Friday, November 4, 2016

BTRTN's 50-State Electoral College Snapshot #10: Clinton Maintains Lead, Though With More States Now in Play; Has She Weathered the Worst?

Here is the short answer:  Hillary Clinton is maintaining her lead; while her swing state support is softening, we have not flipped any states since Tuesday.  The current BTRTN Snapshot (#10) remains Clinton 323-215.

The key bullet points:

·        The race is tighter.  We have changed the ratings on eight states and seven of them have moved in Trump’s direction.
·        Trump still faces formidable odds, but he does have a few paths to 270; there is even one highly unlikely path to a 269-269 tie
·         Having said that, the Trump momentum generated by the Comey letter is showing signs of stalling.  Time is helping Clinton now; if there are no other notable fresh email news bombs in the coming days, the propensity of the race to revert to the “norm” when the seas are calmer will help her in the final days

The state polls define the electoral vote, which is all that matters. But the national polls are instructive when it comes to trends and momentum.  And they capture the “Comey effect” nicely, which we indicated was in the 1-2 point range and that is borne out below.  The huge margin that Clinton maintained in mid-October was already receding before the Comey letter came out.  It dropped down further post-Comey, and, as of today, it is a 3-point margin.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: NATIONAL POLLS
Week Ending
Oct 1
Oct 8
Oct 15
Oct 23
Oct 31
Nov 4
Clinton
47.0
48.3
49.1
49.3
48.2
46.8
Trump
42.5
42.7
40.5
42.4
43.6
43.6
Other/NA
10.5
9.0
10.4
8.3
8.2
9.6
Margin
4.5
5.6
8.6
6.8
4.7
3.2

At the state level, as stated, we have not turned any states from Blue to Red since Tuesday, but North Carolina and New Hampshire are now Toss-up D’s, and Michigan and Pennsylvania are now Lean D’s.  Thus the composition of Clinton’s 323 delegates is softening to fewer Solids and more in play, but she is holding everywhere as of now, with a cushion against losing some of those races – a cushion Trump does not enjoy.

PRESIDENT SNAPSHOT: ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Electoral College
Oct 31
Nov 4
CLINTON - TOTAL
323
323
Clinton - Solid
263
223
Clinton - Lean
25
46
Clinton - Tossup
35
54
Trump - Tossup
41
27
Trump - Lean
38
24
Trump - Solid
136
164
TRUMP - TOTAL
215
215



Swing States (EC)
Latest Polls as of Oct 9
BTRTN Rating
Pennsylvania (20)
Clinton +4
Lean D
Colorado (9)
Clinton +4
Lean D
Michigan (16)
Clinton +3
Lean D
Maine CD2 (1)
Clinton +3
Lean D
New Hampshire (4)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
Florida (29)
Clinton +2
Toss-up D
N. Carolina (15)
Clinton +1
Toss-up D
Nevada (6)
Clinton +1
Toss-up D
Georgia (16)
Trump +2
Toss-up R
Arizona (11)
Trump +3
Toss-up R
Ohio (18)
Trump +4
Lean R
Iowa (6)
Trump +7
Lean R

You can see the 269-269 scenario clearly here.  If Trump protects all four of his Leans and Toss-ups and then manages to pick up all four of Clinton’s Toss-ups, he gets to his 269.  That is called an “inside straight.”

The key question is momentum.  Is Trump still surging?  Here is why we think “not.”  We have looked at each of the national daily tracking polls and here is what we are seeing.  As stated, since they are national polls, they are not much good in determining the electoral vote, and all campaigns ignore them.  But they are pretty good on momentum.

You can see all three polling services show the Clinton/Trump margin moving toward Trump from pre-Comey (Oct. 27) to early this week (Oct 30 and Nov 1), but over the past two days (Nov 2-3) have begun to reverse and move back toward Clinton.  (Ignore the actual margins of these polls -- and the LA Times poll is a notorious outlier favoring Trump – it is the trend that is noteworthy and reliable.)

NATIONAL DAILY TRACKING POLLS CLINTON MINUS TRUMP MARGIN
Tracking period ending on>>>>>
Oct 27
Oct 30
Nov 1
Nov 2/3
IDB/TIPP
3
2
0
1
ABC News
2
-1
2
3
LA Times
-2
-3
-5
-4

In short, we continue to believe that Hillary Clinton will win, and it is possible that she has weathered the worst of the Comey calamity.  But more to come in the next few days, as Donald Trump attempts to pull off the greatest comeback of them all, all brought on by one questionable deed by one man, FBI Director James Comey – an act that has been condemned by Bush Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez as well as Republican Iowa Senator Charles Grassley, the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and noted conservative writer George Will.  Stay tuned….


1 comment:

  1. PA lean? In your dreams. We'll be going blue again this year, thank you very much. Hillary leads comfortably and so does Katie. We have a super GOTV team here. We're getting this done.

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