Swing State Pres

Monday, October 31, 2016

Why Hillary Will Still Win, Post-Comey

In the wake of Comey-Gate -- in which FBI Director James Comey decided it was a good idea to break policy and inject himself into the presidential race with a mere 11 days to go with the announcement of the 'Weiner-emails' -- the reasonable question is:  can Hillary Clinton now lose?  While the post-Comey polling evidence is thin, we at BTRTN believe she is still the heavy favorite.

But first -- I have been hearing a great deal about the “damned if he did, damned if he didn’t” defense of Comey in the past several days.  That is, while is being castigated now (by the Dems), he also would have been castigated (by the GOP) if he had “withheld” an announcement prior to Election Day when it was (inevitably) discovered (post-ED) that he knew of the Wiener-mails before ED.  In that scenario, he would have been accused of participating in a cover-up, and in cahoots with the Department of Justice and the Clinton campaign.

This is the “damned if he did, damned if he didn’t” argument.  To which I answer: if you, or anyone, was faced with a “damned if I do, damned if I don’t” decision, is it not the wisest and most prudent course of action to follow policy, precedent and protocol, not to mention the advice of your boss?

As for the impact – on September 19th, at the low point of the Clinton campaign, when Clinton’s lead in the national polls had narrowed to less than two points (after a bad week), we wrote a piece called “Why Hillary Will Win.”  It basically focused on four factors in making the case that Hillary’s chances of winning at that bleak time were actually north of 90%, at a time when most statisticians were showing the odds in the 50-60% range:

·         That the narrow 2–point margin would revert in time to its long-haul norm, which had been Clinton by +4-5 points – that is, even bad news has a relatively short shelf life
·         That Trump was far more likely than Clinton to commit future gaffes and have more skeletons emerge --and this included the three debates, which were still ahead of us at that time, and we believed Clinton was more likely to do well in those debates (or less likely to do poorly)
·         That the vaunted Clinton ground game – she simply has a far larger, more organized and more seasoned campaign staff state-by-state to get out the vote – would favor Clinton once voting was permitted, and this factor was not reflected in the polls
·         And that the enormous money advantage that she has could only be a positive for her, and this was also not reflected in the polls

The first and second points turned out to be true.  Even before The Tape emerged, Clinton’s lead had gone back up from 2 points to 4-5 points.  After The Tape, the Debates (Clinton won all three) and the ensuing Trump Meltdown, the gap ballooned to 9 points – but, true to form, has since receded to 4-5 points again.  And the third and fourth points continue to go unchallenged and continue to be major factors.

I will add three new points:

·         Approximately 20 million Americans have already voted, out of a total of approximately 120 million to be cast.  Thus Trump has to overcome, in weighted-average fashion, the advantage Clinton already has in the early going, with votes from the remaining balance.  Democrats tend to vote early in greater numbers, which is why the GOP works so hard to limit early voting.
·         The limited data thus far does not indicate Comey-Gate is having a major impact on the election.  Below is a chart showing, as best as possible, three pre/post reads.  The Morning Consult one is “pure,” since all of the surveying was done cleanly, one survey conducted before Comey-Gate and one after.  The ABC News/Washington Post and IDB/TIPP polls are issued daily but the surveys are conducted over 5- and 6-day period, respectively, meaning that only parts of each are post-Comey.  Nevertheless, the results of all three seem to indicate about a 1-2 point move thus far for Trump.  (Also note that while all three of these polls show a very close race, there are other polls – FOX, Pew, CNBC, The Economist – that were showing larger Clinton leads, anywhere from 3-7 points pre-Comey.  If the 1-2 point change holds for these polls as well, we can extrapolate that Clinton’s true national lead is in the 3-4 point range.)

PRE/POST COMEY-GATE NATIONAL POLLS
Two-Person Polling
Morning Consult
ABC News/Wash Post
IDB/TIPP
Dates >>>
Oct 27-28
Oct 29-30
Oct 24-27
Oct 26-29
Oct 22-27
Oct 25-30
Clinton
46.3
46.3
47.0
46.0
44.2
45.1
Trump
41.0
42.7
45.0
45.0
41.6
43.4
Other/NA
12.7
11.0
8.0
9.0
14.2
11.5
Spread (D - R)
5.3
3.6
2.0
1.0
2.6
1.7
Change

-1.7

-1.0

-0.9


·         There has been little state polling since Comey.  But if the national impact has been 1-2 points, that will not make too much difference at the state level.  Trump has to win all the Leaning and Toss-up states plus one-two Clinton Solid states to get to 270, and 2 points will not do that.

So, I am still quite convinced Clinton will win, barring another negative bombshell.  We will have a complete summary of all the races tomorrow (presidential, Senate, House, Governors).

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Comey Acrimony

I woke up this morning with my non-numbers, partisan hat on. I was loaded for bear, ready to use this platform to denounce FBI Director James Comey. But then I discovered that my friend Carll Tucker had already done the job with this early morning missive, and done it well, and I reprint it with his permission. 

As for the impact this revelation will have on the polls and the election, my sense is...very little. I think that the lines are fairly well drawn at this point, and nothing short of a true smoking gun could be a game-changer. 

It will become clear that no one at the FBI has actually even seen these emails as yet, much less determined if any of them are problematic in any way. All Comey knows now is that they exist, and for some reason he thought that was worth a mention that, surprise, October surprise, ended up as breaking news. 

I can foresee a narrowing of the margin, but hardly a threatening one.  On to Carll, with thanks...

Not a good morning. FBI Director James Comey is very stupid or very evil. To announce the possible reopening of an investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s emails twelve days before the Presidential election without even giving the White House a heads up? A Presidential election on which many people think the free world’s fate depends? Did you not consider, Mr. Comey, the impact of your announcement on this election? Or did you consider it and think, a-hah, here’s my chance? Did you imagine that the President, your boss’s boss, would be pleased with your surprise?

The confusion generated by Director Comey’s decision is so spectacular it’s blinding. Is it OK to shout fire in a crowded theater, panic folks with news of a Martian landing, proclaim to the thirsty the water’s toxic? No! The FBI’s practice is never to discuss ongoing investigations. Why this exception?

Do you smell Putin? I hate to contribute to the cyclone of conspiratorial speculation encouraged by Trump, but isn’t the timing here a tad too convenient? We know the Russians have been trying to confuse our national conversation with hacking and leaking emails. How better to confuse than to damn Hillary without indicting her? Where there’s smoke there’s fire, heh-heh.

Is America being played? Thrice in my life I’ve been shocked by malicious betrayal. No feeling’s worse. I trusted and was lied to – deliberately – so I’d be hurt. My gut hollowed, fingers trembled, footstep wobbled. Who else might be out to get me? Suspicion blurred my vision. My brain howled with self-disgust. How could I have been such a dope!

If this supposed act of justice is a sneak attack, score one for our foes. At Pearl Harbor or on Nine Eleven, while taken unawares, we knew we’d been hit and by whom. War had been declared. What a neat trick to get impregnable America to destroy itself by electing its nemesis!

Sounds like crazy talk, I know – I apologize – but when you smell a rat, shouldn’t you speak up? I don’t spook often. This morning I woke tense, in a sweat, feeling stalked.

If I were President, I would fire Comey today. That he dropped this bomb into our political process without warning the White House is crime enough. Evil and idiocy often look alike. If Comey didn’t suspect the impact of his weird letter, he should have. If he did and stayed mum, he’s up to something.

Then what? To preemptively pardon Hillary might lose her the election. To pause the investigation might likewise inflame suspicion. In this embittered divided hour is there any one American the majority would trust to sort out this mess rapidly and fairly? President Bush the lesser? Chief Justice Roberts?

Tell me, please, I am overreacting. I’ve been watching too many movies like The Manchurian Candidate. I’m being paranoid. This can’t happen here.

Oh, how I hope that is so. Please heaven Comey suffers from stupidity, not ambition, and his mistake was innocent. How sweet if a pill or a drink could dispel this terror. How I long to be wrong.

Can it be – oh, irony! – that the Internet, our most brilliant invention, is the disease that takes us down? Hillary’s damn email server has been Trump’s single salient attack point (“Lock her up!”). Periodic hacks and disclosures have armed Trump’s mud-machine. The fair-and-square revelations about Trump show him to be a loathsome, predatory liar. Hillary’s hacks have turned up internal squabbles and debates, nothing vile. But the Internet is an equal opportunity sniper, suggesting between candidates an equivalence in awfulness.

Write me, please, and tell me I’m nuts and should take a nap.

Comey Acrimony

I woke up this morning with my non-numbers, partisan hat on. I was loaded for bear, ready to use this platform to denounce FBI Director James Comey. But then I discovered that my friend Carll Tucker had already done the job with this early morning missive, and done it well, and I reprint it with his permission. 

As for the impact this revelation will have on the polls and the election, my sense is...very little. I think that the lines are fairly well drawn at this point, and nothing short of a true smoking gun could be a game-changer. 

It will become clear that no one at the FBI has actually even seen these emails as yet, much less determined if any of them are problematic in any way. All Comey knows now is that they exist, and for some reason he thought that was worth a mention that, surprise, October surprise, ended up as breaking news. 

I can foresee a narrowing of the margin, but hardly a threatening one.  On to Carll, with thanks...

Not a good morning. FBI Director James Comey is very stupid or very evil. To announce the possible reopening of an investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s emails twelve days before the Presidential election without even giving the White House a heads up? A Presidential election on which many people think the free world’s fate depends? Did you not consider, Mr. Comey, the impact of your announcement on this election? Or did you consider it and think, a-hah, here’s my chance? Did you imagine that the President, your boss’s boss, would be pleased with your surprise?

The confusion generated by Director Comey’s decision is so spectacular it’s blinding. Is it OK to shout fire in a crowded theater, panic folks with news of a Martian landing, proclaim to the thirsty the water’s toxic? No! The FBI’s practice is never to discuss ongoing investigations. Why this exception?

Do you smell Putin? I hate to contribute to the cyclone of conspiratorial speculation encouraged by Trump, but isn’t the timing here a tad too convenient? We know the Russians have been trying to confuse our national conversation with hacking and leaking emails. How better to confuse than to damn Hillary without indicting her? Where there’s smoke there’s fire, heh-heh.

Is America being played? Thrice in my life I’ve been shocked by malicious betrayal. No feeling’s worse. I trusted and was lied to – deliberately – so I’d be hurt. My gut hollowed, fingers trembled, footstep wobbled. Who else might be out to get me? Suspicion blurred my vision. My brain howled with self-disgust. How could I have been such a dope!

If this supposed act of justice is a sneak attack, score one for our foes. At Pearl Harbor or on Nine Eleven, while taken unawares, we knew we’d been hit and by whom. War had been declared. What a neat trick to get impregnable America to destroy itself by electing its nemesis!

Sounds like crazy talk, I know – I apologize – but when you smell a rat, shouldn’t you speak up? I don’t spook often. This morning I woke tense, in a sweat, feeling stalked.

If I were President, I would fire Comey today. That he dropped this bomb into our political process without warning the White House is crime enough. Evil and idiocy often look alike. If Comey didn’t suspect the impact of his weird letter, he should have. If he did and stayed mum, he’s up to something.

Then what? To preemptively pardon Hillary might lose her the election. To pause the investigation might likewise inflame suspicion. In this embittered divided hour is there any one American the majority would trust to sort out this mess rapidly and fairly? President Bush the lesser? Chief Justice Roberts?

Tell me, please, I am overreacting. I’ve been watching too many movies like The Manchurian Candidate. I’m being paranoid. This can’t happen here.

Oh, how I hope that is so. Please heaven Comey suffers from stupidity, not ambition, and his mistake was innocent. How sweet if a pill or a drink could dispel this terror. How I long to be wrong.

Can it be – oh, irony! – that the Internet, our most brilliant invention, is the disease that takes us down? Hillary’s damn email server has been Trump’s single salient attack point (“Lock her up!”). Periodic hacks and disclosures have armed Trump’s mud-machine. The fair-and-square revelations about Trump show him to be a loathsome, predatory liar. Hillary’s hacks have turned up internal squabbles and debates, nothing vile. But the Internet is an equal opportunity sniper, suggesting between candidates an equivalence in awfulness.

Write me, please, and tell me I’m nuts and should take a nap.

BTRTN Endorses Democrat Alison Boak for New York State Senate, District 40. Pass It On!

Time to get out the vote for Alison Boak in the crucial New York State Senate District 40 race...one of the Democrat's best shots at flipping a seat to take control of the NYS Senate.

It may surprise you to learn that the New York State Senate has a Republican majority caucus.  The Assembly is heavily Democratic, but not the Senate.  That means that New York State, correctly viewed as Deep Blue in national elections, is far from within state politics.  Progressive legislation is often thwarted and there are situations that are, in fact, shocking – for instance, New York has never been able to pass a law aligning state abortion legislation with Roe v Wade, so that if that law were ever overturned by a conservative U.S. Supreme Court – heaven forbid – New Yorkers would be exposed to far more restrictive abortion rights.

And, of course, New York, like California, is a highly influential state:  what happens in Albany, like Sacramento, is often a bellweather for other states across the nation.  So, the bottom line is we need to flip the Senate to create a true Democratic majority.  And to do that, we need to win “swing” races like New York’s 40th district.  Like our U.S. Congress, relatively few New York State Senate seats are actually “in play.”  And one of them is New York’s 40th.  The Republicans have won the last two elections in this district by a mere two points, so it is a prime target in the quest for Senate control.

And that is why BTRTN is supporting Alison Boak for New York State Senate in District #40.

NY SD 40.JPG
New York Senate District 40
Ali Boak has made a career of public service, starting from her time as a Peace Corps volunteer and Fulbright Scholar in the Baltic States, where she set up health centers and worked with vulnerable youth. She has a Masters of Public Health from the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, and co-founded the International Organization for Adolescents (IOFA), an international nonprofit organization dedicated to the elimination of human trafficking and exploitation of adolescents.

An internationally recognized expert on human trafficking and a longtime advocate for adolescent health, Ali is co-founder of the Westchester Anti-Trafficking Task Force and her work in combating the exploitation and trafficking of children and youth has been recognized by Michael Bloomberg, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Representative Nita Lowey and Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino.
Ali is an active citizen in her community, having served on the Pound Ridge Town Board; founder of the Pound Ridge Partnership; member of the Bedford Central School District Budget Advisory Committee, the subcommittee on School District Budget Comparison, Chair, and a Girl Scout Troop Leader.
A centerpiece of Ali’s candidacy is her role as a longtime and vocal advocate for the rights of women and girls in New York and around the world. In the State Senate, she will continue this fight and will:
·         Safeguard Reproductive Rights: Ali is pro-choice and will strongly advocate for the Passage of the Reproductive Health Act, which would guarantee a woman’s right to control her reproductive health.
·         Stand up for Survivors of Domestic Violence and Human Trafficking: As State Senator, Ali will ensure that survivors of domestic violence and human trafficking have the resources and support they need to seek justice and rebuild their lives.
·         Support Equal Pay for Equal Work: Women still earn only $0.79 for every dollar earned by men in comparable jobs. This means lower pay, less family income, and more poverty, especially in households headed by a single mother. Ending wage discrimination is not only vital for women and their families, but also for our local economies.

Ali has the endorsement of the Planned Parenthood Hudson-Peconic Action Fund.  Her opponent has an agenda that is opposed to woman’s health rights and has consistently voted against the types of measures that Ali will fight for.  If this issue is important to you, your choice is a no-brainer.  She will work tirelessly with George Latimer and their colleagues to achieve a progressive women’s health agenda.

Here are links to Ali’s website and for donations to her campaign.  Those of you who live in Westchester, Dutchess and Putnam counties, please pass this on to friends, like it on Facebook and retweet it on Twitter.  Vote for Ali!

Find out more:  https://boak4ny.com/

Syracuse University: You Have a Very Personal Reason to Denounce Donald Trump. Take Action!

This letter written by a friend, Chuck Dunn, to Syracuse University, speaks for itself.   It is an anti-Trump call to action to the Syracuse community for a very specific reason.

Dear Daily Orange,

I am writing to you as the parent of a recent Syracuse University graduate and a former employee of Pan American World Airways.

In this election year one cannot sit on the sidelines or grumble among friends.  More so than usual, a vote cast by the student body this year will decide the sort of America they pass on to their children.  So it’s not too much to say that everything depends on your making the right choice.

On December 21, 1988, Libya’s former dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, blew Pan American Flight #103 out of the sky over Lockerbie, Scotland.  Among the 270 dead were 35 Syracuse University students and faculty.

This is what Mr. Trump said in February about this brutal dictator: While he was “really bad”, he said,  “…his tactics were effective” And “We would be so much better off if Gaddafi were in charge right now.”  When he said that, Mr. Trump didn’t just broadcast his admiration for Gaddafi…a bad guy who got things done, he also endorsed his tactics, thus depicting all the blood shed as mere collateral damage!

All members of the Syracuse University Community: students, faculty, alumni, employees, and parents of current and former Syracuse University students must be mindful of the horrific comments uttered by Donald Trump and how they should be as outraged as I was and take these comments as a personal affront to all.

Has he no shame?  He has offended most American’s and has no regard for anyone but himself.  His values are not representative of a civil society.

Do not passively sit back and watch this mad man take away your future.  I urge every one of you to register and vote for anyone but Mr. Trump.  You are the social media generation; use it effectively to urge your friends and colleagues to stop Mr. Trump.

I want an engaged and enraged Syracuse University community, to help derail any possibility of a Trump Presidency.

Sincerely,

Charles Dunn

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

BTRTN 50-State Electoral College Snapshot #8: With Two Weeks To Go, Clinton Now Has 272 Solids and Maintains Commanding Lead

With two weeks to go, Hillary Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead in this Electoral College rack-up, 351/187 for the third consecutive week.  But there once again has been some modest shifting in several states, and the consequence is that she now has 272 Solids, which is, of course, two more than she needs for the presidency.  As a cushion, she continues to lead in states that comprise another 79 electoral votes, some by thin margins.  To say that Donald Trump needs a “Hail Mary” win this election is, at this point, overstating the odds.  Closer to the mark might be the phrase with which my mother’s priest used to end confessions:  he really needs “three Hail Mary’s twice.”

Trump seems to be tiring on the road, bored with screaming about rigged elections and defending himself against sexual assault charges from what is now 11 women.  Clinton has moved on, pushing to sweep the swing states and tout Democratic candidates in tight races.  Her confident and superb performance at Debate #3 is now translating to a smooth stage persona, not quite riveting or moving, but certainly in command of her good material.

The polls have flattened a bit, but she still has an astonishing 7-point margin.  Recall that in 2012, Obama and Romney see-sawed back and forth in the national polls up to Election Day, and Obama had a day-before lead of less than a point (although he had a somewhat more material grip on the swing states).

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Week Ending
Sep 17
Sep 24
Oct 1
Oct 8
Oct 15
Oct 23
Clinton
45.0
46.5
47.0
48.3
49.1
48.6
Trump
43.2
43.3
42.5
42.7
40.5
41.7
Other/NA
11.8
10.2
10.5
9.0
10.4
10.7
Margin
1.8
3.2
4.5
5.6
8.6
6.9

The big change of the week was flipping Colorado from Lean to Solid, pushing Hillary’s Solids over the 270 mark.  And overall, our BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot #8 still has Clinton up 351-187.

Despite an incredible well of fodder, we have not had a chance to write any song parodies in this campaign season, but almost exactly four years ago we wrote one to the tune of Simon & Garfunkel’s classic, “I Am a Rock (I Am An Island).”  The parody line went:  “I Am Barack, I Need Ohio.”  (It was a pretty good one, here is a link if you want to see the whole song:  http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2012/10/song-parody-i-am-barack-i-need-ohio.html.)

Back then, everyone thought Obama did need Ohio, and, like every presidential winner save one (Kennedy in 1960) since 1944, he did take it.  But the fact is, he could have lost Ohio and still won.  And that is the case with Hillary Clinton.  It is darn close in Ohio, perhaps the closest state race right now, but she can win without it, and win easily.  Ohio’s day as a bellwether state are over.

For Trump to win….should we bother going through this?  OK, he needs to defend his own red states (he has a 5-point-or-less lead in seven states), flip all of the Toss-ups and Leans that Clinton is leading (another five states) and, for good measure, then flip a Solid Blue.  Just for perspective, there have been 37 polls in those five Clinton Lean/Toss-up states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio) since October 1, and Clinton has led in 31 of them and tied two.  And in the Solid blue states, she has led in 181 out of 183 polls since August 1.  Flipping all of these -- at this point, after three debates and with early voting well underway --  this is simply not happening.

One last item worthy of note is Utah, which has suddenly turned into a close three-way race.  No, it's not Gary “What is Aleppo?” Johnson making a stand, but rather a conservative Independent named Evan McMullin who is running neck and neck and neck with Trump and Clinton (roughly 30/30/26).  McMullin is a former CIA operative, Wharton MBA and House Staffer – and a Mormom in a state that went for Romney by +48 in 2012, and appears to detest both Trump and Clinton.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College
Oct 16
Oct 23
CLINTON - TOTAL
351
351
Clinton - Solid
263
272
Clinton - Lean
59
35
Clinton - Tossup
29
44
Trump - Tossup
1
7
Trump - Lean
93
83
Trump - Solid
93
97
TRUMP - TOTAL
187
187



Swing States (EC)
Latest Polls                   as of Oct 9
BTRTN Rating
Nevada (6)
Clinton +5
Lean D
Florida (29)
Clinton +4
Lean D
N. Carolina (15)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
Ohio (18)
Clinton +1
Toss-up D
Arizona (11)
Clinton +0
Toss-up D
Utah (6)
Trump +1
Toss-up R
Alaska (3)
Trump +3
Lean R
Texas (38)
Trump +3
Lean R
Georgia (16)
Trump +3
Lean R
S. Carolina (9)
Trump +4
Lean R
Iowa (6)
Trump +4
Lean R
Indiana (11)
Trump +5
Lean R

‘***************************

Here is the full 50-state Snapshot.  Note that Maine is split (hence the asterisk), with 3 Solid electoral votes for Clinton and one Toss-up R for Trump (Maine CD 2).  Changed ratings are in CAPS.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT

2016 Electoral Votes
2012 Margin    (D-R)
Latest 2016 Polls as              of 10/23/16
BTRTN Prior Rating as of 10/16/16
BTRTN Current Rating as of 10/23/16
DC
3
84

Solid
Solid
Hawaii
4
43

Solid
Solid
Maryland
10
25

Solid
Solid
Massachusetts
11
23

Solid
Solid
Vermont
3
36

Solid
Solid
California
55
21

Solid
Solid
New York
29
27

Solid
Solid
Washington
12
14

Solid
Solid
Illinois
20
16

Solid
Solid
New Jersey
14
17

Solid
Solid
Delaware
3
19

Solid
Solid
New Mexico
5
10

Solid
Solid
Oregon
7
12

Solid
Solid
Connecticut
7
18

Solid
Solid
Rhode Island
4
27

Solid
Solid
Maine
4
15

Solid*
Solid*
Minnesota
10
8

Solid
Solid
Virginia
13
3

Solid
Solid
Michigan
16
10

Solid
Solid
New Hampshire
4
6

Solid
Solid
Pennsylvania
20
5

Solid
Solid
Wisconsin
10
7

Solid
Solid
Colorado
9
5

Lean
SOLID
Nevada
6
7
Clinton +5
Lean
Lean
Florida
29
1
Clinton +4
Lean
Lean
N. Carolina
15
-2
Clinton +2
Lean
TOSS-UP
Ohio
18
2
Clinton +1
Toss-up
Toss-up
Arizona
11
-11
Clinton +0
Toss-up
Toss-up
Utah
6
-48
Trump +1
Solid
Toss-up
Alaska
3
-13
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
Texas
38
-16
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
Georgia
16
-8
Trump +3
Lean
Lean
S. Carolina
9
-11
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Iowa
6
6
Trump +4
Lean
Lean
Indiana
11
-11
Trump +5
Lean
Lean
Missouri
10
-10

Lean
SOLID
Mississippi
6
-12

Solid
Solid
Montana
3
-14

Solid
Solid
Louisiana
8
-17

Solid
Solid
S. Dakota
3
-18

Solid
Solid
N. Dakota
3
-20

Solid
Solid
Tennessee
11
-21

Solid
Solid
Kansas
6
-22

Solid
Solid
Alabama
9
-22

Solid
Solid
Nebraska
5
-23

Solid
Solid
Kentucky
8
-23

Solid
Solid
Arkansas
6
-24

Solid
Solid
W. Virginia
5
-27

Solid
Solid
Idaho
4
-32

Solid
Solid
Oklahoma
7
-34

Solid
Solid
Wyoming
3
-41

Solid
Solid