Monday, November 2, 2020

BTRTN 2020 Official Election Predictions: Biden Wins and Dems Achieve a Trifecta

Here are Tom’s official BTRTN’s predictions (not a snapshot!)….but he reserves the right to come back tomorrow at 5 PM ET if the final flurry of polls released tomorrow morning reveal any material shifts.  (We have now looked at today's -- Tuesday's -- polls and will make no changes.)

It takes an awful lot of chutzpah for anyone to make predictions about the 2020 elections.  After all, we were among those who got it wrong in 2016 (ugh).  And, the 2020 races are chock full of “toss ups,” in which we make calls with one hand on a calculator and the other on a Ouija board.  There’s also the matter of Donald Trump, who has a terrible tendency to render precedents somewhat moot (remember the “Blue Wall”?).  And most of all, we live in the age of COVID-19, where norms have been shattered, turning the election process underway in the United States on its head.  Remarkably, over 97 million Americans have already voted, 62 million of them by mail, presaging record turnout, with difficult to ascertain implications.

But indeed we do have an awful lot of chutzpah, because our predictions follow below.  We will forecast the winner of each and every one of the 56 states and districts that have distinct Electoral College votes for the presidency, and all 35 Senate, 435 House and 11 gubernatorial races – 537 separate races in total.  First we’ll summarize the headlines, where we came out on those crucial swing state races, how many seats will flip in the House, and then follow with charts that devote a single line to each of those 537 races.

(And if you prefer to watch these predictions unfold in video format, it is up on YouTube right now:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAfg8cV_b_0  .)

Why should you listen to us?  We admit we missed the boat in 2016; we were among the many who predicted, with historic inaccuracy, that Hillary Clinton would win.  It’s hard to put that aside.  But apart from that, when a small set of crucial states went the wrong way, we have a pretty good track record.

Year

Total Elections

House Gains

Total Races

# Correct

% Correct

BTRTN Prediction

Actual Outcome

2008

91

89

98%

n/a

n/a

2010

471

453

96%

R + 58

R + 63

2012

524

502

96%

D + 4

D + 8

2014

507

488

96%

R + 10

R + 13

2016

537

519

97%

D + 5

D + 6

2017

8

6

75%

n/a

n/a

2018

506

484

96%

D + 38

D + 41

Total

2644

2541

96%

n/a

n/a

We started by getting every Senate race right in the 2008 elections and all but two states in the Obama-McCain presidential race.  Out of more than 2,500 elections since then (now including all presidential, House, Senate and gubernatorial races), we've been right 96% of the time.  And we’ve been nearly spot on in forecasting gains and losses in the House.  Sure, many of these races have not been terribly competitive; but a bunch have, and we hold our record up against those of our more famous (and for profit) brethren.

One note:  if any reader wants our handy, dandy semi-famous spreadsheets that allow you to easily track Election Night (and beyond) outcomes for each of the presidential, Senate, House and Governor races (and see how we are doing against our predictions), just email us and we will send them along to you:  borntorunthenumbers@gmail.com.

On to our fearless predictions…


THE ODDS

First, our final “odds” which lead to the predictions.  These odds are derived from our various BTRTN simulation models, which in turn are fed polling information and massaged based on other factors, including resources, history, trends and judgment.

BTRTN ELECTION DASHBOARD

BTRTN Election Odds of Democrats' Winning/Controlling

President

Senate

House

Governors

88%

71%

99%

n/a

351 Biden/187 Trump

50 DEM/48 GOP (D + 3, 2 runoffs)

251 DEM/184 GOP (D + 18)

GOP 27/DEM 23 (GOP + 1)

 

THE PREDICTIONS

And here is the answer: the Democrats will win the trifecta, emerging from this election with control of each of the White House, Senate and House.

·        Joe Biden will become our 46th President by a comfortable margin, earning 351 electoral votes to 187 for Donald Trump.  Trump will become the first incumbent to be defeated in his bid for reelection in 28 years, since Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush in 1992. 

·        Biden will have a Democratic Senate to work with, as the Democrats squeak out a 50-seat majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris presiding over her former colleagues and able to break ties with a deciding vote as needed.  But there will be two run-off elections in January that will each be very close. 

·        Not surprisingly, the Democrats will maintain control of the House of Representatives, adding 18 seats to extend their impressive majority to an overwhelming one, 251 to 184. 

·       The GOP will only be able to point to one consolation prize; they will win the only state house that flips in this election, thereby increasing their Governor majority to 27 to 23.

We make no particular statement at this point about when Biden will actually be declared the winner, or what Trump will do when confronted by a call by the AP and the networks.  There is some possibility that Biden will be declared the winner in the wee hours of Election Night because, by our calculations, he does not need the “slow counting” states to win.  But it is entirely possible, and more likely, that things will drag on because even some of the “faster counting” states will be very closely contested.

We are also not going to do any analysis of what the “red mirage” might look like – the very real notion that Trump will lead in the early Election Night results because more GOP voters are voting in person, votes that will be counted first.  Suffice to say, that red mirage will likely happen; it is common for many close races to follow that pattern, since largely Democratic cities take longer to count that rural red areas.  The in-person effect will enhance that tendency even further.  Be prepared and don’t panic.


THE PRESIDENCY

Joe Biden will win not only because he flips the Big Three – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – but several other “toss up” states as well, including another big one, Florida.

Biden enters Election Day with a strong base of 20 “Solid Blue” states, comprising 216 electoral votes.  Add to that a Biden win in Minnesota, a state that Hillary Clinton won, and that Trump has contested and will make reasonably close, which will bring Biden to 226.

Biden had led in the polling by a substantial margin in Michigan for some time, putting it almost out of reach.  More recently, Wisconsin, doubtless driven by an epic COVID-19 surge, has also see Biden expand his lead.  Biden has leads in both Michigan and Wisconsin by about +8 points.  He will win both, although neither very quickly…Wisconsin does not begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day itself, while Michigan does not count until the day before Election Day.

Pennsylvania has been Trump’s true focus.  There was really only one path for him to defeat Biden:  win every toss up state – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – and, assuming he performed that miracle (since he trailed nominally in most of them), then win Pennsylvania.  But the polls have largely been in Biden’s favor in Pennsylvania despite the onslaught of Trump rallies.  Of  the33 polls conducted since October 1 in Pennsylvania, Biden has led in of 31 of them, with one tie and one Trump lead (of only +2 points); on average Biden has led by +5 points.

That is all Biden needs to win – adding the Big Three’s 46 electoral votes to the 226 he had, gets him to 272.

We also predict Biden will take Nevada and Maine’s 2nd district, both of which had been leaning to Biden).  

That leaves the seven swing states, and they were exceedingly difficult to predict.  We see them breaking as follows:  Biden taking Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, and Trump taking Texas, Ohio and Iowa.  These seven states amount to a whopping 133 electoral votes.  That means that if Biden took all of them, he would have pulled off a true landslide, with 413 electoral votes to Trump’s 125.  But if Trump swept them, Biden would have achieved only a narrow victory, 280 – 258. 

And that is the true range of possible outcomes we have before us.  If Biden wins a landslide, it would completely undercut Trump’s potential challenges.  But if Biden wins by the narrower margin, then we will see Trump in court contesting Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, enough to flip the election.

And we should grant at least the small possibility (which we have pegged at 12% odds) that Trump could win.  His only path is to sweep the toss-ups and take Pennsylvania, all of which is exceedingly unlikely.

The one we truly agonized over is Florida.  We are awaiting any new polls that might shed some late-breaking insight.  Biden is leading very slightly in the polls (+2), but history has taught us (2016 presidential race, 2018 governor and Senate) that Florida Democratic polling leads on Election Day do not translate into Democratic wins, but rather heartbreaking losses.  But there have been three very reputable polls in the final days that each has Biden at +5 or +6.  The polls that have it even are mostly notoriously GOP-biased (though even Rasmussen has Biden up by one point).  If Trump loses Florida, it is all over, and Florida, a fast-counting state, could be called on Election Night in the wee hours.

This chart summarizes every state (and district), and we have sorted them in the rough order that we think the outcome will be known.  This is an exceedingly difficult exercise, but might be helpful in guiding you through the evening, the overnight and, quite possibly, over the days and even weeks beyond that.

We have tried to sort the races in some rough order of when they will be "called," obviously an even more difficult task this year given the mail-in balloting.  We take into account the time the polls close, how early the states started to count mail-in ballots, and the expected win/loss margin.

BTRTN PREDICTION

Biden

Trump

 

2020 Electoral Votes

Swing State Poll Avg

BTRTN Ratings

Polls Close (ET)

Vote Count Speed

351

187

Vermont

3

 

D Solid

7:00

Fast

3

 

Kentucky

8

 

R Solid

6/7

Fast

 

8

Virginia

13

 

D Solid

7:00

Fast

13

 

Indiana

11

 

R Solid

6/7

Fast

 

11

West Virginia

5

 

R Solid

7:30

Fast

 

5

DC

3

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

3

 

Massachusetts

11

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

11

 

Maryland

10

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

10

 

Illinois

20

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

20

 

Rhode Island

4

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

4

 

Maine 1st

1

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

1

 

Connecticut

7

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

7

 

New Jersey

14

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

14

 

Delaware

3

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

3

 

Tennessee

11

 

R Solid

8:00

Fast

 

11

Maine

2

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

2

 

New Hampshire

4

 

D Solid

8:00

Fast

4

 

South Carolina

9

 

R Solid

7:00

Fast

 

9

Montana

3

 

R Solid

10:00

Fast

 

3

Kansas

6

 

R Solid

8/9

Fast

 

6

Nebraska 1st

1

 

R Solid

9:00

Fast

 

1

Nebraska 3rd

1

 

R Solid

9:00

Fast

 

1

Nebraska

2

 

R Solid

9:00

Fast

 

2

Arkansas

6

 

R Solid

8:30

Fast

 

6

South Dakota

3

 

R Solid

8/9

Fast

 

3

Idaho

4

 

R Solid

10:00

Fast

 

4

New York

29

 

D Solid

9:00

Fast

29

 

Oklahoma

7

 

R Solid

8:00

Med

 

7

Hawaii

4

 

D Solid

12:00

Fast

4

 

California

55

 

D Solid

11:00

Fast

55

 

Washington

12

 

D Solid

11:00

Fast

12

 

Oregon

7

 

D Solid

10/11

Fast

7

 

New Mexico

5

 

D Solid

9:00

Fast

5

 

Colorado

9

 

D Solid

9:00

Fast

9

 

Missouri

10

 

R Solid

8:00

Med

 

10

Wyoming

3

 

R Solid

9:00

Med

 

3

Utah

6

 

R Solid

10:00

Fast

 

6

Alabama

9

 

R Solid

8:00

Slow

 

9

Minnesota

10

Biden + 7

D Likely

9:00

Fast

10

 

Maine 2nd

1

Biden + 4

D Lean

8:00

Fast

1

 

Alaska

3

 

R Solid

12/1

Fast

 

3

North Dakota

3

 

R Solid

8/9

Slow

 

3

Mississippi

6

 

R Solid

8:00

Slow

 

6

Louisiana

8

 

R Solid

9:00

Slow

 

8

Nebraska 2nd

1

Biden + 4

D Lean

9:00

Med

1

 

Arizona

11

Biden + 3

D TU

9:00

Med

11

 

Florida

29

Biden + 2

D TU

7/8

Med

29

 

North Carolina

15

Biden + 2

D TU

7:30

Med

15

 

Ohio

18

Even

R TU

7:30

Med

 

18

Texas

38

Trump + 3

R TU

8/9

Med

 

38

Georgia

16

Biden + 1

D TU

7:00

Med

16

 

Iowa

6

Trump + 1

R TU

10:00

Med

 

6

Wisconsin

10

Biden + 8

D Likely

9:00

Slow

10

 

Michigan

16

Biden + 8

D Likely

8/9

Slow

16

 

Nevada

6

Biden + 3

D Lean

10:00

Slow

6

 

Pennsylvania

20

Biden + 5

D Lean

8:00

Slow

20

 


THE SENATE

The Democrats needed to flip a net +3 seats to reach the 50 required to take control of the Senate, assuming a Biden win.  Their hold on the Alabama seat has always been tenuous, and we indeed predict Doug Jones will lose that seat to Tommy Tuberville, and so they need to flip four GOP seats.  (That assumes they defend the two other Democratic seats that have been true contests, in Michigan and Minnesota – and we predict they will.)

So where will the four seats come from?

We envision the Democrats flipping both Colorado and Arizona, where John Hickenlooper and Mark Kelly, respectively, have long held solid, upper single digit lead over their incumbent counterparts, Corey Gardner and Martha McSally.

The next two are closer races, in Maine and North Carolina, where polling has steadily favored Sarah Gideon by +4-5 points and Cal Cunningham, respectively, by a lesser margin.  Cunningham has hung in despite a ghastly (and ghastly-timed) sexting scandal, while his opponent, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis, had his own issues battling COVID-19, which he contracted last month.  We believe the Dems will take both of these, sending Tillis and Susan Collins home, and thereby taking control of the Senate.

There are six other races, five of which we consider toss-ups:  Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas and Georgia’s regular election.  The other race is Georgia’s special election, which features a “Jungle Primary” with many candidates from each party, which we are certain that will go to run-off in early January – with perhaps the fate of the Senate hanging in the balance.

These five toss-ups are excruciating to pick, as the polls show them as extremely close.  We see the GOP keeping Kansas, where there has not been much polling, and South Carolina – in each race there appears to be a slight lean to Roger Marshall and Lindsay Graham, so we have gone with them.

That leaves three incredibly tight races.  The polls appear to be even, as in a dead heat, in all three.  In Montana, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock has pressed GOP incumbent Steve Daines the whole campaign, running slightly behind him.  In Iowa, GOP incumbent Jodi Ernst has fought back from a five-point deficit to be dead even with challenger Theresa Greenfield.  And Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is now running neck and neck with the GOP incumbent, David Purdue.

We ended up predicting the GOP would win in Iowa and Montana, and that Georgia’s regular election would also end up in a runoff.  The two candidates are running basically 49/49 in the polls, and there is a Libertarian candidate could will siphon off just enough votes to preclude a majority winner.  (If anyone hits 50%, we believe it will be Ossoff, the Democrat.)

And so we will emerge from the November elections with the Democrats holding a 50-48 margin in the Senate, winning control with a Biden/Harris win, and with the opportunity to win a few more.

Note the full range of outcomes here.  The Dems could come away with as many as 55 seats, and thus the opportunity to get to 57 in January. 

Here are all the Senate races, generally sorted by most likely Democratic wins, down through the races in play, and ending with the seats the GOP is most likely to win.


The races the Dems are expected to win easily are show first, followed by the close races, then the ones the Republicans are expected to win easily

BTRTN PREDICTION

Dem

GOP

State

Party (47 D/I,

 53 R)

Dem

GOP

Swing State Poll Avg.

BTRTN Rating   (F = Flip)

Polls Close (ET)

50

48

No race

 

 

 

 

 

 

35

30

Rhode Is

D

Reed

Waters

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

Mass

D

Markey

O'Connor

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

N. Jersey

D

Booker

Mehta

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

Illinois

D

Durbin

Curran

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

Oregon

D

Merkeley

Perkins

 

D Solid

10/11

1

 

Delaware

D

Coons

tbd

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

N. Mexico

D

Lujan

Ronchetti

 

D Solid

9:00

1

 

Virginia

D

Warner

Gade

 

D Solid

7:00

1

 

New Hamp

D

Shaheen

tbd

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

Minnesota

D

Smith

Lewis

 

D Solid

9:00

1

 

Colorado

R

Hickenlooper

Gardner

D + 8

D Likely F

9:00

1

 

Michigan

D

Peters

James

D + 7

D Likely

8/9

1

 

Arizona

R

Kelly

McSally

D + 6

D Likely F

9:00

1

 

Maine

R

Gideon

Collins

D + 5

D Lean F

8:00

1

 

N. Carolina

R

Cunningham

Tillis

D + 3

D TU F

7:30

1

 

Geor. (R)

R

Ossoff

Perdue

Even

Runoff

7:00

Runoff

Runoff

Iowa

R

Greenfield

Ernst

Even

R TU

10:00

 

1

Montana

R

Bullock

Daines

Even

R TU

10:00

 

1

S. Carolina

R

Harrison

Graham

R + 3

R TU

7:00

 

1

Kansas

R

Bollier

Marshall

R + 4

R TU

8/9

 

1

Alaska

R

Gross

Sullivan

R + 5

R Lean

12/1

 

1

Geor. (S)

R

open primary; run off 1/5

<50%

Runoff

7:00

Runoff

Runoff

Mississippi

R

Espy

Hyde-Smith

R + 5

R Likely

8:00

 

1

Kentucky

R

McGrath

McConnell

R + 9

R Likely

6/7

 

1

Alabama

D

Jones

Tuberville

R + 11

R Likely F

8:00

 

1

Texas

R

Hegar

Cornyn

 

R Solid

8/9

 

1

Louisiana

R

open primary; run off 1/5

 

R Solid

9:00

 

1

Arkansas

R

No Dem

Cotton

 

R Solid

8:30

 

1

S. Dakota

R

Ahlers

Rounds

 

R Solid

8/9

 

1

Tennessee

R

Bradshaw

Hagerty

 

R Solid

8:00

 

1

Nebraska

R

Janicek

Sasse

 

R Solid

9:00

 

1

Idaho

R

Jordan

Risch

 

R Solid

10:00

 

1

W. Virginia

R

Swearengin

Caputo

 

R Solid

7:30

 

1

Oklahoma

R

Broyles

Inhofe

 

R Solid

8:00

 

1

Wyoming

R

Ben-David

Lummus

 

R Solid

9:00

 

1

 

THE GOVERNORS

We’ll dispense with the Governors rather quickly, otherwise they will be buried down below the 435 House races.  There are only 11 gubernatorial races this year, and only two of them are reasonably close.  We expect GOP candidate Greg Gianforte to win in Montana, the only flip.  In each of the other ten races we expect the incumbent party to defend successfully, including in Missouri, where GOP Governor Mike Parson has been pressed by challenger Nicole Galloway.

Here are all the Governor races.

The races the Dems are expected to win easily are listed first, followed by the close races, then the ones the Republicans are expected to win easily

BTRTN PREDICTION

Dem

GOP

State

Inc. Party

Dem

GOP

Swing Poll Avg.

BTRTN Rating

Polls Close (ET)

23

27

Not running

 

 

 

 

 

 

20

19

Delaware

D

Carney

Murray

 

D Solid

8:00

1

 

Washington

D

Inslee

Culp

 

D Solid

11:00

1

 

N. Carolina

D

Cooper

Forest

 

D Solid

7:30

1

 

Montana

D

Cooney

Gianforte

R + 8

R Likely

10:00

 

1

Missouri

R

Galloway

Parson

R + 5

R Lean

8:00

 

1

New Hamp.

R

Feltes

Sununu

 

R Solid

8:00

 

1

Indiana

R

Myers

Holcomb

 

R Solid

6/7

 

1

North Dakota

R

Lenz

Burgum

 

R Solid

8/9

 

1

Utah

R

Peterson

Cox

 

R Solid

10:00

 

1

Vermont

R

Zuckerman

Scott

 

R Solid

7:00

 

1

West Virginia

R

Solango

Justice

 

R Solid

7:30

 

1

 

THE HOUSE

The key data point here is the “generic ballot”, in which pollsters ask voters whether they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican representative, without naming any candidates (hence, “generic”).  While there are other variables in our BTRTN regression models that predicts how many seats will “flip” in the overall election, this is the most powerful one.

The generic ballot at this point shows the Democrats up by +8 points over the GOP.  We predict that this will translate into the Democrats picking up 18 seats, to get to a 251 seats, leaving the GOP with a mere 184.

All the races are summarized below, with the 81 “in play” races first, followed by the races the Democrats and then Republicans will surely win.

The first 86 rows are the races "in play", ranked roughly by likelihood of a Dem win; the races that follow are those that are not in doubt ("Solid" D or R); they are sorted by party, then state/district

BTRTN PREDICTION

Dem

GOP

State

District

Incum. (233 D- 202 R)

BTRTN Rating

Closest Races

251

184

Maine

2

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Illinois

14

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Illinois

17

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Michigan

8

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Minnesota

2

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Texas

32

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Michigan

11

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Nevada

4

D

D Likely

 

1

 

New Hampshire

1

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Pennsylvania 

8

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Pennsylvania 

17

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Texas

7

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Wisconsin

3

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Florida

27

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Georgia

6

D

D Likely

 

1

 

New Jersey

3

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Oregon 

4

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Arizona

1

D

D Likely

 

1

 

California

39

D

D Likely

 

1

 

Nevada

3

D

D Likely

 

1

 

New Jersey

7

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Virginia

2

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Iowa

3

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Texas

23

R

D Lean

 

1

 

California

48

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Iowa

1

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Iowa

2

D

D Lean

 

1

 

S. Carolina

1

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Georgia

7

R

D Lean

 

1

 

Virginia

7

D

D Lean

 

1

 

Florida

26

D

D Lean

 

1

 

New Mexico

2

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

New York

22

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Texas

24

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Utah

4

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Indiana

5

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Nebraska

2

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

New Jersey

2

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Ohio

1

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Arizona

6

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

California

21

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

New York

2

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

New York

11

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Oklahoma 

5

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Pennsylvania 

10

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Minnesota

1

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Missouri

2

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

California

25

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Michigan

3

L

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Minnesota

7

D

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Texas

21

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Texas

22

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

New York

24

R

D Toss Up

 

1

 

Illinois

13

R

R Toss Up

 

 

1

Virginia

5

R

R Toss Up

 

 

1

Arkansas

2

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Colorado

3

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Pennsylvania 

1

R

R Lean

 

 

1

North Carolina

8

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Montana

1

R

R Lean

 

 

1

New York

1

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Texas

10

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Alaska

1

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Washington

3

R

R Lean

 

 

1

Florida

15

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Michigan

6

R

R Likely

 

 

1

North Carolina

11

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Texas

3

R

R Likely

 

 

1

California

50

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Florida

16

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Florida

18

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Ohio

10

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Texas

6

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Texas

25

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Kansas

2

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Kentucky

6

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Ohio

12

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Texas

31

R

R Likely

 

 

1

California

4

R

R Likely

 

 

1

S. Carolina

2

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Texas

2

R

R Likely

 

 

1

Alabama

7

D

D Solid

 

1

 

Arizona

2

D

D Solid

 

1

 

Arizona

3

D

D Solid

 

1

 

Arizona

7

D

D Solid

 

1

 

Arizona

9

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

2

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

3

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

5

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

6

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

7

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

9

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

11

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

12

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

13

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

14

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

15

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

16

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

17

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

18

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

19

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

20

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

24

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

26

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

27

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

28

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

29

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

30

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

31

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

32

D

D Solid

 

1

 

California

33