Swing State Pres

Monday, September 26, 2016

BTRTN Snapshot: GOP Improves Position in Senate and House Races

Tom sneaks in a Senate and House Snapshot update to kill time in the run-up to the Big Debate.

Both the Senate and the House races have moved somewhat rightward over the last month.  The Senate has moved by just enough to tip the BTRTN Snapshot in favor of the GOP, while the House now sees a lesser Dem pick-up than a month ago.

SENATE

The race to control the Senate is at a razor thin margin, with nine races “in play” among the 34 elections.  As of this moment, the BTRTN Senate Snapshot has the GOP retaining control of the Senate, regardless of who wins the presidential election, by a 51-49 margin. 

The nine races in play break down like this:

·         There are Democrat Lean races, in Wisconsin, which is a near Solid, Indiana and Illinois.  The Dem candidates, Russ Feingold, Evan Bayh and Tammy Duckworth, respectively, all have leads in the 4-8 point range and have led their races fairly consistently.  All three are “flips” where the current office-holder is Republican.

·         There are two GOP Lean races, Florida (with Marco Rubio) and Nevada (Joe Heck).  Rubio is a near Solid at this point, and Heck is moving in that direction.  Nevada would be a flip of Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat (Reid is retiring).

·         And that leaves the four toss-ups:  Pennsylvania, which is ever-so-slightly tilting Blue, and North Carolina, New Hampshire and Missouri, which all slightly favor the GOP candidate.

Since our last view on August 28, only one state has shifted from one party to the other:  New Hampshire, where incumbent Kelly Ayotte has moved ahead in her race with Maggie Hassan.  We have also changed the BTRTN rating on four other states:  Pennsylvania (Lean D to Toss-up D), Nevada (Toss-up R to Lean R), Ohio (Lean R to Solid R) and North Carolina (Lean R to Toss-up R), the only one of the five changes that moved leftward, that is, in the Democrat’s direction.  North Carolina has become an utterly crucial battleground state.

For the Dems to regain control of the Senate, they have to win two of the four toss-up states, assuming everyone holds their “Leans” and Hillary Clinton wins the White House.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
Senate
August 28
September 25
DEM TOTAL
50 (+4)
49 (+3)
Dem Holdover
36
36
Dem Solid
9
9
Dem Lean
5
3
Dem Toss-up
0
1
GOP Toss-up
2
3
GOP Lean
3
2
GOP Solid
15
16
GOP Holdover
30
30
GOP TOTAL
50 (-4)
51 (-4)



Senate By State
Latest Polls                   as of Aug 28
BTRTN
CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,     NY,OR,VT,WA

Solid D
Wisconsin
Feingold (D) + 8
Lean D
Indiana
Bayh (D) + 4
Lean D
Illinois
Duckworth (D) + 4
Lean D
Pennsylvania
McGinty (D) + 0.3
Toss-up D
North Carolina
Burr (R) + 1
Toss-up R
New Hampshire
Ayotte (R) + 2
Toss-up R
Missouri
Blunt (R) + 3
Toss-up R
Nevada
Heck (R) + 4
Lean R
Florida
Rubio (R) + 6
Lean R
AK,AL,AZ,GA,IA,KS,KY, LA,ND,OH, SC,SD

Solid R


HOUSE

The House race has also drifted rightward, using the Generic Ballot and the BTRTN proprietary regression model.  The Dems lead in the Generic Ballot has fallen from 6.1 points to 3.6 points, and thus the model is predicting only a 14 seat pick-up for the Dems, leaving the Dems still considerably in the minority by a 233/202 margin.

HOUSE SNAPSHOT
House
As of Aug 29
As of Sep 25
Generic Ballot
Dem + 6.1
Dem + 3.6



Democrats
210 (+22)
202 (+14)
Republicans
225 (-22)
233 (-14)


******************************
Below are all of the Senate races.  In the BTRTN Rating column, BOLD indicates a change in the rating.  As stated, all five changes except North Carolina have been in the GOP's direction.

SENATE SNAPSHOT
State
Inc. Party
Incumbent
Dem
GOP
BTRTN  Rating as of 9/25
Hold/    Flip
Not running

46-54




California
D
Boxer
Harris
Sanchez (D)
Solid D
Hold
New York
D
Schumer
Schumer
Long
Solid D
Hold
Maryland
D
Mikulski *
Van Hollen
Szeliga
Solid D
Hold
Hawaii
D
Schatz
Schatz
Carroll
Solid D
Hold
Oregon
D
Wyden
Wyden
Callaghan
Solid D
Hold
Vermont
D
Leahy
Leahy
Milne
Solid D
Hold
Connecticut
D
Blumenthal
Blumenthal
Carter
Solid D
Hold
Washington
D
Murray
Murray
Vance
Solid D
Hold
Colorado
D
Bennet
Bennet
Glenn
Solid D
Hold
Wisconsin
R
Johnson
Feingold
Johnson
Lean D
Flip
Indiana
R
Coats
Bayh
Young
Lean D
Flip
Illinois
R
Kirk
Duckworth
Kirk
Lean D
Flip
Pennsylvania
R
Toomey
McGinty
Toomey
TOSS-UP D
Flip
North Carolina
R
Burr
Ross
Burr
TOSS-UP R
Hold
Missouri
R
Blunt
Kander
Blunt
Toss-up R
Hold
New Hamp.
R
Ayotte
Hassan
Ayotte
TOSS-UP R
Hold
Nevada
D
Reid *
Cortez Masto
Heck
LEAN R
Flip
Florida
R
Rubio
(Murphy)
Rubio
Lean R
Hold
Kentucky
R
Paul
Gray
Paul
Solid R
Hold
Ohio
R
Portman
Strickland
Portman
SOLID R
Hold
Arkansas
R
Boozman
Eldridge
Boozman
Solid R
Hold
Iowa
R
Grassley
Judge
Grassley
Solid R
Hold
Georgia
R
Isakson
Barksdale
Isakson
Solid R
Hold
Kansas
R
Moran
Wiesner
Moran
Solid R
Hold
S. Carolina
R
Scott
Dixon
Scott
Solid R
Hold
Arizona
R
McCain
Kirkpatrick
McCain
Solid R
Hold
Utah
R
Lee
Snow
Lee
Solid R
Hold
North Dakota
R
Hoeven
Grassheim
Hoeven
Solid R
Hold
Oklahoma
R
Lankford
Workman
Lankford
Solid R
Hold
South Dakota
R
Thune
Williams
Thune
Solid R
Hold
Alabama
R
Shelby
Crumpton
Shelby
Solid R
Hold
Alaska
R
Murkowski
TBD
Murkowski
Solid R
Hold
Idaho
R
Crapo
Sturgill
Crapo
Solid R
Hold
Louisiana
R
Vitter
24 candidates
   Runoff  Dec.
Solid R
Hold


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