have
you ever watched curling? Yes, I do mean
the Canadian sports addiction that became a bit of a “thing” to watch during
the 2022 Winter Olympics. For those of
you have never seen the game, a granite stone is pushed slowly across slippery
ice toward a target; while the stone is in motion, players sweep the Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-91612820545702968232023-12-17T07:57:00.004-05:002023-12-17T15:15:56.539-05:00BTRTN: Our Annual Analytically-Based Major League Baseball Hall of Fame PredictionsOccasionally we take a break from politics and turn our attention
to weightier matters, such as our annual prediction of who will be elected to
the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. It is a Ruthian task,
indeed.
It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated
for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF)
ballot. The BBWAA Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-50817908185346863292023-12-07T07:56:00.001-05:002023-12-07T07:58:14.835-05:00BTRTN: Failure to Launch… Hyper-Feisty Debate Yields No Clear Winner (Except, uh, Trump), and a Bigger Question LingersLast night's Republican debate reflected the gloves-off desperation of candidates who sensed that Nikki Haley was pulling away from the pack. Chris Christie was superb, doling out punishing blows to Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis. Nikki Haley emerged with a draw. And, yes, the guy who stayed home won again.
The story going into last night’s Republican debate in
Tuscaloosa, Alabama was all Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-1921488382179215792023-12-02T08:12:00.011-05:002023-12-05T07:55:33.703-05:00BTRTN: A Look at the 2024 Presidential Race, One Year OutTom is back with the
November, 2023 BTRTN Month in Review.
NOVEMBER 2023
The
entire month of November was largely devoted, from a political standpoint, to how
the Biden administration is navigating the Israel-Hamas war. Biden progressed from a full-throated
embrace of Israel’s massive response to Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, to
pressuring Israel, successfully, for a “pause” Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-58890296312610976702023-12-01T13:08:00.000-05:002023-12-01T13:08:14.118-05:00 BTRTN: Hey, House Republicans... You Expelled George Santos for Doing Exactly What Trump Does<!--[if gte mso 9]>
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Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-79444730277694297562023-11-21T07:00:00.000-05:002023-11-21T07:00:43.160-05:00BTRTN: Hey Dems, Wake Up! This is the Issue that Could Beat You in 2024If the Democrats can land the economic plane by
bringing down inflation without triggering a recession, Joe Biden should have a
pretty strong hand to play in 2024: big legislative achievements, strong global
leadership, and a powerful “get out the vote” issue in Dobbs. It’s shaping
up to be a strong messaging platform. But if you've been watching the Republican debates, you know where the Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-45713843485177626482023-11-09T08:44:00.006-05:002023-11-10T18:08:31.403-05:00BTRTN: Republican Debate... Nikki Haley Wins the "Scum Scrum"Last night’s Republican debate was generally
substantive, serious, and orderly… except for one smackdown for the ages.
“Just scum.”
Every now and again a presidential debate has a vivid,
intense moment – a cut, a barb, an insult, or a joke that is remembered long
after the tumult and shouting is over. “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.” “I am not going to exploit, for
political purposes, my Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-63188059612561863322023-11-07T11:40:00.002-05:002023-11-07T11:58:20.653-05:00BTRTN: Why Biden’s 2024 Prospects Are Not Quite as Bad as the NY Times/Siena Poll Would IndicateTom questions the
headlines of the recent poll shocker.
Many
friends and readers have been freaking out about the NY Times/Siena poll
released earlier this week. It paints a
very grim picture of Biden’s reelection prospects based on polling in six swing
states. Their attention-grabbing
conclusion is as follows: “If the
results in the poll were the same next November, Mr. Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-15680755050213762232023-11-02T07:54:00.003-04:002023-11-02T11:27:51.182-04:00BTRTN: A Very Active Presidency in a World on FireTom is back with the
October, 2023 BTRTN Month in Review.
OCTOBER 2023
We
now are living amidst the most troubling and destabilizing era since World War
II. Joe Biden is managing two major,
interrelated wars at a time when democracy itself remains under assault at our
own doorstep, challenges that begin to approach those faced by FDR in simultaneously
grappling with the Great Depression Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-14522131889229812792023-10-23T09:39:00.002-04:002023-10-23T09:57:18.730-04:00BTRTN: One No Trump…The Only Good News in Two Hideous WeeksIt has been two weeks of heartbreak, triggered
by unmeasurable savagery on innocent children, women, and elderly Israeli
citizens, followed by retaliation that – while expected and justified --
nevertheless wrought havoc on the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians. It has been two weeks of Republican farce in Washington. Is there
anything about these past two weeks to leaven Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-49959454113087781042023-10-02T08:19:00.002-04:002023-10-12T18:57:38.169-04:00BTRTN: Has America Lost Its Mind?Tom is back with the
September, 2023 BTRTN Month in Review.
SEPTEMBER 2023
There
were three major stories in September, 2023 – the growing (if that is imaginable)
insanity of Donald Trump, the growing absurdity that defines the Republican
majority of the House of Representatives, and the growing ageism that stalks
Joe Biden and his reelection campaign every day. It is not hard to detect Tomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16441403162832611393noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5740109351100971187.post-43129984103204016122023-09-28T08:25:00.000-04:002023-09-28T08:25:00.949-04:00BTRTN: Republicans Finally Take Aim at the Right Target… But Way Too Little, and Way Too Late. Fast becoming tiny, receding dots in Donald
Trump’s rear-view mirror, some Republicans running for the GOP nomination
finally realized that the time had come to take on Trump directly. But the
headline is simple: while the Republicans had a feisty debate, most everyone simply
held serve. That means that no one stood out… so once again, Trump wins.
Among the many enjoyable moments of the Barbie Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12831721355228953359noreply@blogger.com1