Swing State Pres

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

A Look at the House (September 12, 2012)

Today we take our first look at the races for the House of Representatives.  Here is the makeup of the House in this current 112th Congress, with the Republicans in the majority by a mighty 49 seats.

 

DEMS

193

REPS

242

 

Of course everyone is up for re-election in November, which is why the House is recessing soon (October 5), so everyone can run back to their districts to campaign.  But, also of course, not all 435 races will be equally contested.  In fact, only 100+ races – 112 by my count – are actually "in play."  The rest, by dint of historically strong blue or red districts, often gerrymandered for just that end, are virtually a sure thing for the incumbents.

 

To win a majority a party needs to win 218 seats.  By my count, the Democrats have 149 "solid" seats while the Republicans have 174.  Thus, of the 112 "up for grabs" races, the Democrats need to win 69 of them, or 62%, to win back the House.  That is highly unlikely to happen.

 

Now when I say "by my count," what I really mean is that I have looked at all the major services (Cook, RealClearPolitics, HuffPo, etc.) who have assessed the races and come up with a consolidated view of each race. 

 

And here is the outcome of that assessment….the Dems are going to make some modest inroads – up to 200 seats -- but will not come close to recapturing the House.  Boehner, Cantor and the gang will continue to rule.

 

 

Solid

Likely

Lean

Tossup

Total

DEMS

149

21

22

8

200

REPS

174

24

28

9

235

 

Obviously much can happen in the next two months, and if either Presidential candidate begins to develop a bigger lead, those "coattails" can push a close race in that direction.

 

I have taken the liberty of listing out the 112 "in play" districts below.  Keep in mind that there has been a great deal of redistricting due to the impact of the 2010 Census, and you may in fact be in a new district (we are).  You should be able to find out via Google searching, but make sure you are looking for your new district, not the current one.

 

I'll be updating this a few times between now and election day, and when the returns some in you can follow along with this scorecard!

 

Wendy and I will be in the new New York 18th District.  Our current rep is longtime Democrat Nita Lowey, but she is now running in the new 19th.  But we will be in Nan Hayworth's district in the new year, if she wins.  She is a Tea Party Republican, and we are (putting objectivity aside) working hard for her opponent, Sean Patrick Maloney, a former aide to Bill Clinton.  More on this race from Wendy next week!

 

If any of you are in any of these districts and can share some insight, please do!

 

 

 

 

 

Dem

Rep

Dem

Dem

Dem

Toss

Rep

Rep

Rep

State

Dist.

Incumb.

Party

Cand.

Cand.

Solid

Likely

Lean

Ups

Lean

Likely

Solid

 

 

 

 

 

 

149

21

22

17

28

24

174

Arizona

2

Barber

D

Barber

McNally

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

California

3

Garamendi

D

Garamendi

Vann

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

California

16

Cardoza/Costa

D

Costa

Whelan

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

California

33

Waxman

D

Waxman

Bloomfield

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Colorado

7

Perlmutter

D

Perlmutter

Coors

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Connecticut

4

Himes

D

Himes

Obsitnik

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Illinois

8

Walsh

R

Duckworth

Walsh

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Iowa

1

Braley

D

Braley

Lange

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Iowa

2

Loebsack

D

Loebsack

Archer

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Maine

2

Michaud

D

Michaud

Raye

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland

6

Bartlett

R

Delaney

Bartlett

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota

1

Walz

D

Walz

Quist

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota

7

Peterson

D

Peterson

Byberg

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

New Jersey

6

Pallone

D

Pallone

Little

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

New Mexico

1

Heinrich*

D

Grishman

Arnold-Jones

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

New York

4

McCarthy

D

McCarthy

Becker

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

New York

17

Lowey

D

Lowey

Carvin

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Oregon

4

DeFazio

D

DeFazio

Robinson

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Washington

6

Dicks*

D

Kilmer

Driscoll

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Washington

10

New seat

D

Heck

Muri

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

West Virginia

3

Rahall

D

Rahall

Snuffer

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona

1

New seat

D

Kirkpatrick

Patton

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Arizona

9

New seat

D

Sinema

Parker

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

California

9

McNerney

D

McNerney

Gill

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

California

24

Capps

D

Capps

Maldanado

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

California

41

New seat

D

Takano

Tavaglione

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

California

47

New seat

D

Lowenthal

DeLong

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Connecticut

5

Murphy*

D

Esty

Roraback

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Florida

9

New seat

D

Grayson

Long

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Florida

22

New seat

D

Frankel

Hasner

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Illinois

10

Dold

R

Schneider

Dold

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Illinois

17

Schilling

R

Bustos

Schilling

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Kentucky

6

Chandler

D

Chandler

Barr

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Mass.

6

Tierney

D

Tierney

Tisei

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Nevada

4

New seat

D

Horsford

Tarkanian

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

New Hamp.

2

Bass

R

Kuster

Bass

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

New York

1

Bishop

D

Bishop

Altshuler

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

New York

21

Owens

D

Owens

Doheny

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

New York

24

Buerkle

R

Maffei

Buerkle

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

New York

25

Slaughter

D

Slaughter

Brooks

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Rhode Island

1

Cicciline

D

Cicciline

Doherty

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Utah

4

Matheson

D

Matheson

Love

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

Washington

1

(vacant)

D

DelBene

x

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

California

7

Lungren

R

Bera

Lungren

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

California

26

Gallegly*

R

Brownley

Strickland

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

California

52

Bilbray

R

Peters

Bilbray

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Colorado

6

Coffman

R

Miklosi

Coffman

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Florida

18

West

R

Murphy

West

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Illinois

11

Biggert

R

Foster

Biggert

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Illinois

12

Costello*

D

Enyart

Plummer

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Iowa

3

Boswell/Latham

D/R

Boswell

Latham

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Minnesota

8

Cravaack

R

Nolan

Cravaack

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Nevada

3

Heck

R

Oceguera

Heck

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

New York

18

Hayworth

R

Maloney

Hayworth

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

New York

19

Gibson

R

Schreibman

Gibson

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

New York

27

Hochul

D

Hochul

Collins

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

North Car.

7

McIntyre

D

McIntyre

Rouzer

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Ohio

16

Sutton/Renacci

D/R

Sutton

Renacci

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Penn.

12

Critz/Altmire

D

Critz

Rothfus

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

Texas

23

Canseco

R

Gallego

Canseco

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

California

10

Denham

R

Hernandez

Denham

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Colorado

3

Tipton

R

Pace

Tipton

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Florida

2

Sutherland

R

Lawson

Sutherland

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Florida

10

Webster

R

Demings

Webster

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Florida

16

Buchanan

R

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Florida

26

Rivera

R

Garcia

Rivera

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Georgia

12

Barrow

D

Barrow

(primary)

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Illinois

13

Johnson*

R

Gill

Davis

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Indiana

2

Donnelly

D

Donnelly

Walorski

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Indiana

8

Buschon

R

Crooks

Buschon

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Iowa

4

King

R

Vilsack

King

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Michigan

1

Benishek

R

McDowell

Benishek

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Michigan

11

(vacant)

R

Taj

Bentivolio

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Michigan

13

Conyers

D

Conyers

Sawicki

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Montana

AL

Rehberg*

R

Gillan

Daines

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

New Hamp.

1

Guinta

R

Shea-Porter

Guinta

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

New Jersey

3

Runyon

R

Adler

Runyon

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

New York

11

Grimm

R

Murphy

Grimm

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

North Car.

8

Kissell

D

Kissell

Hudson

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

North Dakota

AL

Berg*

R

Cramer

Gulleson

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Ohio

6

Johnson

R

Wilson

Johnson

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Oklahoma

2

Boren*

D

Wallace

Mullin

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Penn.

6

Gerlach

R

Trivedi

Gerlach

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Penn.

8

Fitzpatrick

R

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Texas

14

Paul*

R

Lampson

Weber

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Virginia

2

Rigell

R

Hirschbiel

Rigell

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Virginia

5

Hurt

R

Douglass

Hurt

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Wisconsin

7

Duffy

R

Kreitlow

Duffy

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

Arkansas

1

Crawford

R

Ellington

Crawford

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Arkansas

4

Ross*

D

Jeffress

Cotton

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

California

21

New seat

D

Hernandez

Valadao

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

California

25

McKeon

R

Rogers

McKeon

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

California

36

Mack

R

Ruiz

Mack

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

California

39

Royce

R

Chen

Royce

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

California

45

Campbell

R

Kang

Campbell

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Colorado

4

Gardner

R

Shaffer

Gardner

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Florida

13

Young

R

Ehrlich

Young

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Indiana

5

Burton

R

Reske

Burton

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Minnesota

2

Kline

R

Obermueller

Kline

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Missouri

4

Hartzler

R

Hensley

Hartzler

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Nevada

2

Amodei

R

Koepnick

Amodei

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

New Jersey

7

Lance

R

Chivukula

Lance

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

New York

22

Hinchey*/Hanna

D/R

Lamb

Hanna

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

New York

23

Reed

R

Shinigawa

Reed

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

North Car.

9

Myrick*

R

Roberts

Pittinger

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

North Car.

11

Shuler*

D

Rogers

Meadows

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Ohio

7

Gibbs

R

Healy-Abrams

Gibbs

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Ohio

10

Turner/Austria

R

Neuhardt

Turner

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Penn.

7

Meehan

R

Badey

Meehan

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Penn.

18

Murphy

R

Maggi

Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Tennessee

4

DesJarlais

R

Stewart

DesJarlais

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

Wisconsin

8

Ribble

R

Wall

Ribble

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

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