Swing State Pres

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Election 2014 Dashboard: New Weekly Update of Senate, House and Governor Races

Welcome to the BTRTN Election Dashboard, you summary guide to the state of the elections.  We are now four weeks from Election Day, and I will be updating this dashboard each week on Tuesday.  As of now, as you can see in the chart below, the projections are a mixed bag, with the big news being, barring changes in the next month, the Republicans taking control of the Senate by a 52-48 margin.  But I am still foreseeing only a two seat pick-up in the House, and the Democrats actually picking up three state houses. 


Senate
House
Governors
Democrats Total
48
199
24
Dem Not Up
34
-
7
Dem Solid
10
170
8
Dem Lean
3
21
1
Dem Toss-up
1
8
8
Rep Toss-up
1
3
6
Rep Lean
6
16
0
Rep Solid
15
217
13
Rep Not Up
30
-
7
Republicans Total
52
236
26
Change from current
R+5
R+2
D + 3

The “battleground” races, those that are either leaning or toss-ups in the chart, are detailed in the charts that follow.


SENATE BATTLEGROUND RACES (11)


Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
New Hampshire
D
Shaheen
Brown
Dem +6
D Lean
Michigan
D
Peters
Land
Dem +5
D Lean
North Carolina
D
Hagan
Tillis
Dem +4
D Lean
Kansas
R
Orman (I)
Roberts
Ind +3
IND Toss-up
Iowa
D
Braley
Ernst
Rep +3
R Toss-up
Alaska
D
Begich
Sullivan
Rep +4
R Lean
Colorado
D
Udall
Gardner
Rep +4
R Lean
Louisiana
D
Landrieu
Cassidy
Rep +4
R Lean
Arkansas
D
Pryor
Cotton
Rep +4
R Lean
Georgia
R
Nunn
Perdue
Rep +5
R Lean
Kentucky
R
Grimes
McConnell
Rep +5
R Lean







TIGHEST GOVERNOR RACES (16)


Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Poll
BTRTN
State
Party
Candidate
Candidate
Margin
Projection
Kansas
R
P. Davis
Brownback
D + 4
D Lean
Arizona
R
DuVal
Ducey
D + 2
D Toss-up
Hawaii
D
Ige
Aiona
D + 2
D Toss-up
Maine
R
Michaud
LePage
D + 2
D Toss-up
Colorado
D
Hickenlooper
Beauprez
D + 1
D Toss-up
Arkansas
D
Ross
Hutchinson
D + 1
D Toss-up
Connecticut
D
Malloy
Foley
D + 1
D Toss-up
Mass.
D
Coakley
Baker
Even
D Toss-up
Rhode Island
D
Raimando
Fung
n/a
D Toss-up
Alaska
R
Walker (I)
Parnell
n/a
R Toss-up
Florida
R
Crist
Scott
Even
R Toss-up
Wisconsin
R
Burke
Walker
Even
R Toss-up
Illinois
D
Quinn
Rauner
R + 1
R Toss-up
Georgia
R
Carter
Deal
R + 2
R Toss-up
Michigan
R
Schauer
Snyder
R + 2
R Toss-up







HOUSE BATTLEGROUND RACES (48)


Incumb.
Dem
Rep
Expert Avg.
BTRTN
State
Party
Cand.
Cand.
(1=D, 8=R)
Projection
Conn 5
D
Esty
Greenberg
2.0
D Lean
Iowa 1
D
Murphy
Blum
2.2
D Lean
Haw 1
D
Takai
Djou
2.2
D Lean
Ariz 9
D
Sinema
Rogers
2.4
D Lean
Cal 36
D
Ruiz
Nestande
2.6
D Lean
NY 24
D
Maffei
Maffei
2.6
D Lean
Fla 18
D
Murphy
Domino
2.7
D Lean
Cal 31
R
Aguilar
Chabot
2.8
D Lean
Ill 17
D
Bustos
Schilling
2.8
D Lean
NY 18
D
Maloney
Heyworth
2.8
D Lean
Minn 7
D
Peterson
Westrom
3.0
D Lean
NH 2
D
Kuster
Garcia
3.0
D Lean
Tex 23
D
Gallego
Canseco
3.0
D Lean
Ga 12
D
Barrow
Allen
3.2
D Lean
Mass 6
D
Tierney
Tisei
3.2
D Lean
Maine 2
D
Cain
Polinquin
3.3
D Lean
NY 18
D
Bishop
Zeldin
3.6
D Lean
Cal 26
D
Brownley
Gorell
3.8
D Lean
Cal 7
D
Bera
Ose
3.9
D Lean
NY 11
R
Recchia
Grimm
3.9
D Lean
Minn 8
D
Nolan
Mills
4.0
D Lean
Fla 26
D
Garcia
Curbilo
4.2
D Toss-up
Ariz 1
D
Kirkpatrick
Tobin
4.3
D Toss-up
Ariz 2
D
Barber
McSally
4.3
D Toss-up
Cal 52
D
Peters
DeMaio
4.3
D Toss-up
Ill 12
D
Enyart
Bost
4.3
D Toss-up
Ill 10
D
Schneider
Dold
4.3
D Toss-up
NH 1
D
Shea-Porter
Guinta
4.3
D Toss-up
WV 3
D
Rahall
Jenkins
4.3
D Toss-up
Fla 26
R
TBD
Southerland
4.7
R Toss-up
Iowa 3
R
Appel
Young
4.7
R Toss-up
Col 6
R
Romanoff
Coffman
5.0
R Toss-up
Neb 2
R
Ashford
Terry
5.3
R Toss-up
NJ 3
R
Belgard
MacArthur
5.5
R Lean
Va 10
R
Foust
Comstock
5.7
R Lean
WV 2
R
Casey
Mooney
5.7
R Lean
Mich 1
R
Cannon
Benishek
5.8
R Lean
Ark 2
R
Hays
Hill
6.0
R Lean
NY 21
D
Woolf
Stefanik
6.0
R Lean
Ill 13
R
Callis
Davis
6.4
R Lean
Cal 21
R
Renteria
Valadao
6.6
R Lean
NY 23
R
Robertson
Reed
6.6
R Lean
NY 19
R
Eldridge
Gibson
6.6
R Lean
Mich 8
R
Schertzing
Bishop
6.8
R Lean
Mich 7
R
Byrnes
Walberg
6.8
R Lean
Penn 6
R
Trivedi
Costello
6.8
R Lean
Mon AL
R
Lewis
Zynke
7.0
R Lean
Nev 3
R
Bilbray-Cohn
Heck
7.0
R Lean


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