BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta

Here are Tom’s official BTRTN’s predictions (not a snapshot!)….but he reserves the right to come back tomorrow at 5 PM ET if the final flurry of polls released tomorrow morning reveal any material shifts.  (We have now looked at today's -- Tuesday's -- polls and will make no changes.)

It takes an awful lot of chutzpah for anyone to make predictions about the 2020 elections.  After all, we were among those who got it wrong in 2016 (ugh).  And, the 2020 races are chock full of “toss ups,” in which we make calls with one hand on a calculator and the other on a Ouija board.  There’s also the matter of Donald Trump, who has a terrible tendency to render precedents somewhat moot (remember the “Blue Wall”?).  And most of all, we live in the age of COVID-19, where norms have been shattered, turning the election process underway in the United States on its head.  Remarkably, over 97 million Americans have already voted, 62 million of them by mail, presaging record turnout, with difficult to ascertain implications.

But indeed we do have an awful lot of chutzpah, because our predictions follow below.  We will forecast the winner of each and every one of the 56 states and districts that have distinct Electoral College votes for the presidency, and all 35 Senate, 435 House and 11 gubernatorial races – 537 separate races in total.  First we’ll summarize the headlines, where we came out on those crucial swing state races, how many seats will flip in the House, and then follow with charts that devote a single line to each of those 537 races.

(And if you prefer to watch these predictions unfold in video format, it is up on YouTube right now:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAfg8cV_b_0  .)

Why should you listen to us?  We admit we missed the boat in 2016; we were among the many who predicted, with historic inaccuracy, that Hillary Clinton would win.  It’s hard to put that aside.  But apart from that, when a small set of crucial states went the wrong way, we have a pretty good track record.

Year	Total Elections			House Gains
	Total Races	# Correct	% Correct	BTRTN Prediction	Actual Outcome
2008	91	89	98%	n/a	n/a
2010	471	453	96%	R + 58	R + 63
2012	524	502	96%	D + 4	D + 8
2014	507	488	96%	R + 10	R + 13
2016	537	519	97%	D + 5	D + 6
2017	8	6	75%	n/a	n/a
2018	506	484	96%	D + 38	D + 41
Total	2644	2541	96%	n/a	n/a

We started by getting every Senate race right in the 2008 elections and all but two states in the Obama-McCain presidential race.  Out of more than 2,500 elections since then (now including all presidential, House, Senate and gubernatorial races), we've been right 96% of the time.  And we’ve been nearly spot on in forecasting gains and losses in the House.  Sure, many of these races have not been terribly competitive; but a bunch have, and we hold our record up against those of our more famous (and for profit) brethren.

One note:  if any reader wants our handy, dandy semi-famous spreadsheets that allow you to easily track Election Night (and beyond) outcomes for each of the presidential, Senate, House and Governor races (and see how we are doing against our predictions), just email us and we will send them along to you:  borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com.

On to our fearless predictions…

THE ODDS

First, our final “odds” which lead to the predictions.  These odds are derived from our various BTRTN simulation models, which in turn are fed polling information and massaged based on other factors, including resources, history, trends and judgment.

BTRTN ELECTION DASHBOARD
BTRTN Election Odds of Democrats' Winning/Controlling
President	Senate	House	Governors
88%	71%	99%	n/a
351 Biden/187 Trump	50 DEM/48 GOP (D + 3, 2 runoffs)	251 DEM/184 GOP (D + 18)	GOP 27/DEM 23 (GOP + 1)

 

THE PREDICTIONS

And here is the answer: the Democrats will win the trifecta, emerging from this election with control of each of the White House, Senate and House.

·        Joe Biden will become our 46^th President by a comfortable margin, earning 351 electoral votes to 187 for Donald Trump.  Trump will become the first incumbent to be defeated in his bid for reelection in 28 years, since Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in 1992. 

·        Biden will have a Democratic Senate to work with, as the Democrats squeak out a 50-seat majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris presiding over her former colleagues and able to break ties with a deciding vote as needed.  But there will be two run-off elections in January that will each be very close. 

·        Not surprisingly, the Democrats will maintain control of the House of Representatives, adding 18 seats to extend their impressive majority to an overwhelming one, 251 to 184. 

·       The GOP will only be able to point to one consolation prize; they will win the only state house that flips in this election, thereby increasing their Governor majority to 27 to 23.

We make no particular statement at this point about when Biden will actually be declared the winner, or what Trump will do when confronted by a call by the AP and the networks.  There is some possibility that Biden will be declared the winner in the wee hours of Election Night because, by our calculations, he does not need the “slow counting” states to win.  But it is entirely possible, and more likely, that things will drag on because even some of the “faster counting” states will be very closely contested.

We are also not going to do any analysis of what the “red mirage” might look like – the very real notion that Trump will lead in the early Election Night results because more GOP voters are voting in person, votes that will be counted first.  Suffice to say, that red mirage will likely happen; it is common for many close races to follow that pattern, since largely Democratic cities take longer to count that rural red areas.  The in-person effect will enhance that tendency even further.  Be prepared and don’t panic.

THE PRESIDENCY

Joe Biden will win not only because he flips the Big Three – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – but several other “toss up” states as well, including another big one, Florida.

Biden enters Election Day with a strong base of 20 “Solid Blue” states, comprising 216 electoral votes.  Add to that a Biden win in Minnesota, a state that Hillary Clinton won, and that Trump has contested and will make reasonably close, which will bring Biden to 226.

Biden had led in the polling by a substantial margin in Michigan for some time, putting it almost out of reach.  More recently, Wisconsin, doubtless driven by an epic COVID-19 surge, has also see Biden expand his lead.  Biden has leads in both Michigan and Wisconsin by about +8 points.  He will win both, although neither very quickly…Wisconsin does not begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day itself, while Michigan does not count until the day before Election Day.

Pennsylvania has been Trump’s true focus.  There was really only one path for him to defeat Biden:  win every toss up state – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – and, assuming he performed that miracle (since he trailed nominally in most of them), then win Pennsylvania.  But the polls have largely been in Biden’s favor in Pennsylvania despite the onslaught of Trump rallies.  Of  the33 polls conducted since October 1 in Pennsylvania, Biden has led in of 31 of them, with one tie and one Trump lead (of only +2 points); on average Biden has led by +5 points.

That is all Biden needs to win – adding the Big Three’s 46 electoral votes to the 226 he had, gets him to 272.

We also predict Biden will take Nevada and Maine’s 2nd district, both of which had been leaning to Biden).  

That leaves the seven swing states, and they were exceedingly difficult to predict.  We see them breaking as follows:  Biden taking Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, and Trump taking Texas, Ohio and Iowa.  These seven states amount to a whopping 133 electoral votes.  That means that if Biden took all of them, he would have pulled off a true landslide, with 413 electoral votes to Trump’s 125.  But if Trump swept them, Biden would have achieved only a narrow victory, 280 – 258. 

And that is the true range of possible outcomes we have before us.  If Biden wins a landslide, it would completely undercut Trump’s potential challenges.  But if Biden wins by the narrower margin, then we will see Trump in court contesting Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, enough to flip the election.

And we should grant at least the small possibility (which we have pegged at 12% odds) that Trump could win.  His only path is to sweep the toss-ups and take Pennsylvania, all of which is exceedingly unlikely.

The one we truly agonized over is Florida.  We are awaiting any new polls that might shed some late-breaking insight.  Biden is leading very slightly in the polls (+2), but history has taught us (2016 presidential race, 2018 governor and Senate) that Florida Democratic polling leads on Election Day do not translate into Democratic wins, but rather heartbreaking losses.  But there have been three very reputable polls in the final days that each has Biden at +5 or +6.  The polls that have it even are mostly notoriously GOP-biased (though even Rasmussen has Biden up by one point).  If Trump loses Florida, it is all over, and Florida, a fast-counting state, could be called on Election Night in the wee hours.

This chart summarizes every state (and district), and we have sorted them in the rough order that we think the outcome will be known.  This is an exceedingly difficult exercise, but might be helpful in guiding you through the evening, the overnight and, quite possibly, over the days and even weeks beyond that.

We have tried to sort the races in some rough order of when they will be "called," obviously an even more difficult task this year given the mail-in balloting.  We take into account the time the polls close, how early the states started to count mail-in ballots, and the expected win/loss margin.						BTRTN PREDICTION
						Biden	Trump
	2020 Electoral Votes	Swing State Poll Avg	BTRTN Ratings	Polls Close (ET)	Vote Count Speed	351	187
Vermont	3		D Solid	7:00	Fast	3
Kentucky	8		R Solid	6/7	Fast		8
Virginia	13		D Solid	7:00	Fast	13
Indiana	11		R Solid	6/7	Fast		11
West Virginia	5		R Solid	7:30	Fast		5
DC	3		D Solid	8:00	Fast	3
Massachusetts	11		D Solid	8:00	Fast	11
Maryland	10		D Solid	8:00	Fast	10
Illinois	20		D Solid	8:00	Fast	20
Rhode Island	4		D Solid	8:00	Fast	4
Maine 1st	1		D Solid	8:00	Fast	1
Connecticut	7		D Solid	8:00	Fast	7
New Jersey	14		D Solid	8:00	Fast	14
Delaware	3		D Solid	8:00	Fast	3
Tennessee	11		R Solid	8:00	Fast		11
Maine	2		D Solid	8:00	Fast	2
New Hampshire	4		D Solid	8:00	Fast	4
South Carolina	9		R Solid	7:00	Fast		9
Montana	3		R Solid	10:00	Fast		3
Kansas	6		R Solid	8/9	Fast		6
Nebraska 1st	1		R Solid	9:00	Fast		1
Nebraska 3rd	1		R Solid	9:00	Fast		1
Nebraska	2		R Solid	9:00	Fast		2
Arkansas	6		R Solid	8:30	Fast		6
South Dakota	3		R Solid	8/9	Fast		3
Idaho	4		R Solid	10:00	Fast		4
New York	29		D Solid	9:00	Fast	29
Oklahoma	7		R Solid	8:00	Med		7
Hawaii	4		D Solid	12:00	Fast	4
California	55		D Solid	11:00	Fast	55
Washington	12		D Solid	11:00	Fast	12
Oregon	7		D Solid	10/11	Fast	7
New Mexico	5		D Solid	9:00	Fast	5
Colorado	9		D Solid	9:00	Fast	9
Missouri	10		R Solid	8:00	Med		10
Wyoming	3		R Solid	9:00	Med		3
Utah	6		R Solid	10:00	Fast		6
Alabama	9		R Solid	8:00	Slow		9
Minnesota	10	Biden + 7	D Likely	9:00	Fast	10
Maine 2nd	1	Biden + 4	D Lean	8:00	Fast	1
Alaska	3		R Solid	12/1	Fast		3
North Dakota	3		R Solid	8/9	Slow		3
Mississippi	6		R Solid	8:00	Slow		6
Louisiana	8		R Solid	9:00	Slow		8
Nebraska 2nd	1	Biden + 4	D Lean	9:00	Med	1
Arizona	11	Biden + 3	D TU	9:00	Med	11
Florida	29	Biden + 2	D TU	7/8	Med	29
North Carolina	15	Biden + 2	D TU	7:30	Med	15
Ohio	18	Even	R TU	7:30	Med		18
Texas	38	Trump + 3	R TU	8/9	Med		38
Georgia	16	Biden + 1	D TU	7:00	Med	16
Iowa	6	Trump + 1	R TU	10:00	Med		6
Wisconsin	10	Biden + 8	D Likely	9:00	Slow	10
Michigan	16	Biden + 8	D Likely	8/9	Slow	16
Nevada	6	Biden + 3	D Lean	10:00	Slow	6
Pennsylvania	20	Biden + 5	D Lean	8:00	Slow	20

THE SENATE

The Democrats needed to flip a net +3 seats to reach the 50 required to take control of the Senate, assuming a Biden win.  Their hold on the Alabama seat has always been tenuous, and we indeed predict Doug Jones will lose that seat to Tommy Tuberville, and so they need to flip four GOP seats.  (That assumes they defend the two other Democratic seats that have been true contests, in Michigan and Minnesota – and we predict they will.)

So where will the four seats come from?

We envision the Democrats flipping both Colorado and Arizona, where John Hickenlooper and Mark Kelly, respectively, have long held solid, upper single digit lead over their incumbent counterparts, Corey Gardner and Martha McSally.

The next two are closer races, in Maine and North Carolina, where polling has steadily favored Sarah Gideon by +4-5 points and Cal Cunningham, respectively, by a lesser margin.  Cunningham has hung in despite a ghastly (and ghastly-timed) sexting scandal, while his opponent, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, had his own issues battling COVID-19, which he contracted last month.  We believe the Dems will take both of these, sending Tillis and Susan Collins home, and thereby taking control of the Senate.

There are six other races, five of which we consider toss-ups:  Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas and Georgia’s regular election.  The other race is Georgia’s special election, which features a “Jungle Primary” with many candidates from each party, which we are certain that will go to run-off in early January – with perhaps the fate of the Senate hanging in the balance.

These five toss-ups are excruciating to pick, as the polls show them as extremely close.  We see the GOP keeping Kansas, where there has not been much polling, and South Carolina – in each race there appears to be a slight lean to Roger Marshall and Lindsay Graham, so we have gone with them.

That leaves three incredibly tight races.  The polls appear to be even, as in a dead heat, in all three.  In Montana, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock has pressed GOP incumbent Steve Daines the whole campaign, running slightly behind him.  In Iowa, GOP incumbent Jodi Ernst has fought back from a five-point deficit to be dead even with challenger Theresa Greenfield.  And Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is now running neck and neck with the GOP incumbent, David Purdue.

We ended up predicting the GOP would win in Iowa and Montana, and that Georgia’s regular election would also end up in a runoff.  The two candidates are running basically 49/49 in the polls, and there is a Libertarian candidate could will siphon off just enough votes to preclude a majority winner.  (If anyone hits 50%, we believe it will be Ossoff, the Democrat.)

And so we will emerge from the November elections with the Democrats holding a 50-48 margin in the Senate, winning control with a Biden/Harris win, and with the opportunity to win a few more.

Note the full range of outcomes here.  The Dems could come away with as many as 55 seats, and thus the opportunity to get to 57 in January. 

Here are all the Senate races, generally sorted by most likely Democratic wins, down through the races in play, and ending with the seats the GOP is most likely to win.

The races the Dems are expected to win easily are show first, followed by the close races, then the ones the Republicans are expected to win easily							BTRTN PREDICTION
							Dem	GOP
State	Party (47 D/I,  53 R)	Dem	GOP	Swing State Poll Avg.	BTRTN Rating   (F = Flip)	Polls Close (ET)	50	48
No race							35	30
Rhode Is	D	Reed	Waters		D Solid	8:00	1
Mass	D	Markey	O'Connor		D Solid	8:00	1
N. Jersey	D	Booker	Mehta		D Solid	8:00	1
Illinois	D	Durbin	Curran		D Solid	8:00	1
Oregon	D	Merkeley	Perkins		D Solid	10/11	1
Delaware	D	Coons	tbd		D Solid	8:00	1
N. Mexico	D	Lujan	Ronchetti		D Solid	9:00	1
Virginia	D	Warner	Gade		D Solid	7:00	1
New Hamp	D	Shaheen	tbd		D Solid	8:00	1
Minnesota	D	Smith	Lewis		D Solid	9:00	1
Colorado	R	Hickenlooper	Gardner	D + 8	D Likely F	9:00	1
Michigan	D	Peters	James	D + 7	D Likely	8/9	1
Arizona	R	Kelly	McSally	D + 6	D Likely F	9:00	1
Maine	R	Gideon	Collins	D + 5	D Lean F	8:00	1
N. Carolina	R	Cunningham	Tillis	D + 3	D TU F	7:30	1
Geor. (R)	R	Ossoff	Perdue	Even	Runoff	7:00	Runoff	Runoff
Iowa	R	Greenfield	Ernst	Even	R TU	10:00		1
Montana	R	Bullock	Daines	Even	R TU	10:00		1
S. Carolina	R	Harrison	Graham	R + 3	R TU	7:00		1
Kansas	R	Bollier	Marshall	R + 4	R TU	8/9		1
Alaska	R	Gross	Sullivan	R + 5	R Lean	12/1		1
Geor. (S)	R	open primary; run off 1/5		<50%	Runoff	7:00	Runoff	Runoff
Mississippi	R	Espy	Hyde-Smith	R + 5	R Likely	8:00		1
Kentucky	R	McGrath	McConnell	R + 9	R Likely	6/7		1
Alabama	D	Jones	Tuberville	R + 11	R Likely F	8:00		1
Texas	R	Hegar	Cornyn		R Solid	8/9		1
Louisiana	R	open primary; run off 1/5			R Solid	9:00		1
Arkansas	R	No Dem	Cotton		R Solid	8:30		1
S. Dakota	R	Ahlers	Rounds		R Solid	8/9		1
Tennessee	R	Bradshaw	Hagerty		R Solid	8:00		1
Nebraska	R	Janicek	Sasse		R Solid	9:00		1
Idaho	R	Jordan	Risch		R Solid	10:00		1
W. Virginia	R	Swearengin	Caputo		R Solid	7:30		1
Oklahoma	R	Broyles	Inhofe		R Solid	8:00		1
Wyoming	R	Ben-David	Lummus		R Solid	9:00		1

 

THE GOVERNORS

We’ll dispense with the Governors rather quickly, otherwise they will be buried down below the 435 House races.  There are only 11 gubernatorial races this year, and only two of them are reasonably close.  We expect GOP candidate Greg Gianforte to win in Montana, the only flip.  In each of the other ten races we expect the incumbent party to defend successfully, including in Missouri, where GOP Governor Mike Parson has been pressed by challenger Nicole Galloway.

Here are all the Governor races.

The races the Dems are expected to win easily are listed first, followed by the close races, then the ones the Republicans are expected to win easily							BTRTN PREDICTION
							Dem	GOP
State	Inc. Party	Dem	GOP	Swing Poll Avg.	BTRTN Rating	Polls Close (ET)	23	27
Not running							20	19
Delaware	D	Carney	Murray		D Solid	8:00	1
Washington	D	Inslee	Culp		D Solid	11:00	1
N. Carolina	D	Cooper	Forest		D Solid	7:30	1
Montana	D	Cooney	Gianforte	R + 8	R Likely	10:00		1
Missouri	R	Galloway	Parson	R + 5	R Lean	8:00		1
New Hamp.	R	Feltes	Sununu		R Solid	8:00		1
Indiana	R	Myers	Holcomb		R Solid	6/7		1
North Dakota	R	Lenz	Burgum		R Solid	8/9		1
Utah	R	Peterson	Cox		R Solid	10:00		1
Vermont	R	Zuckerman	Scott		R Solid	7:00		1
West Virginia	R	Solango	Justice		R Solid	7:30		1

 

THE HOUSE

The key data point here is the “generic ballot”, in which pollsters ask voters whether they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican representative, without naming any candidates (hence, “generic”).  While there are other variables in our BTRTN regression models that predicts how many seats will “flip” in the overall election, this is the most powerful one.

The generic ballot at this point shows the Democrats up by +8 points over the GOP.  We predict that this will translate into the Democrats picking up 18 seats, to get to a 251 seats, leaving the GOP with a mere 184.

All the races are summarized below, with the 81 “in play” races first, followed by the races the Democrats and then Republicans will surely win.

The first 86 rows are the races "in play", ranked roughly by likelihood of a Dem win; the races that follow are those that are not in doubt ("Solid" D or R); they are sorted by party, then state/district					BTRTN PREDICTION
					Dem	GOP
State	District	Incum. (233 D- 202 R)	BTRTN Rating	Closest Races	251	184
Maine	2	D	D Likely		1
Illinois	14	D	D Likely		1
Illinois	17	D	D Likely		1
Michigan	8	D	D Likely		1
Minnesota	2	D	D Likely		1
Texas	32	D	D Likely		1
Michigan	11	D	D Likely		1
Nevada	4	D	D Likely		1
New Hampshire	1	D	D Likely		1
Pennsylvania	8	D	D Likely		1
Pennsylvania	17	D	D Likely		1
Texas	7	D	D Likely		1
Wisconsin	3	D	D Likely		1
Florida	27	D	D Likely		1
Georgia	6	D	D Likely		1
New Jersey	3	D	D Likely		1
Oregon	4	D	D Likely		1
Arizona	1	D	D Likely		1
California	39	D	D Likely		1
Nevada	3	D	D Likely		1
New Jersey	7	D	D Lean		1
Virginia	2	D	D Lean		1
Iowa	3	D	D Lean		1
Texas	23	R	D Lean		1
California	48	D	D Lean		1
Iowa	1	D	D Lean		1
Iowa	2	D	D Lean		1
S. Carolina	1	D	D Lean		1
Georgia	7	R	D Lean		1
Virginia	7	D	D Lean		1
Florida	26	D	D Lean		1
New Mexico	2	D	D Toss Up		1
New York	22	D	D Toss Up		1
Texas	24	R	D Toss Up		1
Utah	4	D	D Toss Up		1
Indiana	5	R	D Toss Up		1
Nebraska	2	R	D Toss Up		1
New Jersey	2	R	D Toss Up		1
Ohio	1	R	D Toss Up		1
Arizona	6	R	D Toss Up		1
California	21	D	D Toss Up		1
New York	2	R	D Toss Up		1
New York	11	D	D Toss Up		1
Oklahoma	5	D	D Toss Up		1
Pennsylvania	10	R	D Toss Up		1
Minnesota	1	R	D Toss Up		1
Missouri	2	R	D Toss Up		1
California	25	R	D Toss Up		1
Michigan	3	L	D Toss Up		1
Minnesota	7	D	D Toss Up		1
Texas	21	R	D Toss Up		1
Texas	22	R	D Toss Up		1
New York	24	R	D Toss Up		1
Illinois	13	R	R Toss Up			1
Virginia	5	R	R Toss Up			1
Arkansas	2	R	R Lean			1
Colorado	3	R	R Lean			1
Pennsylvania	1	R	R Lean			1
North Carolina	8	R	R Lean			1
Montana	1	R	R Lean			1
New York	1	R	R Lean			1
Texas	10	R	R Lean			1
Alaska	1	R	R Lean			1
Washington	3	R	R Lean			1
Florida	15	R	R Likely			1
Michigan	6	R	R Likely			1
North Carolina	11	R	R Likely			1
Texas	3	R	R Likely			1
California	50	R	R Likely			1
Florida	16	R	R Likely			1
Florida	18	R	R Likely			1
Ohio	10	R	R Likely			1
Texas	6	R	R Likely			1
Texas	25	R	R Likely			1
Kansas	2	R	R Likely			1
Kentucky	6	R	R Likely			1
Ohio	12	R	R Likely			1
Texas	31	R	R Likely			1
California	4	R	R Likely			1
S. Carolina	2	R	R Likely			1
Texas	2	R	R Likely			1
Alabama	7	D	D Solid		1
Arizona	2	D	D Solid		1
Arizona	3	D	D Solid		1
Arizona	7	D	D Solid		1
Arizona	9	D	D Solid		1
California	2	D	D Solid		1
California	3	D	D Solid		1
California	5	D	D Solid		1
California	6	D	D Solid		1
California	7	D	D Solid		1
California	9	D	D Solid		1
California	11	D	D Solid		1
California	12	D	D Solid		1
California	13	D	D Solid		1
California	14	D	D Solid		1
California	15	D	D Solid		1
California	16	D	D Solid		1
California	17	D	D Solid		1
California	18	D	D Solid		1
California	19	D	D Solid		1
California	20	D	D Solid		1
California	24	D	D Solid		1
California	26	D	D Solid		1
California	27	D	D Solid		1
California	28	D	D Solid		1
California	29	D	D Solid		1
California	30	D	D Solid		1
California	31	D	D Solid		1
California	32	D	D Solid		1
California	33	D	D Solid		1
California	34	D	D Solid		1
California	35	D	D Solid		1
California	36	D	D Solid		1
California	37	D	D Solid		1
California	38	D	D Solid		1
California	40	D	D Solid		1
California	41	D	D Solid		1
California	43	D	D Solid		1
California	44	D	D Solid		1
California	45	D	D Solid		1
California	46	D	D Solid		1
California	47	D	D Solid		1
California	49	D	D Solid		1
California	51	D	D Solid		1
California	52	D	D Solid		1
California	53	D	D Solid		1
Colorado	1	D	D Solid		1
Colorado	2	D	D Solid		1
Colorado	6	D	D Solid		1
Colorado	7	D	D Solid		1
Connecticut	1	D	D Solid		1
Connecticut	2	D	D Solid		1
Connecticut	3	D	D Solid		1
Connecticut	4	D	D Solid		1
Connecticut	5	D	D Solid		1
Delaware	1	D	D Solid		1
Florida	5	D	D Solid		1
Florida	7	D	D Solid		1
Florida	9	D	D Solid		1
Florida	10	D	D Solid		1
Florida	13	D	D Solid		1
Florida	14	D	D Solid		1
Florida	20	D	D Solid		1
Florida	21	D	D Solid		1
Florida	22	D	D Solid		1
Florida	23	D	D Solid		1
Florida	24	D	D Solid		1
Georgia	2	D	D Solid		1
Georgia	4	D	D Solid		1
Georgia	5	D	D Solid		1
Georgia	13	D	D Solid		1
Hawaii	1	D	D Solid		1
Hawaii	2	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	1	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	2	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	3	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	4	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	5	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	7	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	8	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	9	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	10	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	11	D	D Solid		1
Indiana	1	D	D Solid		1
Indiana	7	D	D Solid		1
Kansas	3	D	D Solid		1
Kentucky	3	D	D Solid		1
Louisiana	2	D	D Solid		1
Maine	1	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	2	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	3	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	4	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	5	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	6	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	7	D	D Solid		1
Maryland	8	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	1	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	2	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	3	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	4	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	5	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	6	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	7	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	8	D	D Solid		1
Massachusetts	9	D	D Solid		1
Michigan	5	D	D Solid		1
Michigan	9	D	D Solid		1
Michigan	12	D	D Solid		1
Michigan	13	D	D Solid		1
Michigan	14	D	D Solid		1
Minnesota	3	D	D Solid		1
Minnesota	4	D	D Solid		1
Minnesota	5	D	D Solid		1
Mississippi	2	D	D Solid		1
Missouri	1	D	D Solid		1
Missouri	5	D	D Solid		1
Nevada	1	D	D Solid		1
New Hampshire	2	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	1	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	5	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	6	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	8	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	9	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	10	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	11	D	D Solid		1
New Jersey	12	D	D Solid		1
New Mexico	1	D	D Solid		1
New Mexico	3	D	D Solid		1
New York	3	D	D Solid		1
New York	4	D	D Solid		1
New York	5	D	D Solid		1
New York	6	D	D Solid		1
New York	7	D	D Solid		1
New York	8	D	D Solid		1
New York	9	D	D Solid		1
New York	10	D	D Solid		1
New York	12	D	D Solid		1
New York	13	D	D Solid		1
New York	14	D	D Solid		1
New York	15	D	D Solid		1
New York	16	D	D Solid		1
New York	17	D	D Solid		1
New York	18	D	D Solid		1
New York	19	D	D Solid		1
New York	20	D	D Solid		1
New York	25	D	D Solid		1
New York	26	D	D Solid		1
North Carolina	1	D	D Solid		1
North Carolina	2	R	D Solid		1
North Carolina	4	D	D Solid		1
North Carolina	6	R	D Solid		1
North Carolina	12	D	D Solid		1
Ohio	3	D	D Solid		1
Ohio	9	D	D Solid		1
Ohio	11	D	D Solid		1
Ohio	13	D	D Solid		1
Oregon	1	D	D Solid		1
Oregon	3	D	D Solid		1
Oregon	5	D	D Solid		1
Pennsylvania	2	D	D Solid		1
Pennsylvania	5	D	D Solid		1
Pennsylvania	6	D	D Solid		1
Pennsylvania	13	R	D Solid		1
Pennsylvania	18	D	D Solid		1
Rhode Island	1	D	D Solid		1
Rhode Island	2	D	D Solid		1
S. Carolina	6	D	D Solid		1
Tennessee	5	D	D Solid		1
Tennessee	9	D	D Solid		1
Texas	9	D	D Solid		1
Texas	15	D	D Solid		1
Texas	16	D	D Solid		1
Texas	18	D	D Solid		1
Texas	20	D	D Solid		1
Texas	28	D	D Solid		1
Texas	29	D	D Solid		1
Texas	30	D	D Solid		1
Texas	33	D	D Solid		1
Texas	34	D	D Solid		1
Texas	35	D	D Solid		1
Vermont	1	D	D Solid		1
Virginia	3	D	D Solid		1
Virginia	4	D	D Solid		1
Virginia	8	D	D Solid		1
Virginia	10	D	D Solid		1
Virginia	11	D	D Solid		1
Washington	1	D	D Solid		1
Washington	2	D	D Solid		1
Washington	6	D	D Solid		1
Washington	7	D	D Solid		1
Washington	9	D	D Solid		1
Washington	10	D	D Solid		1
Wisconsin	2	D	D Solid		1
Wisconsin	4	D	D Solid		1
Illinois	6	D	D Solid		1
California	10	D	D Solid		1
Pennsylvania	7	D	D Solid		1
Washington	8	D	D Solid		1
North Carolina	9	R	R Solid			1
Minnesota	8	R	R Solid			1
New York	27	R	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	16	R	R Solid			1
Alabama	1	R	R Solid			1
Alabama	2	R	R Solid			1
Alabama	3	R	R Solid			1
Alabama	4	R	R Solid			1
Alabama	5	R	R Solid			1
Alabama	6	R	R Solid			1
Arizona	4	R	R Solid			1
Arizona	5	R	R Solid			1
Arizona	8	R	R Solid			1
Arkansas	1	R	R Solid			1
Arkansas	3	R	R Solid			1
Arkansas	4	R	R Solid			1
California	1	R	R Solid			1
California	8	R	R Solid			1
California	22	R	R Solid			1
California	23	R	R Solid			1
California	42	R	R Solid			1
Colorado	4	R	R Solid			1
Colorado	5	R	R Solid			1
Florida	1	R	R Solid			1
Florida	2	R	R Solid			1
Florida	3	R	R Solid			1
Florida	4	R	R Solid			1
Florida	6	R	R Solid			1
Florida	8	R	R Solid			1
Florida	11	R	R Solid			1
Florida	12	R	R Solid			1
Florida	17	R	R Solid			1
Florida	19	R	R Solid			1
Florida	25	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	1	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	3	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	8	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	9	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	10	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	11	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	12	R	R Solid			1
Georgia	14	R	R Solid			1
Idaho	1	R	R Solid			1
Idaho	2	R	R Solid			1
Illinois	12	R	R Solid			1
Illinois	15	R	R Solid			1
Illinois	16	R	R Solid			1
Illinois	18	R	R Solid			1
Indiana	2	R	R Solid			1
Indiana	3	R	R Solid			1
Indiana	4	R	R Solid			1
Indiana	6	R	R Solid			1
Indiana	8	R	R Solid			1
Indiana	9	R	R Solid			1
Iowa	4	R	R Solid			1
Kansas	1	R	R Solid			1
Kansas	4	R	R Solid			1
Kentucky	1	R	R Solid			1
Kentucky	2	R	R Solid			1
Kentucky	4	R	R Solid			1
Kentucky	5	R	R Solid			1
Louisiana	1	R	R Solid			1
Louisiana	3	R	R Solid			1
Louisiana	4	R	R Solid			1
Louisiana	5	R	R Solid			1
Louisiana	6	R	R Solid			1
Maryland	1	R	R Solid			1
Michigan	1	R	R Solid			1
Michigan	2	R	R Solid			1
Michigan	4	R	R Solid			1
Michigan	7	R	R Solid			1
Michigan	10	R	R Solid			1
Minnesota	6	R	R Solid			1
Mississippi	1	R	R Solid			1
Mississippi	3	R	R Solid			1
Mississippi	4	R	R Solid			1
Missouri	3	R	R Solid			1
Missouri	4	R	R Solid			1
Missouri	6	R	R Solid			1
Missouri	7	R	R Solid			1
Missouri	8	R	R Solid			1
N. Dakota	1	R	R Solid			1
Nebraska	1	R	R Solid			1
Nebraska	3	R	R Solid			1
Nevada	2	R	R Solid			1
New Jersey	4	R	R Solid			1
New York	21	R	R Solid			1
New York	23	R	R Solid			1
North Carolina	3	R	R Solid			1
North Carolina	5	R	R Solid			1
North Carolina	7	R	R Solid			1
North Carolina	10	R	R Solid			1
North Carolina	13	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	2	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	4	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	5	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	6	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	7	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	8	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	14	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	15	R	R Solid			1
Ohio	16	R	R Solid			1
Oklahoma	1	R	R Solid			1
Oklahoma	2	R	R Solid			1
Oklahoma	3	R	R Solid			1
Oklahoma	4	R	R Solid			1
Oregon	2	R	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	3	D	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	4	D	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	9	R	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	11	R	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	12	R	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	14	R	R Solid			1
Pennsylvania	15	R	R Solid			1
S. Carolina	3	R	R Solid			1
S. Carolina	4	R	R Solid			1
S. Carolina	5	R	R Solid			1
S. Carolina	7	R	R Solid			1
S. Dakota	1	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	1	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	2	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	3	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	4	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	6	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	7	R	R Solid			1
Tennessee	8	R	R Solid			1
Texas	1	R	R Solid			1
Texas	4	R	R Solid			1
Texas	5	R	R Solid			1
Texas	8	R	R Solid			1
Texas	11	R	R Solid			1
Texas	12	R	R Solid			1
Texas	13	R	R Solid			1
Texas	14	R	R Solid			1
Texas	17	R	R Solid			1
Texas	19	R	R Solid			1
Texas	26	R	R Solid			1
Texas	27	R	R Solid			1
Texas	36	R	R Solid			1
Utah	1	R	R Solid			1
Utah	2	R	R Solid			1
Utah	3	R	R Solid			1
Virginia	1	R	R Solid			1
Virginia	6	R	R Solid			1
Virginia	9	R	R Solid			1
Washington	4	R	R Solid			1
Washington	5	R	R Solid			1
West Virginia	1	R	R Solid			1
West Virginia	2	R	R Solid			1
West Virginia	3	R	R Solid			1
Wisconsin	1	R	R Solid			1
Wisconsin	5	R	R Solid			1
Wisconsin	6	R	R Solid			1
Wisconsin	7	R	R Solid			1
Wisconsin	8	R	R Solid			1
Wyoming	1	R	R Solid			1