Swing State Pres

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Election 2014 Dashboard: One Week to Go, And Some Hope for the Dems in the Senate

One week to go…and though I gaze at the sea quite often, there is no sign of a Republican wave approaching.  And I think I would have seen a tsunami by now, so that is out of the question.  The odds are strong that the GOP will be celebrating on Election Night, but there is still a chance the Democrats could spoil the Senate party.  Here is the latest scorecard, showing the GOP taking the Senate at 51/49 (down from 52/48 last week), picking up a measly three House seats, and the Democrats actually flipping a few statehouses.  After the chart is a look at all of the battleground races.


Senate
House
Governors
Democrats Total
49
198
23
Dem Not Up
34
-
7
Dem Solid
11
167
9
Dem Lean
0
21
1
Dem Toss-up
4
10
6
Rep Toss-up
3
6
5
Rep Lean
3
11
2
Rep Solid
15
220
13
Rep Not Up
30
-
7
Republicans Total
51
237
27
Change from current
R+6
R+3
D+2

SENATE

I have taken Michigan out of the “battleground” column and put it as a “Solid Democrat” as Gary Peters is just under a double-digit lead over Terry Lynn Land.  So there are 10 races still in play,  and the GOP need to win six of them to get to 51 seats and control of the Senate.  And that is where I have them right now.  Seven races are toss-ups, so anything can happen.

I put these 10 battleground races into three buckets from the Dems’ perspective:

·        “Leading By a Nose”:  New Hampshire, North Carolina, Kansas and now Alaska are all toss-ups that are tilting toward the Dems.  Alaska is the only race to flip in the last week, as two new polls have shown Mark Begich ahead.
·        “Almost Gone”:  Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana are not lost causes yet, but they are close.
·        “Gotta Turn One”:  That leaves the Democrats needing to win one from Georgia, Iowa or Colorado, assuming they can hold the first group.  Georgia is problematic because even though Michelle Nunn is ahead (barely), Georgia is one of two states that require the leader to get 50%+ of the vote to avoid a runoff (the other is Louisiana).  With a Libertarian in the race, Nunn may win but not achieve the 50%.  And a runoff, with even lower Democrat turnout than a mid-term election, would favor Perdue.  That leaves Iowa, where Bruce Braley cannot break through against borderline nutcase Joanie Ernst, and Colorado, where Mark Udall has struggled against Corey Gardner.  All uphill battles, but not out of reach….best bet is Iowa.


SENATE BATTLEGROUND STATES (10)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Last Update
New Hamp.
D
Shaheen
Brown
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
N. Carolina
D
Hagan
Tillis
D + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Alaska
D
Begich
Sullivan
D + 1
D Toss-up
From R Lean
Kansas
R
Orman (I)
Roberts
I + 1
I Toss-up
n/c
Georgia
R
Nunn
Perdue
Even
R Toss-up
n/c
Iowa
D
Braley
Ernst
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Udall
Gardner
R + 3
R  Toss-up
From R Lean
Kentucky
R
Grimes
McConnell
R + 5
R Lean
From R TU
Arkansas
D
Pryor
Cotton
R + 5
R Lean
n/c
Louisiana
D
Landrieu
Cassidy
R + 6
R Lean
From R TU

GOVERNORS

There are 14 battleground states and fully 11 of them are toss-ups at this point.  Massachusetts is a fascinating race as Martha Coakley now trails Charlie Baker by a few points.



TIGHT GOVERNOR RACES (14)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Last Update
Rhode Island
D
Raimando
Fung
D + 7
D Lean
n/c
Kansas
R
P. Davis
Brownback
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Maine
R
Michaud
LePage
D + 2
D Toss-up
n/c
Florida
R
Crist
Scott
D + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Colorado
D
Hickenlooper
Beauprez
D + 1
D Toss-up
From R TU
Alaska
R
Walker (I)
Parnell
I + 1
D Toss-up
n/c
Connecticut
D
Malloy
Foley
Even
D Toss-up
n/c
Illinois
D
Quinn
Rauner
Even
R Toss-up
From D TU
Wisconsin
R
Burke
Walker
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Georgia
R
Carter
Deal
R + 1
R Toss-up
n/c
Mass.
D
Coakley
Baker
R - 2
R Toss-up
From D TU
Michigan
R
Schauer
Snyder
R + 2
R Toss-up
n/c
Arkansas
D
Ross
Hutchinson
R + 6
R Lean
n/c
Arizona
R
DuVal
Ducey
R + 7
R Lean
n/c

HOUSE

Not much has changed on the House front, with the GOP still on track to pick up a few seats, but not the 7+ they are targeting.  The most interesting race is New York 18, where Sean Patrick Maloney is trying to hold off Nan Heyworth, whom he defeated two years ago to win his first term.


     HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (48)



Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Experts Avg.
BTRTN
Change From
State
Party
Cand.
Cand.
D = 1, R = 8
Projection
Last Update
Mass 9
D
Keating
Chapman
2.0
D Lean
n/c
Ill 11
D
Foster
Senger
2.0
D Lean
n/c
Ariz 9
D
Sinema
Rogers
2.4
D Lean
n/c
Fla 18
D
Murphy
Domino
2.4
D Lean
n/c
Iowa 2
D
Loebsack
Miller-Meeks
2.4
D Lean
n/c
Nev 4
D
Horsford
Hardy
2.4
D Lean
From D Solid
Cal 36
D
Ruiz
Nestande
2.6
D Lean
n/c
Cal 31
R
Aguilar
Chabot
2.8
D Lean
n/c
Ill 17
D
Bustos
Schilling
2.8
D Lean
n/c
Haw 1
D
Takai
Djou
2.9
D Lean
n/c
Minn 7
D
Peterson
Westrom
3.0
D Lean
n/c
NY 18
D
Maloney
Heyworth
3.0
D Lean
n/c
Tex 23
D
Gallego
Canseco
3.0
D Lean
n/c
Iowa 1
D
Murphy
Blum
3.1
D Lean
n/c
Mass 6
D
Tierney
Tisei
3.2
D Lean
n/c
NH 2
D
Kuster
Garcia
3.3
D Lean
n/c
NY 24
D
Maffei
Maffei
3.3
D Lean
n/c
Ga 12
D
Barrow
Allen
3.5
D Lean
n/c
Maine 2
D
Cain
Polinquin
3.5
D Lean
n/c
NY 1
D
Bishop
Zeldin
3.5
D Lean
n/c
Cal 26
D
Brownley
Gorell
3.8
D Lean
n/c
Minn 8
D
Nolan
Mills
4.2
D Lean
From D TU
Ariz 1
D
Kirkpatrick
Tobin
4.3
D Toss-up
n/c
Cal 52
D
Peters
DeMaio
4.3
D Toss-up
n/c
Cal 7
D
Bera
Ose
4.3
D Lean
From D TU
Fla 26
D
Garcia
Curbilo
4.3
D Toss-up
n/c
Ill 10
D
Schneider
Dold
4.3
D Toss-up
n/c
NH 1
D
Shea-Porter
Guinta
4.3
D Toss-up
n/c
Ariz 2
D
Barber
McSally
4.4
D Toss-up
n/c
Ill 12
D
Enyart
Bost
4.4
D Toss-up
n/c
NY 11
R
Recchia
Grimm
4.3
D Toss-up
From D TU
Fla 2
R
TBD
Southerland
4.7
R Toss-up
n/c
Iowa 3
R
Appel
Young
4.7
R Toss-up
n/c
Neb 2
R
Ashford
Terry
4.7
R Toss-up
From R Lean
WV 3
D
Rahall
Jenkins
4.7
R Toss-up
From D TU
Ark 2
R
Hays
Hill
4.8
R Toss-up
From R Lean
Col 6
R
Romanoff
Coffman
5.2
R Toss-up
n/c
NJ 3
R
Belgard
MacArthur
5.5
R Lean
n/c
WV 2
R
Casey
Mooney
5.5
R Lean
n/c
Va 10
R
Foust
Comstock
5.7
R Lean
n/c
NY 21
D
Woolf
Stefanik
6.4
R Lean
n/c
Cal 21
R
Renteria
Valadao
6.6
R Lean
n/c
Ill 13
R
Callis
Davis
6.6
R Lean
n/c
Mich 1
R
Cannon
Benishek
6.6
R Lean
n/c
Mon AL
R
Lewis
Zynke
7.0
R Lean
n/c
NY 19
R
Eldridge
Gibson
7.0
R Lean
n/c
NY 23
R
Robertson
Reed
7.0
R Lean
n/c


Final predictions next Monday!