Today we take our first look at the races for the House of Representatives. Here is the makeup of the House in this current 112th Congress, with the Republicans in the majority by a mighty 49 seats.
| DEMS | 193 |
| REPS | 242 |
Of course everyone is up for re-election in November, which is why the House is recessing soon (October 5), so everyone can run back to their districts to campaign. But, also of course, not all 435 races will be equally contested. In fact, only 100+ races – 112 by my count – are actually "in play." The rest, by dint of historically strong blue or red districts, often gerrymandered for just that end, are virtually a sure thing for the incumbents.
To win a majority a party needs to win 218 seats. By my count, the Democrats have 149 "solid" seats while the Republicans have 174. Thus, of the 112 "up for grabs" races, the Democrats need to win 69 of them, or 62%, to win back the House. That is highly unlikely to happen.
Now when I say "by my count," what I really mean is that I have looked at all the major services (Cook, RealClearPolitics, HuffPo, etc.) who have assessed the races and come up with a consolidated view of each race.
And here is the outcome of that assessment….the Dems are going to make some modest inroads – up to 200 seats -- but will not come close to recapturing the House. Boehner, Cantor and the gang will continue to rule.
|
| Solid | Likely | Lean | Tossup | Total |
| DEMS | 149 | 21 | 22 | 8 | 200 |
| REPS | 174 | 24 | 28 | 9 | 235 |
Obviously much can happen in the next two months, and if either Presidential candidate begins to develop a bigger lead, those "coattails" can push a close race in that direction.
I have taken the liberty of listing out the 112 "in play" districts below. Keep in mind that there has been a great deal of redistricting due to the impact of the 2010 Census, and you may in fact be in a new district (we are). You should be able to find out via Google searching, but make sure you are looking for your new district, not the current one.
I'll be updating this a few times between now and election day, and when the returns some in you can follow along with this scorecard!
Wendy and I will be in the new New York 18th District. Our current rep is longtime Democrat Nita Lowey, but she is now running in the new 19th. But we will be in Nan Hayworth's district in the new year, if she wins. She is a Tea Party Republican, and we are (putting objectivity aside) working hard for her opponent, Sean Patrick Maloney, a former aide to Bill Clinton. More on this race from Wendy next week!
If any of you are in any of these districts and can share some insight, please do!
|
|
|
|
| Dem | Rep | Dem | Dem | Dem | Toss | Rep | Rep | Rep |
| State | Dist. | Incumb. | Party | Cand. | Cand. | Solid | Likely | Lean | Ups | Lean | Likely | Solid |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 149 | 21 | 22 | 17 | 28 | 24 | 174 |
| Arizona | 2 | Barber | D | Barber | McNally |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| California | 3 | Garamendi | D | Garamendi | Vann |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| California | 16 | Cardoza/Costa | D | Costa | Whelan |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| California | 33 | Waxman | D | Waxman | Bloomfield |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Colorado | 7 | Perlmutter | D | Perlmutter | Coors |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Connecticut | 4 | Himes | D | Himes | Obsitnik |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Illinois | 8 | Walsh | R | Duckworth | Walsh |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Iowa | 1 | Braley | D | Braley | Lange |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Iowa | 2 | Loebsack | D | Loebsack | Archer |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Maine | 2 | Michaud | D | Michaud | Raye |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Maryland | 6 | Bartlett | R | Delaney | Bartlett |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Minnesota | 1 | Walz | D | Walz | Quist |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Minnesota | 7 | Peterson | D | Peterson | Byberg |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| New Jersey | 6 | Pallone | D | Pallone | Little |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| New Mexico | 1 | Heinrich* | D | Grishman | Arnold-Jones |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| New York | 4 | McCarthy | D | McCarthy | Becker |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| New York | 17 | Lowey | D | Lowey | Carvin |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Oregon | 4 | DeFazio | D | DeFazio | Robinson |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Washington | 6 | Dicks* | D | Kilmer | Driscoll |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Washington | 10 | New seat | D | Heck | Muri |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| West Virginia | 3 | Rahall | D | Rahall | Snuffer |
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Arizona | 1 | New seat | D | Kirkpatrick | Patton |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Arizona | 9 | New seat | D | Sinema | Parker |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| California | 9 | McNerney | D | McNerney | Gill |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| California | 24 | Capps | D | Capps | Maldanado |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| California | 41 | New seat | D | Takano | Tavaglione |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| California | 47 | New seat | D | Lowenthal | DeLong |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Connecticut | 5 | Murphy* | D | Esty | Roraback |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Florida | 9 | New seat | D | Grayson | Long |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Florida | 22 | New seat | D | Frankel | Hasner |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Illinois | 10 | Dold | R | Schneider | Dold |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Illinois | 17 | Schilling | R | Bustos | Schilling |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Kentucky | 6 | Chandler | D | Chandler | Barr |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Mass. | 6 | Tierney | D | Tierney | Tisei |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Nevada | 4 | New seat | D | Horsford | Tarkanian |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| New Hamp. | 2 | Bass | R | Kuster | Bass |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| New York | 1 | Bishop | D | Bishop | Altshuler |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| New York | 21 | Owens | D | Owens | Doheny |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| New York | 24 | Buerkle | R | Maffei | Buerkle |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| New York | 25 | Slaughter | D | Slaughter | Brooks |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Rhode Island | 1 | Cicciline | D | Cicciline | Doherty |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Utah | 4 | Matheson | D | Matheson | Love |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| Washington | 1 | (vacant) | D | DelBene | x |
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
|
| California | 7 | Lungren | R | Bera | Lungren |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| California | 26 | Gallegly* | R | Brownley | Strickland |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| California | 52 | Bilbray | R | Peters | Bilbray |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Colorado | 6 | Coffman | R | Miklosi | Coffman |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Florida | 18 | West | R | Murphy | West |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Illinois | 11 | Biggert | R | Foster | Biggert |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Illinois | 12 | Costello* | D | Enyart | Plummer |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Iowa | 3 | Boswell/Latham | D/R | Boswell | Latham |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Minnesota | 8 | Cravaack | R | Nolan | Cravaack |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Nevada | 3 | Heck | R | Oceguera | Heck |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| New York | 18 | Hayworth | R | Maloney | Hayworth |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| New York | 19 | Gibson | R | Schreibman | Gibson |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| New York | 27 | Hochul | D | Hochul | Collins |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| North Car. | 7 | McIntyre | D | McIntyre | Rouzer |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Ohio | 16 | Sutton/Renacci | D/R | Sutton | Renacci |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Penn. | 12 | Critz/Altmire | D | Critz | Rothfus |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| Texas | 23 | Canseco | R | Gallego | Canseco |
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
|
| California | 10 | Denham | R | Hernandez | Denham |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Colorado | 3 | Tipton | R | Pace | Tipton |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Florida | 2 | Sutherland | R | Lawson | Sutherland |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Florida | 10 | Webster | R | Demings | Webster |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Florida | 16 | Buchanan | R | Fitzgerald | Buchanan |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Florida | 26 | Rivera | R | Garcia | Rivera |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Georgia | 12 | Barrow | D | Barrow | (primary) |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Illinois | 13 | Johnson* | R | Gill | Davis |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Indiana | 2 | Donnelly | D | Donnelly | Walorski |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Indiana | 8 | Buschon | R | Crooks | Buschon |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Iowa | 4 | King | R | Vilsack | King |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Michigan | 1 | Benishek | R | McDowell | Benishek |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Michigan | 11 | (vacant) | R | Taj | Bentivolio |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Michigan | 13 | Conyers | D | Conyers | Sawicki |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Montana | AL | Rehberg* | R | Gillan | Daines |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| New Hamp. | 1 | Guinta | R | Shea-Porter | Guinta |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| New Jersey | 3 | Runyon | R | Adler | Runyon |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| New York | 11 | Grimm | R | Murphy | Grimm |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| North Car. | 8 | Kissell | D | Kissell | Hudson |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| North Dakota | AL | Berg* | R | Cramer | Gulleson |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Ohio | 6 | Johnson | R | Wilson | Johnson |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Oklahoma | 2 | Boren* | D | Wallace | Mullin |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Penn. | 6 | Gerlach | R | Trivedi | Gerlach |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Penn. | 8 | Fitzpatrick | R | Boockvar | Fitzpatrick |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Texas | 14 | Paul* | R | Lampson | Weber |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Virginia | 2 | Rigell | R | Hirschbiel | Rigell |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Virginia | 5 | Hurt | R | Douglass | Hurt |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Wisconsin | 7 | Duffy | R | Kreitlow | Duffy |
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
|
| Arkansas | 1 | Crawford | R | Ellington | Crawford |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Arkansas | 4 | Ross* | D | Jeffress | Cotton |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| California | 21 | New seat | D | Hernandez | Valadao |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| California | 25 | McKeon | R | Rogers | McKeon |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| California | 36 | Mack | R | Ruiz | Mack |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| California | 39 | Royce | R | Chen | Royce |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| California | 45 | Campbell | R | Kang | Campbell |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Colorado | 4 | Gardner | R | Shaffer | Gardner |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Florida | 13 | Young | R | Ehrlich | Young |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Indiana | 5 | Burton | R | Reske | Burton |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Minnesota | 2 | Kline | R | Obermueller | Kline |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Missouri | 4 | Hartzler | R | Hensley | Hartzler |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Nevada | 2 | Amodei | R | Koepnick | Amodei |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| New Jersey | 7 | Lance | R | Chivukula | Lance |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| New York | 22 | Hinchey*/Hanna | D/R | Lamb | Hanna |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| New York | 23 | Reed | R | Shinigawa | Reed |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| North Car. | 9 | Myrick* | R | Roberts | Pittinger |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| North Car. | 11 | Shuler* | D | Rogers | Meadows |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Ohio | 7 | Gibbs | R | Healy-Abrams | Gibbs |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Ohio | 10 | Turner/Austria | R | Neuhardt | Turner |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Penn. | 7 | Meehan | R | Badey | Meehan |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Penn. | 18 | Murphy | R | Maggi | Murphy |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Tennessee | 4 | DesJarlais | R | Stewart | DesJarlais |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
| Wisconsin | 8 | Ribble | R | Wall | Ribble |
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Leave a comment