Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Election 2014 Dashboard: GOP Still Leads Senate 52-48, But Races Tighten; Still No GOP "Wave" in House; Governorships Split

This week’s Election 2014 Dashboard shows minor changes versus last week.  The GOP continues to project to taking over the Senate 52/48, picking up a few seats in the House to extend their majority (though nothing resembling a “wave”), and losing four statehouses.  But there remain plenty of close races, and the Democrats could very well do better.  In the Senate, for instance, there are four races that are toss-ups – within the margin of error -- that I have in the GOP column.


Senate
House
Governors
Democrats Total
48
199
25
Dem Not Up
34
-
7
Dem Solid
10
168
8
Dem Lean
2
22
0
Dem Toss-up
2
9
10
Rep Toss-up
4
3
2
Rep Lean
3
14
3
Rep Solid
15
219
13
Rep Not Up
30
-
7
Republicans Total
52
236
25
Change from current
R+5
R+2
D + 4

Let’s have a look at the battleground races.

No Senate races “flipped” in the last week, though four races tightened.  North Carolina moved from a Democrat Lean to a toss-up, as Kay Hagan struggles to hold on over Thom Tillis.  But three races where the GOP is ahead were also downgraded from Lean to toss-up, in Colorado, Georgia and Kentucky.  In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is having trouble “closing down” Alison Lunderman Grimes.  The Democrat’s best hopes of holding on to the Senate ride with Bruce Braley in Iowa and Mark Udall in Colorado, who trail but within the margin of error.  Independent Independent Greg Orman still leads in Kansas by a small margin over incumbent Republican Pat Roberts.

Georgia and Louisiana remain of note since there is a requirement for the winner to gain 50% of the vote or go into a runoff.  If the Democrats rebound a bit in those races to at least deny their GOP opponent that magic threshold, the battle for control of the Senate could linger into December.


   SENATE BATTLEGROUND RACES (11)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Last Update
Michigan
D
Peters
Land
D + 8
D Lean
n/c
New Hamp.
D
Shaheen
Brown
D + 5
D Lean
n/c
Kansas
R
Orman (I)
Roberts
I + 3
I Toss-up
n/c
N. Carolina
D
Hagan
Tillis
D + 2
D Toss-up
From D Lean
Iowa
D
Braley
Ernst
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Udall
Gardner
R + 2
R Toss-up
From R Lean
Kentucky
R
Grimes
McConnell
R + 3
R Toss-up
From R Lean
Georgia
R
Nunn
Perdue
R + 3
R Toss-up
From R Lean
Arkansas
D
Pryor
Cotton
R + 4
R Lean
n/c
Alaska
D
Begich
Sullivan
R + 5
R Lean
n/c
Louisiana
D
Landrieu
Cassidy
R + 6
R Lean
n/c

Among the races for governor, 12 – count ‘em – 12 races are toss-ups right now.  The Democrats are projected to pick up three state houses at this point, but all ten of their battleground state leads are within the margin of error.  There were quite a few flips in the last week – five – which is a testament to the see-saw nature of these races.


          TIGHEST GOVERNOR RACES (15)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Last Update
Hawaii
D
Ige
Aiona
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Maine
R
Michaud
LePage
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Hickenlooper
Beauprez
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Mass.
D
Coakley
Baker
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Florida
R
Crist
Scott
D + 2
D Toss-up
From R TU
Connecticut
D
Malloy
Foley
D + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Alaska
R
Walker (I)
Parnell
I + 2
D Toss-up
From R TU
Kansas
R
P. Davis
Brownback
D + 1
D Toss-up
From D Lean
Illinois
D
Quinn
Rauner
D + 1
D Toss-up
From R TU
Rhode Island
D
Raimando
Fung
n/a
D Toss-up
n/c
Wisconsin
R
Burke
Walker
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Georgia
R
Carter
Deal
R + 3
R Toss-up
n/c
Michigan
R
Schauer
Snyder
R + 4
R Lean
From R TU
Arizona
R
DuVal
Ducey
R + 6
R Lean
From D TU
Arkansas
D
Ross
Hutchinson
R + 6
R Lean
From D TU

There were few changes in the House, and no flips.  A few solid Democratic races crept into the Lean column.


     HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (48)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Expert Avg.
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Cand.
Cand.
(1=D, 8=R)
Projection
Last Update
Conn 5
D
Esty
Greenberg
D Lean
2.0
n/c
Ill 11
D
Foster
Senger
D Lean
2.0
From D Solid
Iowa 2
D
Loebsack
Miller-Meeks
D Lean
2.0
From D Solid
Haw 1
D
Takai
Djou
D Lean
2.2
n/c
Ariz 9
D
Sinema
Rogers
D Lean
2.4
n/c
Fla 18
D
Murphy
Domino
D Lean
2.4
n/c
Cal 36
D
Ruiz
Nestande
D Lean
2.6
n/c
Cal 31
R
Aguilar
Chabot
D Lean
2.8
n/c
Ill 17
D
Bustos
Schilling
D Lean
2.8
n/c
Iowa 1
D
Murphy
Blum
D Lean
2.8
n/c
NY 18
D
Maloney
Heyworth
D Lean
2.8
n/c
NY 24
D
Maffei
Maffei
D Lean
2.8
n/c
Minn 7
D
Peterson
Westrom
D Lean
3.0
n/c
NH 2
D
Kuster
Garcia
D Lean
3.0
n/c
Tex 23
D
Gallego
Canseco
D Lean
3.0
n/c
Ga 12
D
Barrow
Allen
D Lean
3.2
n/c
Mass 6
D
Tierney
Tisei
D Lean
3.2
n/c
Maine 2
D
Cain
Polinquin
D Lean
3.3
n/c
NY 1
D
Bishop
Zeldin
D Lean
3.5
n/c
Cal 26
D
Brownley
Gorell
D Lean
3.8
n/c
Cal 7
D
Bera
Ose
D Lean
3.9
n/c
NY 11
R
Recchia
Grimm
D Lean
3.9
n/c
Minn 8
D
Nolan
Mills
D Toss-up
4.0
From D Lean
Fla 26
D
Garcia
Curbilo
D Toss-up
4.2
n/c
Ariz 1
D
Kirkpatrick
Tobin
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Ariz 2
D
Barber
McSally
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Cal 52
D
Peters
DeMaio
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Ill 10
D
Schneider
Dold
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Ill 12
D
Enyart
Bost
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
NH 1
D
Shea-Porter
Guinta
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
WV 3
D
Rahall
Jenkins
D Toss-up
4.3
n/c
Fla 2
R
TBD
Southerland
R Toss-up
4.7
n/c
Iowa 3
R
Appel
Young
R Toss-up
4.7
n/c
Col 6
R
Romanoff
Coffman
R Toss-up
5.0
n/c
Neb 2
R
Ashford
Terry
R Lean
5.3
From R  TU
NJ 3
R
Belgard
MacArthur
R Lean
5.5
n/c
Va 10
R
Foust
Comstock
R Lean
5.7
n/c
WV 2
R
Casey
Mooney
R Lean
5.7
n/c
Ark 2
R
Hays
Hill
R Lean
6.0
n/c
NY 21
D
Woolf
Stefanik
R Lean
6.0
n/c
Mich 1
R
Cannon
Benishek
R Lean
6.4
n/c
Ill 13
R
Callis
Davis
R Lean
6.6
n/c
NY 19
R
Eldridge
Gibson
R Lean
6.6
n/c
NY 23
R
Robertson
Reed
R Lean
6.6
n/c
Cal 21
R
Renteria
Valadao
R Lean
6.8
n/c
Mon AL
R
Lewis
Zynke
R Lean
7.0
n/c
Nev 3
R
Bilbray-Cohn
Heck
R Lean
7.0
n/c
Penn 6
R
Trivedi
Costello
R Lean
7.0
n/c