In the wake of Comey-Gate -- in
which FBI Director James Comey decided it was a good idea to break policy and
inject himself into the presidential race with a mere 11 days to go with the
announcement of the 'Weiner-emails' -- the reasonable question is: can Hillary Clinton now lose? While the post-Comey polling evidence is
thin, we at BTRTN believe she is still the heavy favorite.
But first -- I have been hearing a
great deal about the “damned if he did, damned if he didn’t” defense of Comey
in the past several days. That is, while
is being castigated now (by the Dems), he also would have been castigated (by
the GOP) if he had “withheld” an announcement prior to Election Day when it was
(inevitably) discovered (post-ED) that he knew of the Wiener-mails before
ED. In that scenario, he would have been
accused of participating in a cover-up, and in cahoots with the Department of
Justice and the Clinton campaign.
This is the “damned if he did,
damned if he didn’t” argument. To which
I answer: if you, or anyone, was faced with a “damned if I do, damned if I don’t”
decision, is it not the wisest and most prudent course of action to follow
policy, precedent and protocol, not to mention the advice of your boss?
As for the impact – on September 19th,
at the low point of the Clinton campaign, when Clinton’s lead in the national
polls had narrowed to less than two points (after a bad week), we wrote a piece
called “Why Hillary Will Win.” It basically
focused on four factors in making the case that Hillary’s chances of winning at
that bleak time were actually north of 90%, at a time when most statisticians
were showing the odds in the 50-60% range:
·
That the narrow 2–point margin would
revert in time to its long-haul norm, which had been Clinton by +4-5 points –
that is, even bad news has a relatively short shelf life
·
That Trump was far more likely than
Clinton to commit future gaffes and have more skeletons emerge --and this included the three debates, which were still ahead of us at that time, and we
believed Clinton was more likely to do well in those debates (or less likely to do poorly)
·
That the vaunted Clinton ground game
– she simply has a far larger, more organized and more seasoned campaign staff
state-by-state to get out the vote – would favor Clinton once voting was
permitted, and this factor was not reflected in the polls
·
And that the enormous money advantage
that she has could only be a positive for her, and this was also not reflected
in the polls
The first and second points turned
out to be true. Even before The Tape emerged, Clinton’s lead had gone back up
from 2 points to 4-5 points. After The
Tape, the Debates (Clinton won all three) and the ensuing Trump Meltdown, the
gap ballooned to 9 points – but, true to form, has since receded to 4-5 points
again. And the third and fourth points
continue to go unchallenged and continue to be major factors.
I will add three new points:
·
Approximately 20 million Americans
have already voted, out of a total of approximately 120 million to be
cast. Thus Trump has to overcome, in
weighted-average fashion, the advantage Clinton already has in the early going, with
votes from the remaining balance. Democrats tend
to vote early in greater numbers, which is why the GOP works so hard to limit
early voting.
·
The limited data thus far does not
indicate Comey-Gate is having a major impact on the election. Below is a chart showing, as best as
possible, three pre/post reads. The Morning
Consult one is “pure,” since all of the surveying was done cleanly, one survey conducted
before Comey-Gate and one after. The ABC
News/Washington Post and IDB/TIPP polls are issued daily but the surveys are
conducted over 5- and 6-day period, respectively, meaning that only parts of
each are post-Comey. Nevertheless, the
results of all three seem to indicate about a 1-2 point move thus far for
Trump. (Also note that while all three
of these polls show a very close race, there are other polls – FOX, Pew, CNBC,
The Economist – that were showing larger Clinton leads, anywhere from 3-7
points pre-Comey. If the 1-2 point
change holds for these polls as well, we can extrapolate that Clinton’s true
national lead is in the 3-4 point range.)
PRE/POST COMEY-GATE NATIONAL POLLS
|
||||||
Two-Person Polling
|
Morning Consult
|
ABC News/Wash Post
|
IDB/TIPP
|
|||
Dates >>>
|
Oct 27-28
|
Oct 29-30
|
Oct 24-27
|
Oct 26-29
|
Oct 22-27
|
Oct 25-30
|
Clinton
|
46.3
|
46.3
|
47.0
|
46.0
|
44.2
|
45.1
|
Trump
|
41.0
|
42.7
|
45.0
|
45.0
|
41.6
|
43.4
|
Other/NA
|
12.7
|
11.0
|
8.0
|
9.0
|
14.2
|
11.5
|
Spread (D - R)
|
5.3
|
3.6
|
2.0
|
1.0
|
2.6
|
1.7
|
Change
|
-1.7
|
-1.0
|
-0.9
|
|||
·
There has been little state polling
since Comey. But if the national impact
has been 1-2 points, that will not make too much difference at the state
level. Trump has to win all the Leaning
and Toss-up states plus one-two Clinton Solid states to get to 270, and 2
points will not do that.
So, I am still quite convinced
Clinton will win, barring another negative bombshell. We will have a complete summary of all the
races tomorrow (presidential, Senate, House, Governors).
