Swing State Pres

Friday, June 29, 2012

The 2012 Election Week in Review (June 29, 2012)

With this post, I am beginning a new phase of this blog, essentially more frequent, shorter posts.  I will split up my normal Monday post into four separate segments:  the Dashboard/Obameter on Monday, the Week in Review on Friday, with the Topic of the Week, Song Parody and other items filling in the other days.  Hopefully you will bookmark this blog and come back everyday!
WEEK IN REVIEW (June 29, 2012)
Of course the news this week was dominated by the Supreme Court's ruling upholding ObamaCare.  Forgive me my unabashed display of self-promotion for my "called shot!"  I've had a number go the other way (in the same June 25 post, I endorsed Rich Becker for the Democratic primary for the newly re-districted 18th Congressional District in New York – he lost!), so this one felt good!

Regardless of how you might feel about the merits of either the law itself or the Court's ruling, the political implications are as follows.  It has to be a win for Obama, of course – a surprising affirmation of his signature legislation from this Court that is hard to argue.  And the fact that it was Chief Justice John Roberts, widely respected personally, as a Chief, as a jurist and as a conservative, who cast the decisive swing vote (and not Justice Kennedy, the usual swinger) was a particular bonus. 

Thursday, June 28, 2012

I called this one! ObamaCare upheld (June 28, 2012)

Here is what I said just three days ago (see my June 25, 2012 post) and before then as well:
I believe I've said this before in a prior post, so I am already on the record in my belief that the Court will not touch the law.  I don't think John Roberts wants this to be his legacy, and invite parallels with FDR antagonist Chief Justice Hughes, or make the court a campaign issue in the fall.  I think he'll find a way to get Justice Kennedy to decide to leave the mandate and the entire law alone, and then side with the majority in a 6-3 opinion. 

I did get it wrong on the vote count....

Monday, June 25, 2012

Well It's a Marvelous Law with a Mandate (June 25, 2012)

THE DASHBOARD
The Dashboard has swung back Obama's way as each measure is now positive for him.  However, it is still very close, and the positive margins for Obama, while consistent, are hardly commanding.  It seems clear to me that the immigration issue has been a solid win for Obama and has been driving the recent news cycle.  That will change later this week with health care.

  • The Obameter.  Over the last week, Obama has surged a bit.  The rising stock market, falling gas prices and a dip in Romney's favorability rating have been the drivers.
  • The Charisma Factor.  Recent favorability data shows a slightly widened Obama lead, up from +4.4 to +7.9.
  • Latest Polling.  New polling has gone Obama's way (now +2.1%), as new polls by Bloomberg (see below), the Associated Press and Pew have all shown Obama ahead.  There has also been a swing back to Obama in Gallup's daily tracking.  Only Rasmussen, notorious for consistently favoring Republicans, has Obama trailing.
  • Swing States.  New polls show Michigan tightening and Missouri more decisively in Romney's favor, thus tightening the overall swing state polling to a mere +1.1 for Obama. But Obama's leads are still translating into a 314-224 Electoral College projection as of now.


OBAMETER














30-Apr
31-May
4-Jun
11-Jun
18-Jun
25-Jun
Unemployment Rate (beginning)
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
Consumer Confidence (end)
68.7
64.9
64.9
64.9
64.9
64.9
Price of Gas (average for month)
3.96
3.79
3.67
3.63
3.59
3.49
Dow-Jones (average for month)
    13,031
    12,722
    12,119
      12,332
      12,580
      12,724
Romney Favorability (average)
36.6
45.2
44.0
44.0
44.0
42.7
"Events"
0
0
0
0
0
0







Unemployment Rate (beginning)
5
6
5
5
5
5
Consumer Confidence (end)
4
0
0
0
0
0
Price of Gas (average for month)
-6
-5
-4
-3
-3
-3
Dow-Jones (average for month)
10
6
0
3
5
6
Romney Favorability (average)
1
-7
-6
-6
-6
-5
"Events"
0
0
0
0
0
0







OBAMETER
13.3
0.5
-4.2
-1.6
1.2
5.0
Obama versus Romney
3.5
1.5
-2.0
0.7
-1.5
2.1

Monday, June 18, 2012

Greece is Absurd (June 18, 2012)

THE DASHBOARD
Obama continues to be ahead marginally on Dashboard (look to the right) measures, slightly ahead on the Obameter, the Charisma Factor, and in Swing States.  The Latest Polling is basically a dead heat, though directionally favoring Romney.

  • The Obameter.  Over the last week, Obama has benefited from an upswing in the stock market and slightly lower gas prices, pushing the Obameter slightly into positive territory for him (+0.8)
  • The Charisma Factor.  Recent favorability data shows a slightly widened Obama lead, up from +3.3 to +4.4.
  • Latest Polling.  New polling continues to nominally favor Romney (-1.0) although it could not be much closer.
  • Swing States.  New polls in Ohio and Iowa are showing Romney with slight leads, and therefore a narrowing of Obama's overall Swing State lead (+1.5).  I have a new feature on the right, called the Electoral College Projector, and based on the polling it shows Obama with a reasonably comfortable 318 to 220 margin.  That margin is buoyed, however, by my throwing true "dead heat" Florida into Obama's column due to the Charisma factor…if those 29 delegates go the other way, Obama's lead is cut to 289 to 249….still enough.  Yes, Obama can win even if he loses Florida AND Ohio.

OBAMETER








Baseline







1-Jan
31-Mar
30-Apr
31-May
4-Jun
11-Jun
18-Jun
Unemployment Rate (beginning)
8.7
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.2
Consumer Confidence (end)
65.0
69.5
68.7
64.9
64.9
64.9
64.9
Price of Gas (average for month)
3.32
3.91
3.96
3.79
3.79
3.67
3.63
Dow-Jones (average for month)
    12,076
    13,084
    13,031
    12,722
    12,119
      12,332
       12,580
Romney Favorability (average)
38.0
36.8
36.6
45.2
44.0
44.0
44.0
"Events"
0
0
0
0
0
0
0








Unemployment Rate (beginning)
8.7
4
5
6
5
5
5
Consumer Confidence (end)
65
5
4
0
0
0
0
Price of Gas (average for month)
3.32
-6
-6
-5
-5
-4
-3
Dow-Jones (average for month)
    12,076
10
10
6
0
3
5
Romney Favorability (average)
38
1
1
-7
-6
-6
-6
"Events"
0
0
0
0
0
0
0








OBAMETER
0.0
13.9
13.3
0.5
-5.4
-2.0
0.8
Obama versus Romney
1.1
4.8
3.5
1.5
-2.0
0.7
-1.5