Swing State Pres

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Obama Will Win...He Said Tentatively and Unofficially (October 31, 2012)



Daily Dash 10/31
Ahead
Margin
National Polls
 Romney
-0.1
Swing States
 Obama
7 of 8
Electoral College
 Obama
303-235
Obameter
 Obama
4.6
Charisma Factor
 Romney
3.0
Senate
Dems
53-47
House
Repubs
240-195
The Presidential race is highly fluid, right?  All the swing states are within the margin of error, right?  The national polls are  deadlocked, with Romney ahead by precisely 1/10th of one percentage point.  Hurricane Sandy has thrown a wild card into the picture.  And the job report on Friday could show a substantial variance one way or the other, thereby providing (to combine a couple of campaign clichés) a game-changing November Surprise.

So, of course it’s too close to call.  Right? 

Maybe.  Maybe not.

No, I’m not making my final prediction now – that will come Monday.  But I’m starting to see the contours of the outcome.

Obama has 237 solid state electoral votes.  But the key is this:  I believe that Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada are firming up for him.  Since October 4, the night of the first disastrous debate, there have been 47 polls in these three states.  (Forty-seven!)  And Obama has been ahead in 37 of them, with 6 ties.  Romney has been ahead in only 4 out of the 47 polls!  And those three states represent 34 electoral votes….1 more than Obama needs to go over the top, because 237 + 34 = 271.

Barring a disastrous jobs report, I think Barack Obama is going to win.

Keep in mind, Obama is also ahead in Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia, but using the same methodology, they are tighter.  There have been 41 polls in those states, and Romney has been ahead in 19 of them, to 16 for Obama with 6 ties.  But, as of now, Obama is ahead in each of them

The only swing state in Romney’s column is Florida. But his lead there is dwindling:  I have it at 48.3% to 47.8% now, down from a 1.8 point margin a week ago.  And Romney is worried about Florida…how do I know?  Because today – the first full day of resumed campaigning for him post-Sandy – he is spending the entire day in Florida.  He is spending the entire day in the one swing state he is leading!  That’s not good.

Also, you may have noticed I’m giving the Democrats one more seat in the Senate, for a 53-47 projected majority (same as the current Senate).  This is due to the Indiana Senate race, which became the second “sure Republican win” race to get turned on its head by an idiotic comment about rape by the Republican candidate.  First, it was Missouri challenger Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comment in July (snatching apparent defeat from the jaws of almost certain victory), and now Richard Mourdock’s comment that pregnancy from rape was “God’s intent.”  Mourdock is the extremist who defeated long-time Senator Richard Lugar – an incumbent so strong in 2006 that the Democrat’s chose not to oppose him – in the primary.  Mourdock was up five before the comment, but he’s losing now.

I’ve also updated the House, and it looks like 240-195, almost identical to the current House composition, which is 242-193.  Amazing, as I’ve noted before….la plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, across our government.  It looks like:  same President, same Senate, same House, same Majority and Minority Leaders, same Speaker, same 9 Supreme Court justices.


 DAILY DASH

10/25
10/26
10/27
10/28
10/29
10/30
10/31









National Polls
Obama
47.3
47.3
47.3
47.7
47.7
47.5
47.4

Romney
47.6
47.5
47.4
47.2
47.5
47.5
47.5

Difference
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.5
0.3
0.0
-0.1









Obameter

5.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
2.6
4.7
4.6









Charisma Factor

-2.3
-3.7
-3.7
-3.7
-3.8
-3.0
-3.0









Swing States
Electoral Votes
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ob +/-
Ohio
18
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
Nevada
6
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
Wisconsin
10
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
Iowa
6
-0.5
2.0
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.5
Colorado
9
-4.0
0.8
0.8
2.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
Virginia
13
-2.0
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.3
0.7
0.7
New Hampshire
4
1.0
2.0
2.0
0.3
0.3
2.5
2.5
Florida
29
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-1.2
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6









Electoral College
Solid Obama
237
237
237
237
237
237
237
Projection
Swing Obama
38
66
66
66
66
66
66

Obama
275
303
303
303
303
303
303










Solid Romney
206
206
206
206
206
206
206

Swing Romney
57
29
29
29
29
29
29

Romney
263
235
235
235
235
235
235









Senate
Democrat
52
52
52
52
52
53
53
Projection
Republican
48
48
48
48
48
47
47









Key Senate Races
Dem-Rep
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
D +/-
Missouri
McCaskill-Akin
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
Ohio
Brown-Martel
6
5
5
3
4
6
6
Connecticut
Murphy-McMahon
4
4
4
4
6
6
6
Pennsylvania
Casey-Smith
8
5
5
5
4
6
6
Wisconsin
Baldwin-Thompson
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
Virginia
Kaine-Allen
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
Arizona
Carmona-Flake
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
Massachusetts
Warren-Brown
6
6
6
6
4
4
4
Montana
Tester-Rehberg
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
North Dakota
Heitkamp-Berg
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-4
-4
Nevada
Berkeley-Heller
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-1
-1
Indiana
Donnelley-Mourdock
-5
-5
0
0
0
4
4









House
Democrat
200
200
200
200
200
200
195
Projection
Republican
235
235
235
235
235
235
240