It was 99
years and 11 months ago that the world, as they knew it, changed forever. It
started with an incident – the assassination of the Archduke of Austro-Hungary
– that quickly mushroomed, through a series of interlocking alliances, into
what we now call World War I. The
Germans rolled through Belgium ,
chased a retreating French army in northern France ,
before bogging down east of Paris along the Seine . The guns of
August thus did not result in a quick German victory, and both sides settled into
the defining war of attrition. Over the
next four years, a stunning 16 million were killed, before the Germans
surrendered at Compiègne.
In comparison
today’s world seems tamer, and at the same time, more complex. And yet, the world does seem aflame in July,
2014, and that month’s “incidents,” the downing of a passenger jet over warring
Ukraine, the killing of three young Israeli men in the West Bank, along with the
torrent of children from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador across the U.S.
southern border, the march of ISIS across Iraq toward Baghdad, and the
continued bloodshed in Syria, make us wonder whether we are on the precipice of
some broader conflagration.
It could be
that the very thing that makes our modern world more complex also acts as a
peculiar obstacle to repeating 1914. Far
from “interlocking alliances,” we find in many of these battles that our
enemies on one front are our allies in another.
We need Russia to
help blunt the expansion of nuclear arms in Iran Iraq ’s
support against ISIS . We need Egypt
to help broker peace in Gaza
President
Obama is, absurdly, held accountable by his opponents for the messiness of the
world. He is expected to counter these
vexing foreign policy issues with “strength” and “leadership” despite the
murkiness of those terms and the widespread opposition to the use of force
(even if force was a viable solution).
His responses have indeed been forceful, if more nuanced than many would
like. For example, Obama has advocated
the stiffest of sanctions against Russia
from the start of the Ukraine
crisis, but it is Europe – with ten times the trading volume with Russia than the U.S.
Thus the
gradual recovery that we saw in President Obama’s approval rating in the spring
has receded, and the months to Election Day dwindle. Even with an ever-strengthening economy, it
is hard to imagine Obama’s “coattails” making much of a positive difference
now. But I still foresee the Democrats
holding the Senate and the GOP holding the House, likely picking up a few seats
in each chamber, but far from the disaster many foresee. The GOP is a very unpopular entity right now,
and their inaction on the border crisis is yet another example of an issue
where they are out of step with the mainstream (gun control, women’s rights,
gay rights, etc.) and even unable to assemble a majority within their own party. And the gridlock label is clearly more
affixed to them than to the Democrats. That
will turn Election Day into a very hollow win for the GOP, with many mutterings
on November 5th about what might have been.
ECONOMETER
The
Econometer soared to a new level, +72.5, and each measure now is improved
versus Election Day 2012. Consumer
confidence rose substantially, and the first reading of second quarter GDP
showed a robust +4.0% growth. More than
200,000 jobs were created for the fifth straight month. All in all, the economy could be a winning
issue come fall for the Democrats, particularly if household incomes respond
and real estate continues to surge.
|
Econometer
|
Election Day 2012
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
4-Aug
|
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
52.5
|
56.0
|
59.0
|
72.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
6.3
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
6.2
|
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
82.3
|
84.8
|
85.2
|
90.9
|
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.74
|
3.75
|
3.77
|
3.69
|
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
16,308
|
16,617
|
16,882
|
16,990
|
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
0.1
|
-1.0
|
-2.9
|
4.0
|
PRESIDENT
OBAMA APPROVAL RATING
As
mentioned, President Obama gets no love for the economy, and takes the hit for
a world gone amok. His net approval dropped
about a point in the month, not a big change, but it is hard to see the
catalyst for improvement in the months ahead.
|
Obama
Approval Rating
|
Election Day 2012
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
4-Aug
|
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
44.5
|
45.6
|
43.6
|
43.5
|
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
51.4
|
50.5
|
52.2
|
52.8
|
|
Net
|
2.2
|
-6.9
|
-4.9
|
-8.6
|
-9.3
|
GENERIC
BALLOT
On the
other hand, the Democrats have a small but growing lead in the generic ballot,
certainly a strong leading indicator for the midterms.
|
Generic
Ballot
|
Election Day 2012
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
4-Aug
|
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
38.0
|
42.2
|
41.0
|
44.8
|
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
40.0
|
41.5
|
39.1
|
42.3
|
|
Net
|
0.3
|
-2.0
|
0.7
|
1.9
|
2.5
|
OBAMACARE
There were
only two polls this past month on Obamacare, a measure in and of itself of how
far this issue has fallen off the radar screen.
By contrast, there were 13 such polls in March. Those two polls show that the short-term die
is cast for Obamacare, as the majority of the nation continues to disapprove of
it, no matter how successful it appears to be.
That is, far fewer people are uninsured and health costs in general are
rising far less rapidly. We’ll see soon
the growth rate in 2015 insurance premiums, the next major data point in this
story.
|
Obamacare
|
Election Day 2012
|
4-May
|
8-Jun
|
6-Jul
|
4-Aug
|
|
For/Favor
|
40.0
|
41.0
|
40.1
|
41.2
|
39.5
|
|
Oppose/Against
|
50.8
|
50.0
|
51.7
|
53.8
|
58.0
|
|
Net
|
-10.8
|
-9.0
|
-11.6
|
-12.6
|
-18.5
|
2016
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
Hillary
Clinton took the slightest of hits in July, perhaps due to a bit of stumbling
on her part on the issue of personal wealth.
The quote: "They don't
see me as part of the problem…because we pay ordinary income tax, unlike a lot
of people who are truly well off, not to name names; and we've done it through
dint of hard work." Note the slight
uptick for the champion of the liberal left (and noted anti-elite) Elizabeth
Warren.
|
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014
|
2014
|
2014
|
|
|
Jan-Oct
|
Nov/Dec
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Jun/Jul
|
|
|
59
|
67
|
67
|
69
|
63
|
|
Biden
|
13
|
11
|
10
|
13
|
10
|
|
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
10
|
|
Cuomo
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
O'Malley
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
|
Schweitzer
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
A/O or N/A
|
16
|
10
|
11
|
6
|
11
|
2016
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
Remarkably,
the GOP race (if you can call it that at this early stage) got even tighter. A grand total of 5 points separate the top 9
candidates. Rick Perry is rising on the
strength of the border/immigration crisis, and Rand Paul shows the slightest
slippage. And the big question
continues: will Jeb make a run?
|
|
2013
|
2013
|
2014
|
2014
|
2014
|
|
|
Jan-Oct
|
Nov/Dec
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Jun/Jul
|
|
Paul
|
13
|
14
|
12
|
14
|
11
|
|
Huckabee
|
13
|
13
|
14
|
12
|
11
|
|
Christie
|
16
|
19
|
12
|
11
|
11
|
|
Bush
|
12
|
10
|
12
|
13
|
10
|
|
Ryan
|
14
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
9
|
|
Perry
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
5
|
9
|
|
Cruz
|
10
|
12
|
8
|
7
|
8
|
|
Rubio
|
14
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
|
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
|
Santorum
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
Jindal
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
Other/N.A.
|
2
|
5
|
9
|
12
|
15
|
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