Swing State Pres

Monday, June 4, 2012

2012 04 04 Post Wisconsin

OK, you heard it here first.  I was watching CNN last night – perhaps the only person in America following the Wisconsin primary – and it occurred to me that these folks are manic about calling every contest as soon as they have enough data to project it with confidence…but they never “call” the campaign itself!  

So I am filling this void.  I am formally, officially, calling the race.  OK, I’m not a network.  Nor a cable station.  I’m not even a blog.  But, I’m calling it.  Breaking News!!!  Mitt Romney IS the Republican nominee for President in 2012.  

Rick Santorum thinks it’s “halftime.”  I think not.  Sure, we may be at roughly the halfway point of the delegate count, but it’s over.  Stick a fork in it.  

Romney completed a neat trifecta, taking Wisconsin by 5, Maryland by 20, and DC by, um, 58.  And even better news for him, they are all mostly winner-take-all states, so Mitt took 85 delegates to Santorum’s 6, zooming past the 650 mark while Santorum stalls, at least for now, at under 300.  

Santorum may win Pennsylvania.  He may win Texas.  At some point he’ll be awarded Missouri.  But make no mistake, it’s Romney versus Obama.  Obama even mentioned Mitt Romney by name yesterday in a rousing campaign kick-off speech (and that is what it was).  What’s the new expression?  Game on!!!

Games

Eric Schrier crushed me in the forecasting game in Wisconsin.  He projected 44-38-8-6 and wow, that was just about right on (actual:  43-38-12-6).  And he always thought I was at good forecasting.  Nice job by my old boss!

Tom Cox would have beat me, but he had 10% going to University of Wisconsin Athletic Director Barry Alvarez.  Some advice:  don’t bet on Tom’s fantasy baseball team.

Questions

What I’ve heard from those who responded is that Santorum is not “next in line” in 2016 (or 2020), that somehow the GOP will come to its senses and tack to the middle in the next election.  Larry even sees another Bush (Jeb) – Clinton (Hillary) brawl in 2016.

All that may be true.  But I thought the same thing in 2008, when McCain went down by pretending to be something he wasn’t.  And that was BEFORE the Tea Party!

Steve says you know the campaign is over when articles start talking about potential VP’s.  So…who do you think will be Mitt’s VP?

Map

Attached is the latest map, updated for the Romney trifecta (though it is hard to see DC).  You can see at a glance that the Santorum threat in the Midwest fizzled, as Romney made the stand he needed to make in Illinois and Wisconsin.

Song

Some of you may remember the late, great “Dandy” Don Meredith, the ex-Cowboys quarterback who achieved greater fame as part of the Monday Night Football announcing team.  At some point during the game, when it was clear it was over, Don would begin to croon an old Willie Nelson country song.  Rather than parody, I’ll let this one speak for itself (with one tiny amendment!).

Turn out the lights…the party's over
They say that…all good things must end
Call it tonight…the party's over
And tomorrow 2016 starts…the same old thing again


Of course I’ll be back around April 24 to discuss the big northeast primaries, including Pennsylvania.  In the meantime I’ll look at the Senate races, to open the discussion of whether the Republicans will claim it.  Here’s a hint:  it will be harder than you might think!

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