Swing State Pres

Monday, July 16, 2012

Updated Dashboard...Plenty of New Polls...Take our VP Poll! (July 16, 2013)

Before we get to the numbers, I call your attention to a new poll for you….look to the right, under the Dashboard, and VOTE in the Republican VP poll!  I've given you 8 options….take your pick!  I've read that Romney will make his selection later this week, so get in ahead of the Mittster.

As mentioned, the Obama team did a fine job of pivoting off the weak jobs report through a barrage of anti-Mitt attacks that had Romney scrambling all week.  Romney finally went on the air on Friday and did five separate interviews on major stations.  I caught the CNN interview and while Mitt was composed and strong, his basic "defense" of the tax release position and Bain Capital issues simply sounded weak.  The questions linger:  Why not release more back years of taxes?  Why not just admit you were indeed responsible for Bain Capital through 2002 since you were the only stockholder, the chairman, the CEO and the President?  Cut and run, Mittster.  But he didn't, so the issues will continue to dog him.

And it shows up in the Dashboard, which continues to be "all blue" for Obama, and with lots of new national and swing state polling moving favorably in Obama's direction.

The Obameter.  The Obameter has dipped slightly to a +3.9 for Obama….still somewhat favorable for Obama.  The main driver was the stock market dropped a couple of hundred points (on average for the week) in response to the jobs numbers.  It just demonstrates how effective the Obama team response was.  The Obameter would have predicted a slight narrowing of the polls for Obama, but actually the opposite happened. 

Obameter







Baseline






1-Jan
18-Jun
25-Jun
2-Jul
9-Jul
16-Jul
Unemployment Rate
8.7
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
Consumer Confidence
65.0
64.9
64.9
62.0
62.0
62.0
Price of Gas (average for week)
3.32
3.59
3.49
3.41
3.47
3.49
Dow-Jones (average for week)
      12,076
      12,580
      12,724
      12,625
      12,886
      12,669
Romney Favorability (average)
38.0
44.0
42.7
42.8
45.7
45.3
"Events"
0
0
0
5
5
5







Unemployment Rate
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
Consumer Confidence
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Price of Gas (average for week)
0.0
-2.7
-1.7
-0.9
-1.5
-1.7
Dow-Jones (average for week)
0.0
5.0
6.5
5.5
8.1
5.9
Romney Favorability (average)
0.0
-6.0
-4.7
-4.8
-7.7
-7.3
"Events"
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0







OBAMETER
0.0
1.2
5.0
6.8
5.9
3.9
Obama versus Romney
1.1
-1.5
2.1
3.2
0.5
2.1

                 
The Charisma Factor.   Obama continues to have a comfortable lead in the charisma stakes, with a +6.9 net lead.  The "favorability" polling is not as frequent as the national preference polls, so the data tends to lag. It will be interesting to see if Romney takes a hit based on the Obama attacks.  Obama himself seems to have generated a reservoir of goodwill even when his policies are under attack.  (Romney used to play into that by saying Obama was "a good man" before lacerating him.  The conservatives told him to stop giving him even that much!)  Romney has worked hard to push his own positive ratings into the mid-40's….can they stay there?

Latest Polling.  There were tons of new polls this week….8 of them, including the daily tracking from Gallup and Rasmussen.  Five polls show Obama ahead by 2 to 7 points, two show Romney ahead by 1-2, and one tie.  On average, Obama is ahead by 2.1 points, a decent increase over the 0.5 showing last week.


Nat'l Polls
Obama
46.6%
Romney
44.5%

Swing States.  There were quite a few new state polls and all but one went Obama's way.  Virginia did a big flip to a +8 lead for Obama.  Wisconsin also jumped to a bigger Obama lead of 7 points.  Pennsylvania saw a slight widening from 6 to 7 points, and North Carolina turned into a dead heat.  Only Florida went Romney's way, cutting a narrow Obama lead down to less than a point.

Romney has been raising tons of money, but he cannot spend any of it until after the convention, and his kitty is actually running low.  Obama, on the other hand, is spending heavily in swing states, and perhaps this, in part, explains the strong showing.


Electoral
         Polling
 Since
6/15 

Votes
Obama
Romney
Obama +/-
Virginia
13
50.0
42.0
8.0
Pennsylvania
20
47.0
40.0
7.0
Wisconsin
10
50.5
43.5
7.0
Nevada
6
48.0
42.0
6.0
Ohio
18
47.0
41.0
6.0
Colorado
9
48.0
42.5
5.5
Michigan
16
45.7
44.7
1.0
Iowa
6
45.0
44.0
1.0
Florida
29
45.7
45.3
0.4
North Carolina
15
47.5
47.5
0.0
Missouri
10
42.0
49.0
-7.0
Arizona
11
41.0
54.0
-13.0

163


2.0


Electoral College Projection.   Obama now has a 5 – 8 point leads in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio and Colorado – six states worth 76 electoral votes.  Add that to his "solid" base of 205, and you get 281, well over the 270 threshold.  And he's directionally ahead in Michigan, Iowa and Florida and tied in North Carolina (and I give ties to the "charisma" leader).  This swing state dominance, such as it is, gives Obama a commanding electoral college lead…but the race feels a lot closer than this!


Solid
Swing
Total
Obama
205
142
347
Romney
170
21
191

Popular Vote Projection.  The popular vote lead has also stretched out a bit.


Vote
%
Obama
 66,209,646
50.9%
Romney
 61,768,126
47.5%
Other
   1,988,683
1.5%


As always, comments welcome!  And VOTE in the VP poll!


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