Swing State Pres

Monday, September 10, 2012

Dashboard Update....That Sound You Hear... (September 10, 2012)

That very loud thudding noise you are hearing is the sound of a giant bounce…the bounce from the Democratic Convention.  The returns are not final but they are unmistakable.  Obama, with a little help from his friends (basically Michelle and the Big Dog), is receiving a substantial boost from the convention, and it does not appear to have been blunted by the weak unemployment report on Friday.

 

Let's take a look in a bit more detail.  These are the data from two main daily tracking polls, Gallup and Rasmussen, for time periods during and after the Democratic Convention (Obama spoke on 9/6) and the week before.  Looking at Gallup. you can see that Obama's margin improved from +1 to +5, an increase of 4 points in this time.  The data includes some polling days from before the Obama and Clinton speeches, so in theory the swing may even increase as those earlier pre-speech days are eliminated.

 

Rasmussen's daily polling is consolidated in a tighter window, just 3 days, and thus provides a cleaner pre/post-convention read right now.  It is comparing three days following Obama's speech versus the same three days the week before.  And the trend is clear…what had been a 4-point margin in favor of Romney got reversed to a 5-point margin for Obama, a swing of a whopping 9 margin points.

 

Poll

Dates

Obama

Romney

Margin

Gallup Daily Tracking

9/3 - 9/9

49

44

+5

Gallup Daily Tracking

8/27 - 9/2

47

46

+1

Increase in Margin

 

 

 

+4

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen Daily Tracking

9/8 - 9/10

50

45

+5

Rasmussen Daily Tracking

9/1 - 9/3

44

48

-4

Increase in Margin

 

 

 

+9

 

In addition, Nate Silver also looked at IPSOS and Rand polls and concluded they are each showing the potential of 8-9 point swings.

 

Now, this does not mean the race is over.  This data certainly confirms what most everyone had already concluded, that the Democratic Convention was a big win and the Republican Convention did not move the needle.  But while Obama is now in a more commanding position, such convention bounces often recede in time.  We have four big debates in October (three presidential and one vice-presidential) that typically have larger viewing audiences than the conventions and opportunities for gaffes galore.  Plus, who knows what world events may intervene.  Four years ago, it was about this time (September 15, 2008) that Lehman Brothers failed and the economic collapse began in earnest.

 

Just for your interest, Gallup's poll indicated that Obama's speech was slightly better than Romney's, with 43% rating it good or excellent, versus 38% for Romney's.  These were the two lowest rated speeches since Gallup began asking the question in 1996.  Bill Clinton's speech got a very high 56%, which happens to be higher than any recent nominee's speech except for Obama's in 2008 (58%).  The Convention itself had a net +5% for Obama, meaning 43% thought they were more likely to vote for Obama after the convention versus 38% less likely, a net of +5 points, versus the Republican's net of +2 for Romney, also a record low.  This seems quite consistent with the "bounces."

 

One other data point….since the convention, three polls (Gallup, Rasmussen and CNN) have all had Obama's approval ratings at 50+%.  This is often seen as a bellweather mark for re-election.  Obama has been lurking in the 45-47% range all year, and this is the first time he has consistently broken through.

 

The Obameter.  The Obameter is back to BLUE.   While gas prices continued to rise, and Romney's popularity grew in the wake of his convention, I have to award a 10-point "event" bonus to Obama based on the convention bounces noted above.

 

OBAMETER

Baseline

 

 

 

 

1-Jan

25-Aug

2-Sep

9-Sep

Unemployment Rate

8.7

8.3

8.3

8.1

Consumer Confidence

65.0

65.4

60.6

60.6

Price of Gas (average for week)

3.32

3.80

3.84

3.90

Dow-Jones (average for week)

    12,076

       13,173

       13,085

       13,155

Romney Favorability (average)

38.0

45.8

43.6

48.0

"Events"

0

0

0

10

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate

8.7

4

4

6

Consumer Confidence

65

0

-4

-4

Price of Gas (average for week)

3.32

-5

-5

-6

Dow-Jones (average for week)

    12,076

11

10

11

Romney Favorability (average)

38

-8

-6

-10

"Events"

0

0

0

10

 

 

 

 

 

OBAMETER

0.0

2.8

-1.1

6.6

Obama versus Romney

1.1

1.3

0.3

3.3

 

The Charisma Factor.   Romney has actually taken the lead in the "Charisma Factor" but this is largely a timing issue.  The latest "favorability" polls all took place post-Republican and pre-Democratic convention (they are taken less frequently than voting preference polls).  I suspect this measure will turn back to blue in the next few weeks, if not next week.

 

 

Fav

Unfav

Net

Obama

49.0

48.5

0.5

Romney

48.0

45.5

2.5

Net

 

 

-2.0

 

Latest National Polling.  The national polling data noted above is, indeed, right up to date, and Obama has taken a significant lead of three points (including a new CNN poll as well as Gallup and Rasmussen).  Plus Obama reached 49%, so close to the magic 50% mark.

 

 

Nat'l Polls

Obama

49.0%

Romney

45.7%

Diff

3.0%

 

Swing States.   The swing state numbers are in flux as they represent a mix of (largely) pre- and (a few) post-convention polls.  It would be best to give them another week to shake out the convention impacts.  One polls of note had Romney up in Ohio by 3 points, which is perhaps the best news he has received in the last few weeks, especially since it was taken on 9/2, after both conventions.  We'll see if that holds.  As of now, the mish-mosh still has Obama up in 9 of the 12 swing states, with a 3+ point margin in 5 of them, and a 1.5 point lead.

 

10-Sep

Electoral

Polling

Since

1-Aug

 

Votes

Obama

Romney

Obama +/-

Pennsylvania

20

50.0

41.0

9.0

New Hampshire

4

51.0

45.0

6.0

Michigan

16

50.0

45.0

5.0

Colorado

9

49.0

46.0

3.0

Nevada

6

50.0

47.0

3.0

Virginia

13

48.5

46.0

2.5

Iowa

6

47.0

45.0

2.0

Wisconsin

10

48.0

47.3

0.7

Florida

29

47.5

47.5

0.0

North Carolina

15

45.3

47.3

-2.0

Ohio

18

44.0

47.0

-3.0

Missouri

10

43.7

49.7

-6.0

 

156

 

 

1.5

 

Electoral College Projection.   Thus Obama's overall projected Electoral College margin, while narrowing to 90 delegates, remains strong. 

 

 

Solid

Swing

Total

Obama

201

113

314

Romney

181

43

224

 

Popular Vote Projection.  Obama's lead in the projected popular vote is now 1.8 points, and he continues to hold a bare majority of voters. 

 

 

Vote

%

Obama

 65,109,127

50.1%

Romney

 62,834,207

48.3%

Other

   1,988,683

1.5%

 

 

 

As always, comments welcome! 

 

 

2 comments:

  1. Model adjustment for
    "likely" required?
    http://news.yahoo.com/obama-gains-convention-boost-not-among-likely-voters-040236784--abc-news-politics.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A few thoughts on an excellent point.

      Rasmussen reports only Likely Voters (LV), and they showed the +9 swing.

      Gallup does only Registered Voters (RV). Nate Silver reports that the gap is usually 2 points between RV and LV, favoring Republicans.

      The ABC News poll referenced in the article comes up on realclearpolitics.com as a LV poll, so that will be how I use it in the database.

      Best bet is Obama is probably up around 3 points now.

      Basically, while LV may be a better measure, the article is correct that getting the "RV not LV's" to vote is a turnout/ground game. I think it is safe to assume some of those "RV not LV's" will actually vote due to that effect.

      Good question/comment!

      Delete

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