Swing State Pres

Monday, July 2, 2012

The Dashboard Points to Obama (July 2, 2012)

The Dashboard pushed a bit further toward Obama in the past week…

The Obameter.  The Obameter has climbed to a +6.8 for Obama….somewhat favorable and a modest increase versus last week.  The week did not start as well on the data, with a dip in the stock market and the announcement of the monthly Consumer Confidence Index, which dropped down about 3 points to 62.  But "events" overtook the numbers last week.  First, the immigration issue continued to be a win for Obama, with the Supreme Court verdict that struck down most of the law while retaining the notorious "show me your papers" clause.  And then the Health Care decision, which happened too late in the week to move many numbers but clearly provided a very positive boost in the short-term news cycle and for the long term Obama message.  I gave the highly subjective "event" portion of the Obameter (look on the right hand column for an explanation) a score of 5 points – the first "event" of the campaign, in my view -- for the twin wins for Obama.

OBAMETER














31-May
4-Jun
11-Jun
18-Jun
25-Jun
2-Jul
Unemployment Rate (beginning)
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
Consumer Confidence (end)
64.9
64.9
64.9
64.9
64.9
62.0
Price of Gas (average for month)
3.79
3.67
3.63
3.59
3.49
3.41
Dow-Jones (average for month)
    12,722
    12,119
      12,332
      12,580
      12,724
      12,625
Romney Favorability (average)
45.2
44.0
44.0
44.0
42.7
42.8
"Events"
0
0
0
0
0
5







Unemployment Rate (beginning)
6
5
5
5
5
5
Consumer Confidence (end)
0
0
0
0
0
-3
Price of Gas (average for month)
-5
-4
-3
-3
-2
-1
Dow-Jones (average for month)
6
0
3
5
6
5
Romney Favorability (average)
-7
-6
-6
-6
-5
-5
"Events"
0
0
0
0
0
5







OBAMETER
0.5
-4.2
-1.6
1.2
5.0
6.8
Obama versus Romney
1.5
-2.0
0.7
-1.5
2.1
3.2



The Charisma Factor.  Recent favorability data shows a slightly widened Obama lead up to +8.3 (the difference between Obama's net favorability of 7.0 and Romney's net favorability of -1.3).  That Romney continues to have a net unfavorability – a negative of just over 44 versus a positive of just under 43 – is not good news for Mitt.  Some of the punditry believes Obama's relentless branding of Romney as an "outsourcer" is doing some damage….if so, pretty modest at this point.  But Romney's previous upward favorability momentum has been stopped cold in the low 40's.

Latest Polling.  This was a very good week of polling for Obama, clearly in the wake of the immigration halo.  Fox, Newsweek, NBC, Democracy Corp and Gallup Daily all show Obama ahead from between 2 and 5 points.  Rasmussen Daily, which typically polls a big further to the right, is, true to form, the only one showing Romney ahead (by 2 points).  I've calculated the average for all the polls as Obama +2.8 points (for polls since June 20th).

Swing States.  Swing state polls continue to favor Obama as well, albeit narrowly, with the average margin at +1.2 points.  A new poll shows a much larger gap in Arizona, which affected the total number.  Some flipping went on between Ohio (jumping as of now to Obama) and Virginia (to Romney).  Florida widened its lead for Obama while North Carolina narrowed its for Romney.  Overall, the picture remains favorable for Obama.



Electoral
         Polling
 Since
6/15 

Votes
Obama
Romney
Obama +/-
Pennsylvania
20
45.0
39.0
6.0
Nevada
6
48.0
42.0
6.0
Ohio
18
47.0
41.0
6.0
Colorado
9
48.0
42.5
5.5
Florida
29
45.0
41.0
4.0
Wisconsin
10
46.5
44.0
2.5
Michigan
16
45.7
44.7
1.0
Iowa
6
45.0
44.0
1.0
North Carolina
15
45.0
45.5
-0.5
Virginia
13
43.0
48.0
-5.0
Missouri
10
42.0
49.0
-7.0
Arizona
11
41.0
54.0
-13.0

163


1.2
Electoral College Projection.   Using the swing state polling as a guide, Obama continues to have a decent lead in overall projected electoral votes.


Solid
Swing
Total
Obama
205
114
319
Romney
170
49
219

Obviously it is still early, though as we cross into July, we begin the pre-convention period.  The convention represents the first chance for the candidates to reach out beyond the crazies like me who follow everything and state their case to a reasonably large segment of the American people.  The Republican Convention goes from August 27-30th in Tampa Bay, Florida, to be followed by the Democrats from September 3rd-6th in Charlotte, South Carolina.

But the campaign is heating up, and I continue to believe that Romney needs some sort of catalyst to surge ahead…an "event" of some kind.  And I'm not sure exactly what it is…and I am particularly stumped on how he can initiate one on his own.

As always, comments welcome! 

And come back tomorrow for another post….

4 comments:

  1. it's hot, and the obameter seems to be a little too cool.

    ReplyDelete
  2. it's way too early, and +5 is way too generous. Obama is running a listless and directionless campaign. sure, he got a win with Roberts' wise choice, but let's wait till Sept when temps cool and people focus. SCOTUS gave Romney a big present - focus. His Repeal ObamaCare message is a lot more clear than Obama's blundering, aloof, 1200 page long, unfundable message...

    ReplyDelete
  3. I agree that we have a long way to go here and voters aren't focused yet. And Roberts certainly teed up the tax issue on ObamaCare. But Romney continues to have an issue with his own record on healthcare and I seriously doubt that the Obama campaign is going to let him dodge it through the debates and all else that's to come this fall. I think Romney would like health care to go away. He wants us to focus on the economy which we can all agree is a big problem ... though we can't all agree what to do about it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. the case against ObamaCare is simple...
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/opinion/brooks-a-choice-not-a-whine.html?_r=1&ref=davidbrooks

    the case against ObamaEconomics is simple...
    make small government a certainty

    ReplyDelete

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