The headline of our latest mid-term “snapshot” is that the
basic dynamic remains the same: the
Democrats have an excellent chance to take over the House in November, and an
outside chance to do the same in the Senate.
We have new proprietary BTRTN models that calculate the odds of the Democrats taking over each
branch of Congress. These odds will be
updated frequently and sit atop our “right hand column” (as you can see). If Election Day were today – and it is
important to note this is not a
prediction, just a snapshot of
where things stand -- here are the latest odds of the Democrats taking over the House
and the Senate in the 2018 mid-terms.
House
|
Senate
|
76%
|
16%
|
SENATE
The outlook for the Dems in the Senate has changed only
marginally since our last update roughly a month ago. We have changed only two race ratings, both
due to more recent polling, and they offset.
BTRTN RATING CHANGES
|
||
7/14/18
|
8/20/18
|
|
Florida
|
D
Toss Up
|
R
Toss Up
|
Indiana
|
R
Toss Up
|
D
Toss Up
|
Despite the low odds, if Election Day were today, the Dems
would actually pick up a seat, bringing the Senate to the tightest of possible
splits, 50/50, with Vice President Mike Pence thus playing a very active role
in the proceedings, breaking partisan ties in the GOP’s favor. And if John McCain continues to be absent,
this would put the GOP in the unusual position of being the majority party with
minority representation.
We have the Democrats flipping three seats as of now: Nevada, Arizona
and Tennessee. But the GOP would hold on to the “majority”
by flipping two of their own: Florida and North Dakota.
Why are the Dems’ takeover odds so low – at 16% - if the
current snapshot has them only one seat away?
Essentially, it’s because there are so many “toss-up” races -- six of
them polling within the margin of error -- and we have the Dems a nose ahead in
four of them. To have them sweep so many
close races – and they would need one more – would be quite a task. The Dems are already doing well to be competitive
in Tennessee, Texas, Mississippi, which would have been unthinkable six months
ago. And those 16% odds would be less than 1% if Alabama was still in GOP hands
(thank Roy Moore for that).
Of course, it’s still very early and, in addition to those six
“toss-up” races, there are six more we classify as “leans” (for a total of 12
truly competitive races). We are nearing
the end of primary season, and thus the fields are almost set. But we have whole campaigns to run, “macro”
shocks to consider, Donald Trump to contend with, money to raise, ground games
to execute – eighty days and counting.
But as of now, here is the race-by-race rundown. The 12 races that we consider to be truly competitive
are in the middle of the chart, between the two purple lines. Of course, these designations could change in
the coming months and more (or fewer) races might be deemed “competitive.”
SENATE SNAPSHOT
|
||||||||
State
|
Inc. Party
|
Incumbent
|
Democrat
|
GOP
|
2012 Margin
|
2016 Pres Margin
|
Recent Polls Avg
|
BTRTN Rating
|
CAL
|
D
|
Feinstein
|
Feinstein
|
de Leon (D)
|
D + 24
|
D + 30
|
D
Solid
|
|
VER
|
I
|
Sanders
|
Sanders
|
Paige
or Zupan
|
D + 46
|
D + 26
|
D/I Solid
|
|
NY
|
D
|
Gillebrand
|
Gillebrand
|
Farley
|
D + 45
|
D + 23
|
D
Solid
|
|
HAW
|
D
|
Hirono
|
Hirono
|
Curtis
|
D + 26
|
D + 32
|
D
Solid
|
|
MARY
|
D
|
Cardin
|
Cardin
|
Campbell
|
D + 28
|
D + 26
|
D
Solid
|
|
RI
|
D
|
Whitehouse
|
Whitehouse
|
D + 30
|
D + 16
|
D
Solid
|
||
DEL
|
D
|
Carper
|
Carper
|
D + 37
|
D + 11
|
D
Solid
|
||
MASS
|
D
|
Warren
|
Warren
|
D + 8
|
D + 27
|
D
Solid
|
||
WASH
|
D
|
Cantwell
|
Cantwell
|
D + 20
|
D + 16
|
D
Solid
|
||
NJ
|
D
|
Menendez
|
Menendez
|
Hugin
|
D + 18
|
D + 14
|
D
Solid
|
|
MN
|
D
|
Klobuchar
|
Klobuchar
|
Newberger
|
D + 34
|
D + 2
|
D
Solid
|
|
CONN
|
D
|
Murphy
|
Murphy
|
Corey
|
D + 12
|
D + 14
|
D
Solid
|
|
MAINE
|
I
|
King
|
King (I)
|
Ringelstein (D), Brakey (R)
|
D + 22
|
D + 3
|
I Solid (D)
|
|
MICH
|
D
|
Stabenow
|
Stabenow
|
James
|
D + 21
|
R +
0.2
|
D
Solid
|
|
NMEX
|
D
|
Heinrich
|
Heinrich
|
Rich
|
D + 6
|
D + 8
|
D
Solid
|
|
VA
|
D
|
Kaine
|
Kaine
|
Stewart
|
D + 6
|
D + 5
|
D
Solid
|
|
PA
|
D
|
Casey
|
Casey
|
Barletta
|
D + 9
|
R +
1
|
D
Solid
|
|
WISC
|
D
|
Baldwin
|
Baldwin
|
Vukmir
|
D + 5
|
R +
1
|
D
Solid
|
|
OHIO
|
D
|
Brown
|
Brown
|
Renacci
|
D + 5
|
R +
8
|
D
Solid
|
|
WV
|
D
|
Manchin
|
Manchin
|
Morrisey
|
D + 25
|
R +
42
|
D +
12
|
D
Lean
|
MN (SP)
|
D
|
T. Smith*
|
T. Smith
|
Housley
|
D + 10
|
D + 2
|
D +
9
|
D
Lean
|
MONT
|
D
|
Tester
|
Tester
|
Rosendale
|
D + 4
|
R +
20
|
D +
8
|
D
Lean
|
ARIZ
|
R
|
Flake (ret.)
|
Sinema
|
McSally
|
R + 4
|
R +
4
|
D +
4
|
D
Lean
|
IND
|
D
|
Donnelley
|
Donnelley
|
Braun
|
D + 6
|
R +
19
|
D +
5
|
D
TU
|
NEV
|
R
|
Heller
|
Rosen
|
Heller
|
R + 1
|
D + 2
|
D +
1
|
D
TU
|
TENN
|
R
|
Corker (ret.)
|
Bredesen
|
Blackburn
|
R + 35
|
R +
26
|
D +
1
|
D
TU
|
MO
|
D
|
McCaskill
|
McCaskill
|
Hawley
|
D + 16
|
R +
19
|
Even
|
D
TU
|
FLA
|
D
|
Nelson
|
Nelson
|
Scott
|
D + 13
|
R +
1
|
R +
2
|
R
TU
|
NDAK
|
D
|
Heitkamp
|
Heitkamp
|
Cramer
|
D + 1
|
R +
36
|
R +
5
|
R
TU
|
TEXAS
|
R
|
Cruz
|
O'Rourke
|
Cruz
|
R + 17
|
R +
9
|
R +
6
|
R
Lean
|
MS (SP)
|
R
|
Hyde-Smith*
|
Espy
|
Hyde-Smith
|
R + 22
|
R +
18
|
R +
2
|
R
Lean
|
MS
|
R
|
Wicker
|
Baria
|
Wicker
|
R + 17
|
R +
18
|
R
Solid
|
|
NEB
|
R
|
Fischer
|
Raybould
|
Fischer
|
R + 16
|
R +
25
|
R
Solid
|
|
UTAH
|
R
|
Hatch (ret.)
|
Wilson
|
Romney
|
R + 35
|
R +
18
|
R
Solid
|
|
WYO
|
R
|
Barrasso
|
Trauner
|
Barrasso
|
R + 54
|
R +
46
|
R
Solid
|
|
* Tina Smith replaced Al Franken,
who resigned in 2018
|
||||||||
** Cindy Hyde-Smith replaced
Cochran, who resigned in 2018
|
||||||||
HOUSE
The Democrats continue to be in strong shape. The latest generic ballot – the single biggest
predictor of House seat gains and losses – continues to show a commanding
Democratic lead, at +4.5%. Our BTRTN
models, which have been highly predictive in the past, and use the generic
ballot as a key variable, indicate a +37 seat gain for the Democrats, and a 76%
chance of taking over the House, by a 230-205 margin.
Using an average the six rating services (Cook, Sabato,
CNN, RCP, IE and Daily Kos), we find that there are 92 competitive races among the total of
435. Of these 92, 80 of them are held by
GOP incumbents (including two vacancies that were held by Republicans). The Democrats only need to flip 23 of them –
or, more precisely, net a +23 out of the 92, to take control of the House.
Here is a list of those 92 seats, which, as noted, split
80/12 for the GOP. We’ve also noted the
25 GOP districts that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, as well as our current
BTRTN race ratings, which are ranked from most likely to be won by the
Democrats to the least likely. You can
use this chart to determine which districts you can focus on with your
volunteer efforts.
(And finally, a shout out to Ed Case, a fellow Williams
College graduate, who just won the Democratic primary for Hawaii’s 1st
District. Ed represented that district
from 2002-2007, and should easily win the general election in November to
return to the seat.)
State
|
Dist.
|
Incumbent Party
|
GOP districts won by HRC in '16
|
BTRTN Number Rating
as of 8/18/18
|
194 D - 236 R
|
92
|
80 R / D 12
|
25
|
|
New Jersey
|
2
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
5
|
Vacant
|
HRC
|
D Likely
|
California
|
7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
New Jersey
|
5
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
6
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Likely
|
Minnesota
|
7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
8
|
R
|
D Likely
|
|
Florida
|
7
|
D
|
D Likely
|
|
Arizona
|
1
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Nevada
|
4
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Florida
|
27
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Nevada
|
3
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
New Hampshire
|
1
|
D
|
D Lean
|
|
Virginia
|
10
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Arizona
|
2
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
New Jersey
|
11
|
R
|
D Lean
|
|
California
|
49
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Pennsylvania
|
7
|
R
|
HRC
|
D Lean
|
Pennsylvania
|
17
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
Michigan
|
11
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
California
|
39
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Iowa
|
1
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Minnesota
|
1
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
Minnesota
|
2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Minnesota
|
8
|
D
|
D TU
|
|
Washington
|
8
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Kentucky
|
6
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Texas
|
23
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
10
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
25
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
48
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Colorado
|
6
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Florida
|
26
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
New Jersey
|
7
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
New York
|
19
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
New York
|
22
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Illinois
|
12
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Iowa
|
3
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Kansas
|
2
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Minnesota
|
3
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Virginia
|
7
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Illinois
|
6
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
North Carolina
|
9
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Texas
|
7
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
California
|
45
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Kansas
|
3
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Michigan
|
8
|
R
|
D TU
|
|
Texas
|
32
|
R
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Pennsylvania
|
1
|
D
|
HRC
|
D TU
|
Maine
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Wisconsin
|
1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Ohio
|
12
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Ohio
|
1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Utah
|
4
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Virginia
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Washington
|
5
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
West Virginia
|
3
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Nebraska
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Arkansas
|
2
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
North Carolina
|
13
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Montana
|
1
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
New Jersey
|
3
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
New York
|
11
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Virginia
|
5
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Georgia
|
6
|
R
|
R Lean
|
|
Florida
|
16
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Illinois
|
13
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Illinois
|
14
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
California
|
21
|
R
|
HRC
|
R Likely
|
Michigan
|
7
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
New York
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
10
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Washington
|
3
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
18
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Georgia
|
7
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
New York
|
24
|
R
|
HRC
|
R Likely
|
Pennsylvania
|
16
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Texas
|
21
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
California
|
4
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
15
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
25
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Indiana
|
2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Michigan
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Ohio
|
14
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Wisconsin
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
California
|
50
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Florida
|
6
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Michigan
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
North Carolina
|
2
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
S. Carolina
|
1
|
R
|
R Likely
|
|
Texas
|
31
|
R
|
R Likely
|
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