Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Election 2014 Dashboard...Two Weeks to Go, Too Close to Call...and the Games Have Already Begun

Do you realize nearly two million votes have already been cast for the 2014 midterms?  The election season is well underway, of course, but so is the election itself.  And things are looking good for the GOP...though not the “wave” that some have predicted.  As of now, the GOP will pick up five seats in the Senate to take control, a paltry two in the House, and they will hang on to the majority of the state houses while losing a net three to the Democrats.


Senate
House
Governors
Democrats Total
48
199
24
Dem Not Up
34
-
7
Dem Solid
10
169
8
Dem Lean
1
22
1
Dem Toss-up
3
8
8
Rep Toss-up
4
3
4
Rep Lean
3
13
2
Rep Solid
15
220
13
Rep Not Up
30
-
7
Republicans Total
52
236
26
Change from current
R+5
R+2
D + 3

Louisiana is tightening, as Mary Landrieu makes a bit of a comeback.  But unless she takes 50% or more of the vote, she is destined to lose a runoff in December when turnout will drop, hurting her chances.  And New Hampshire is also tightening, as Republican Scott Brown has pulled nearly even in his battle with incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.  And in Colorado, Corey Gardner received a little breathing room over Mark Udall, and is now a Lean versus a Toss-up.  All these close races, but little movement over the past week.  The GOP has to like that, and they are also salivating over North Carolina and Kansas, which are even closer than before.


      SENATE BATTLEGROUND RACES (11)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Last Update
Michigan
D
Peters
Land
D + 9
D Lean
n/c
New Hamp.
D
Shaheen
Brown
D + 1
D Toss-up
From D Lean
N. Carolina
D
Hagan
Tillis
D + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Kansas
R
Orman (I)
Roberts
I + 1
I Toss-up
n/c
Georgia
R
Nunn
Perdue
Even
R Toss-up
n/c
Louisiana
D
Landrieu
Cassidy
R + 1
R Toss-up
From R Lean
Iowa
D
Braley
Ernst
R + 3
R Toss-up
n/c
Kentucky
R
Grimes
McConnell
R + 3
R Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Udall
Gardner
R + 4
R Lean
From R TU
Alaska
D
Begich
Sullivan
R + 5
R Lean
n/c
Arkansas
D
Pryor
Cotton
R + 6
R Lean
n/c

Twelve Governor races are toss-ups, so many scenarios are possible.  But as of now, the Democrats will pick up a net three seats.


            TIGHEST GOVERNOR RACES (15)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Last Update
Rhode Island
D
Raimando
Fung
D + 6
D Lean
From D U
Hawaii
D
Ige
Aiona
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Maine
R
Michaud
LePage
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Florida
R
Crist
Scott
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Illinois
D
Quinn
Rauner
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Alaska
R
Walker (I)
Parnell
I + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Mass.
D
Coakley
Baker
Even
D Toss-up
n/c
Connecticut
D
Malloy
Foley
Even
D Toss-up
n/c
Kansas
R
P. Davis
Brownback
Even
D Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Hickenlooper
Beauprez
R + 1
R Toss-up
From D TU
Wisconsin
R
Burke
Walker
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Georgia
R
Carter
Deal
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Michigan
R
Schauer
Snyder
R + 3
R Toss-up
From R Lean
Arizona
R
DuVal
Ducey
R + 6
R Lean
n/c
Arkansas
D
Ross
Hutchinson
R + 6
R Lean
n/c

And few changes in House races.  We are now down to 46 battleground races.  The GOP will pick up only a few seats…hardly a wave but still a daunting majority.


         HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (46)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Expert Avg.
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Cand.
Cand.
(1=D, 8=R)
Projection
Last Update
Ill 11
D
Foster
Senger
D Lean
2.0
n/c
Iowa 2
D
Loebsack
Miller-Meeks
D Lean
2.0
n/c
Haw 1
D
Takai
Djou
D Lean
2.2
n/c
Ariz 9
D
Sinema
Rogers
D Lean
2.4
n/c
Fla 18
D
Murphy
Domino
D Lean
2.4
n/c
Cal 36
D
Ruiz
Nestande
D Lean
2.6
n/c
Cal 31
R
Aguilar
Chabot
D Lean
2.8
n/c
Ill 17
D
Bustos
Schilling
D Lean
2.8
n/c
Iowa 1
D
Murphy
Blum
D Lean
2.8
n/c
NY 18
D
Maloney
Heyworth
D Lean
2.8
n/c
NY 24
D
Maffei
Maffei
D Lean
2.8
n/c
Minn 7
D
Peterson
Westrom
D Lean
3.0
n/c
NH 2
D
Kuster
Garcia
D Lean
3.0
n/c
Tex 23
D
Gallego
Canseco
D Lean
3.0
n/c
Ga 12
D
Barrow
Allen
D Lean
3.2
n/c
Mass 6
D
Tierney
Tisei
D Lean
3.2
n/c
Maine 2
D
Cain
Polinquin
D Lean
3.3
n/c
NY 1
D
Bishop
Zeldin
D Lean
3.5
n/c
Cal 26
D
Brownley
Gorell
D Lean
3.8
n/c
Cal 7
D
Bera
Ose
D Lean
3.9
n/c
NY 11
R
Recchia
Grimm
D Lean
3.9
n/c
Minn 8
D
Nolan
Mills
D Lean
4.0
From D TU
Fla 26
D
Garcia
Curbilo
D Toss-up
4.2
n/c
Ariz 1
D
Kirkpatrick
Tobin
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Ariz 2
D
Barber
McSally
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Cal 52
D
Peters
DeMaio
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Ill 10
D
Schneider
Dold
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Ill 12
D
Enyart
Bost
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
NH 1
D
Shea-Porter
Guinta
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
WV 3
D
Rahall
Jenkins
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Fla 2
R
TBD
Southerland
R Toss-up
4.7
n/c
Iowa 3
R
Appel
Young
R Toss-up
4.7
n/c
Col 6
R
Romanoff
Coffman
R Toss-up
5.0
n/c
Neb 2
R
Ashford
Terry
R Lean
5.3
n/c
NJ 3
R
Belgard
MacArthur
R Lean
5.5
n/c
Va 10
R
Foust
Comstock
R Lean
5.7
n/c
WV 2
R
Casey
Mooney
R Lean
5.7
n/c
Ark 2
R
Hays
Hill
R Lean
6.0
n/c
NY 21
D
Woolf
Stefanik
R Lean
6.0
n/c
Mich 1
R
Cannon
Benishek
R Lean
6.4
n/c
Ill 13
R
Callis
Davis
R Lean
6.6
n/c
NY 19
R
Eldridge
Gibson
R Lean
6.6
n/c
NY 23
R
Robertson
Reed
R Lean
6.6
n/c
Cal 21
R
Renteria
Valadao
R Lean
6.8
n/c
Mon AL
R
Lewis
Zynke
R Lean
7.0
n/c
Nev 3
R
Bilbray-Cohn
Heck
R Lean
7.0
n/c